40 Years of Iran's Economy in the Mirror of Statistics and Charts

On February 11, 2019, the Islamic Republic celebrated the fortieth anniversary of the revolution. Since 1979, Iran's economy has faced significant turbulence, particularly during the Iran-Iraq war, international sanctions during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's presidency, and the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018. According to assessments by the International Monetary Fund, Iran's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, based on 'Purchasing Power Parity' (PPP), will reach $1.627 trillion 'international dollars', but based on the U.S. dollar, it will be approximately $333.6 billion. GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity (billion international dollars): GDP based on the U.S. dollar means the annual value of goods and services produced in Iran based on the U.S. dollar. However, there is another method for estimating GDP: calculating it by 'Purchasing Power Parity'. This is because the value of a specific good or service based on the U.S. dollar in the U.S. and based on the equivalent rial value in Iran is not equal. This issue is true for other countries as well. For example, with one dollar currently equivalent to 130,000 rials, in Iran, one can buy five loaves of bread or pay for a taxi ride over a specific distance, but the value of those same five loaves of bread or taxi fare in the U.S. might be three dollars, in the UK four dollars, and in China 1.5 dollars. A 40-year system caught in the grip of ten misfortunes. The Purchasing Power Parity rate is the exchange rate based on which one country's money is converted to another country's money to buy a specific volume of goods and services in both countries. This article will address Iran's GDP over the past 40 years based on both methods. GDP based on the U.S. dollar (billion dollars): Of course, in the absence of a transparent system, the lack of international auditing and ranking companies in Iran, reliance on government statistics, the central bank, or the Iranian Statistics Center, high inflation rates, significant currency fluctuations, and multiple exchange rates, subsidies, etc., have caused the assessments of international organizations like the IMF, World Bank, OPEC, etc., regarding Iran's GDP to differ in both calculation methods and in some years, such as the late 1980s and early 1990s, to have several-fold discrepancies. On the other hand, the rate of consumer price growth (inflation) in Iran has been much lower than the growth rate of the dollar against the rial. One U.S. dollar was worth 70 rials at the beginning of the revolution, but now it is worth 130,000 rials. This means it has increased by 1857 times. The inflation rate and its comparison with the growth of the dollar and international dollar against the rial: In any case, the basis of this report is the statistics of the International Monetary Fund, and the statistics also cover the outlook for 2020. According to this international organization, Iran's GDP over the past 40 years has increased by approximately 5.5 times based on Purchasing Power Parity and approximately 3.6 times based on the U.S. dollar, but this does not mean that the Iranian people have become wealthier or that Iran's share of the global economy has increased. According to the IMF's assessment, Iran's GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity will only decrease by 3.6% in 2019, but based on the U.S. dollar, it will decrease by about 22.4%, falling from $430 billion in 2018 to below $334 billion. To better clarify the state of Iran's economy, it is useful to look at the 'per capita' GDP of Iran and compare it with the world, the Middle East, and countries like Russia, Turkey, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. Iran's population has nearly doubled over the past 40 years, and this growth will continue. Iran's population (million people): According to the IMF's assessment, Iran's per capita GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity has increased by about 240% over the past 40 years, which is in line with the growth of this index in the Middle East and North Africa. Iran's per capita GDP based on the U.S. dollar has also increased by just over 85% over the past 40 years. As can be seen, the growth rate of Iran's 'per capita' GDP is much lower than the growth of GDP itself, which is due to the high population increase in the country. Comparing Iran's per capita GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity with Middle Eastern and North African countries (international dollars): As seen in the chart, the growth of per capita GDP in Iran and Middle Eastern and North African countries based on Purchasing Power Parity has been almost identical over the past 40 years. Now let’s look at Iran's per capita GDP and the world based on the U.S. dollar. The index shows that growth in Iran has been much lower than the global average. Iran's per capita GDP and the world (U.S. dollars): Now let’s make another comparison regarding Iran's per capita GDP and some surrounding countries. For example, Iraq and Saudi Arabia and Russia, like Iran, are heavily dependent on oil revenues. On the other hand, Turkey had $43 billion in oil and gas imports last year and has a similar population to Iran. Comparing the growth rates of per capita GDP in these countries based on Purchasing Power Parity shows that their growth over the past 40 years has been much higher than Iran's. The IMF has provided statistics for Russia after 1990 and for Iraq after 2003, but it is interesting in comparison. Iran's per capita GDP and some regional countries based on Purchasing Power Parity (international dollars): However, if we consider per capita GDP based on the U.S. dollar, Iran's situation is even worse than Iraq's. Iraq, despite the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime, war, conflict with ISIS, and assassination, is currently in a better position in terms of per capita GDP based on the U.S. dollar and will likely improve in the coming years. Iran's per capita GDP and some regional countries based on the U.S. dollar: However, the most important factor is the comparison of Iran's share of the global economy over the past 40 years. Statistics show that Iran's share of the global economy was about 1.9% at the beginning of the revolution, but now it has fallen to about 1.2%, and this decline will continue in the coming years. Iran's share of the global economy (percentage): In this context, the Iranian economy; escaping from recession, through budgets that lack strength. Who pays the cost of the lack of budget transparency in Iran? A 40-year system caught in the grip of ten misfortunes. The National Development Fund; does Khamenei play the role of Ahmadinejad? Severe government repression and the danger of 'underground' protests. What doctors and eyewitnesses recount about the injured in the protests. The limitations of China-Iran relations amid protests are becoming apparent. 1. Summoning and interrogating the directors of the House of Cinema and several filmmakers. 2. Accounts from three eyewitnesses of the massacre and the situation in several cities in Isfahan province; 'like war-torn areas'. 3. The passing of the last Mossad representative in Tehran amid the Iran crisis. 4. Trump announced an agreement to hold a meeting about Greenland in Davos. 5. Trump emphasized 'stopping executions in Iran': we do not know what will happen in the future.