A Newspaper's Account of Statistical Manipulation in Government; Central Bank and Statistical Center's Claims of a 24% Decrease in Inflation are Fabricated

An Iranian newspaper criticized the reported 'statistical manipulation' by government institutions, citing an economic researcher who described the reported figures about a claimed decrease of over 24 percentage points in inflation since the beginning of the year 1402 as 'mocking the indices.' Hamidreza Ghasemi, an economic researcher, told the 'Asr-e Eghtesad' newspaper that 'these indices are torturing the statistics to reach a number that creates more of a joke and, God forbid, ridicule.' Regarding the fabricated statistics of decreasing inflation, he stated that 'the reported figures do not reflect what we feel in people's lives, in investments in various markets, and in the aspect of the middle class becoming poorer.' Additionally, Gholamreza Alizadeh, a researcher and university lecturer, emphasized that 'the reported statistics are artificial' and noted that 'we [Islamic Republic experts] usually adjust the statistics as we wish, either inflating or deflating them to change them.' Alizadeh highlighted the contradiction between the statistics provided by the Statistical Center and the Central Bank, saying, 'How contradictory the two major statistical organizations are, with the Statistical Center announcing one inflation rate and the Central Bank announcing another, and there is still a dispute between these two institutions over the authority to provide statistics.' Criticizing the claims of Islamic Republic officials about fabricated statistics, he remarked, 'One of the managers, despite the flood of people's cars, says it's nothing, just flooding, which is very bad because we are in a situation where information circulates very quickly through satellites and social media.' Alizadeh discussed the claim of decreasing inflation, stating that 'inflation is usually calculated from about 400 items, and it is possible to replace significantly impactful items with others, which affects the inflation rate.' He cited the housing problem as an example, saying that 'the average price per square meter of housing in Tehran has reached about 81 million tomans,' while 'currently, housing rents in metropolitan areas and large cities have no correlation with incomes.' He emphasized that 'when it is said that inflation has decreased from 15% to 10%, it means that the rate of price growth has decreased from 15% to 10%; thus, a decrease in inflation does not mean that goods are becoming cheaper, but rather that the speed of price growth is slowing down.' This university lecturer discussed the selective approach of Islamic Republic officials in announcing fabricated statistics, stating that 'statistics are the most scientific methods by which one can lie,' adding that 'sometimes statistics are presented point by point, sometimes monthly, sometimes comparing half-year periods, whichever serves our interests is how we take the statistics.' He noted that in the Islamic Republic's institutions, 'the statistician considers factors that reflect the organization's performance positively,' stating that 'as a result, instead of conducting statistical analysis, we engage in statistical fabrication, which has led to our policymaking and planning being based on unrealistic algorithms.' The Iranian economy has faced numerous challenges in recent years, including high inflation. Islamic Republic officials and state media attempt to present the inflation rate of 40.7% as an 'achievement for themselves.' They refer to the point-to-point decrease in inflation throughout the year 1402, claiming it reflects the effectiveness of government policies; however, experts believe that the annual inflation rate is a more accurate indicator of the inflation situation in Iran, as it shows the average price increase over a year. Experts have repeatedly emphasized that governments in the Islamic Republic manipulate indices or shift temporal bases, effectively engaging in statistical fabrication for 'achievement creation.'