74% of Iran's Oil Export Budget Achieved in Five Months

Despite a significant increase in Iran's oil exports and the government taking half of the National Development Fund's share from oil export revenues, the oil export budget in the first five months of this year has only been realized at 74%. On Tuesday, October 1, the Tasnim news agency reported, citing customs statistics, that the country's oil export revenues reached $20 billion in the first five months of this year, with the government's share amounting to 131 trillion tomans, equivalent to 74% of the oil export budget for the first five months of 1403. The 26% shortfall in Iran's oil export budget comes at a time when the National Development Fund's share from oil revenues was previously 40%, but with the government's permission from Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, the Fund's share was reduced to 20%, and the government's share from oil sales increased to 65%. The Planning and Budget Organization had reported that the realization of oil export revenues in the first five months of last year was 50%; thus, although the oil budget deficit has somewhat improved this year, it still persists. The government's gas export budget revenue in the first five months of this year was also 9% higher than expected, but given the onset of severe gas shortages in the country in autumn and winter, it is expected that this revenue section will also face deficits and non-realization for the entire year of 1403. Iran's oil exports reached 'the highest figure in five years' last month. According to the annual report of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iran's oil export revenues after the JCPOA agreement in 2015 reached about $72 billion, but with the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, this figure fell below $8 billion in 2020. With the coming to power of the Biden administration, Iran's oil export revenues increased each year, surpassing $41 billion in 2023, without considering oil discounts and costs of circumventing sanctions, which is $2.1 billion more than in 2022. However, Iranian customs statistics indicate that the oil export revenues for the previous year were $35 billion and 870 million, indicating that over $5 billion of the value of Iran's oil exports was lost in the process of circumventing sanctions. Iranian customs also reported oil export revenues for the first half of the current solar year to be slightly over $23 billion. OPEC statistics show that the total exports of crude oil, gas condensates, and petroleum products from Iran last year were approximately 1 million and 730 thousand barrels per day, which has increased two and a half times compared to the beginning of the Biden administration. This figure was about 2.5 million barrels per day before U.S. sanctions.