America: A Great Power on the Brink of a Key Competition

The election of the President of the United States solely depends on the votes of its citizens, but the consequences of this election extend far beyond the borders of the United States and significantly impact politics and economics in a large part of the world. This is a reality that can be accepted or rejected, but denying it is not easy. It would not be an exaggeration to say that for decades, the fate of the world has been intertwined with the fate of the presidential elections in America. From 'absolute hegemony' to 'relative hegemony', we must not forget that industrial democracies live under the military umbrella of the United States. A large portion of maritime trade is under the security cover of the U.S., including the bulk transportation of goods in the Pacific Ocean, where the U.S. Seventh Fleet plays the role of a gendarme. Europeans are unable to undertake any military or political initiative, even in their own regions, without Washington's green light, as we have seen in Syria. The sanctions against the Islamic Republic have also showcased the fragility of the Iranian economy under the crushing pressure of the U.S. If a different character with completely different policies had resided in the White House instead of Barack Obama, the fate of Iran and its nuclear file would likely have been very different. There is no doubt that America's power on the global stage is no longer what it was during the first two or three decades after World War II. Post-World War II America, especially in the economic sphere, enjoyed 'absolute hegemony'. A significant part of Europe at that time was nothing more than ruins, and England, which advanced alongside America to Berlin, had lost much of its stature and pride. The victorious Soviet Union, militarily strong, was economically collapsing. Finally, Germany and Japan, amidst a sea of ruins left from a terrible defeat, were bewildered. It was only the United States that, with an economy many times stronger than before the war, achieved unrivaled dominance in industrial, commercial, and monetary fields. The dollar, technology, and American multinational companies rose to conquer the world, creating the most powerful economic empire in history. However, today the situation has changed, and America faces many strong competitors in the global economic arena. The European Union has turned the horrific tragedies of the two 20th-century wars into a distant memory and, despite all its difficulties, has gained a prominent role in global economic developments as a composite entity of some of the most advanced and prosperous industrial powers. Japan, although it has lost its past dynamism, still shines in the galaxy of the global economy. More importantly, the emergence of rising powers that have mobilized hundreds of millions of brains and arms for progress and authority, especially the demographic giants of China and India, has completely changed the economic geography of the world. Under the influence of all these transformations, the hierarchy of power in the world is rapidly shifting, presenting significant challenges to America. Moreover, the 'American way of life', which in a way is still a 'dream' for both U.S. citizens and a large part of the world's population, is now facing a more skeptical outlook than ever. Currently, America has one of the most dynamic labor markets in the world, but its wages are not appealing, and the median income of American households, when adjusted for purchasing power (considering inflation), has regressed to two decades ago. The American middle class, which was considered the foundation of this country's democracy, is no longer what it used to be. Overall, the American relationship with social inequalities, the healthcare system, and labor laws faces critical scrutiny from a significant part of Western democracies. Despite all these transformations, the United States still possesses many strong trump cards in the global economic arena, contrary to the sometimes loud predictions of theorists who have deemed the decline of this power inevitable and imminent for decades. America's dynamism and its capabilities in confronting major challenges still captivate a large part of the world. For example, we saw that following the very dangerous economic crisis of 2007 and 2008, the United States overcame its difficulties much sooner than other advanced powers and especially conquered the unemployment crisis sooner than expected. In many key economic areas, America leads. Of course, this country is no longer the world's number one exporter (that title belongs to the Chinese), but by importing over three hundred billion dollars worth of goods and services, it has created the largest market in the world. In fact, tens of thousands of businesses around the world work for and depend on the American market. This dependency is one of the main pillars of America's power. If America can prevent European and even Chinese banks from trading with Iran, or compel German and Japanese companies to refrain from investing in Iran, it is solely because those banks and companies cannot afford to forgo the American market. The greenback, of course, faces competition from the European euro and the Chinese yuan, but it remains a cornerstone of the international monetary system, partly because over sixty percent of the reserves of central banks worldwide are held in dollars, and in some sectors of international trade, including oil, transactions are conducted in dollars. During the economic sanctions and even after the signing of the JCPOA, Iranians were surprised to discover the 'dollar cycle' in international relations and realized that a significant portion of their valuable assets was under the control of American financial institutions. America's role in several international economic institutions, especially the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization, is another manifestation of this country's influence, although emerging powers, especially the Chinese and Indians, are striving to gain new positions in these institutions. Dominance over new communication and information technologies is another pillar of America's power on the international stage. The global influence of companies like Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon is undeniable. Among the fifty most visited websites in the world, seventy-two percent are American and twenty-two percent are Chinese, while Europe's share in this area is very minimal. The increasing volume of vast amounts of information about billions of Earth's inhabitants, stored in approximately half a million computer servers in the United States, is one of the most important sources of this country's authority in economic, cultural, and security fields. Finally, one of America's latest levers of power is its ability to exploit unconventional oil and gas technology or 'shale', which has provided this country with energy independence. The recent drop in oil prices caused a significant number of companies in this sector to shut down, but it would be simplistic to think that this is the end of the story. The process of exploiting unconventional oil and gas is still in its infancy, and technology has much to say in this regard. The dimensions of this major transformation, especially in the geopolitical arena, are not yet fully recognized, but there is no doubt that America's independence from imported oil will profoundly affect its relationship with the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia, and conversely, will increase the weight of Asia and Africa in Washington's foreign policy. These economic and technological capabilities serve to fund a military power that, in terms of conducting naval, aerial, and ground operations on a global scale, is incomparable to any other power. About half of the world's total military spending is allocated to the United States. The head of such a power will soon be elected by the American people to the White House. It can already be said that, most likely, in next November, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will face each other. Given the character positions that will be presented by the Republicans in the competition, this election will attract global attention more than ever. For Iranians, due to their country's position, the upcoming electoral battle in Washington holds fundamental importance. It is hoped that as we enter the final stages of the electoral campaign, the positions of the two main rivals will come closer to 'political realism'. It is also possible to hope for the political institutions in America that have proven their resilience in the most sensitive moments of this country's history.