Black Gold in Coma, Yellow Dragon in a Coma

The year 2015 drew its last breaths, hoping to see its economic file closed, both positively and negatively. For analysts, listing the most important economic events of the year may not be particularly difficult, as the trend that began in the global economy in 2014 continued into 2015, although at times the continuation of that trend occurred with an unexpected speed. Among the remarkable economic developments in 2015 was the unprecedented drop in oil prices, which tightened the market for sellers of black gold. In 2015, oil prices broke historical records for decline, reaching their lowest level in over a decade at one point. The slowdown in China's economic growth, which had long been considered the engine of the global economy, is another event in the calendar of 2015 that Kamran Dadkhah, an economist and professor at Northeastern University in Boston, analyzes as the most significant economic events of the year: "I believe two very important events occurred in 2015, primarily the slowdown in China's economic growth because the Chinese could not increase their exports as much as they had hoped. The second issue is the massive transformation that occurred in the global oil market. The fall in oil prices, which began in 2014, continued into 2015." The return of Iran to the global economy could have a positive effect on the economies of West Asia and Southern Europe, according to Mehrdad Emadi, an economist residing in Britain. Emadi shares similar views with Dadkhah regarding the significant economic events of the world: "At the top of these events was a significant decrease in economic growth in China, which, as the second-largest economy in the world, the second-largest energy consumer, and the largest consumer of oil from Iran and non-Arab OPEC and non-OPEC countries, had a considerable impact, and the oil markets reacted to this alongside increased production from Saudi Arabia, leading to the unprecedented and historic drop in crude oil prices, with oil losing 73% of its value that year." While both economists agree on listing the most important economic events of 2015, they offer differing assessments regarding the impact and significance of developments surrounding Iran's nuclear file and negotiations related to it. Kamran Dadkhah believes that the approval of the JCPOA and the conclusion of Iran's nuclear negotiations with global powers, while significant for Iran's economy, will not have much impact on the global stage. "The Iranian economy is not at a level to significantly affect the global economy," he states. In contrast, Mehrdad Emadi believes in the regional and even global effects of resolving the Iranian nuclear crisis. However, he asserts: "The reality is that the Iranian economy is not at a level to significantly affect the global economy or that Iran's oil production can create a major change in the global oil market, as Iran is no longer a key player in the oil world." Emadi even considers the lifting of restrictions related to the P5+1 countries on the Iranian economy as the third significant economic event of 2015, which he evaluates as "the largest economy in the world after China outside the global trade economic system." Emadi continues: "Iran's unhindered return to the global economy could have a positive effect, especially on the economies of West Asia and Southern Europe." A different tone across the oceans can also be noted in the economic developments of 2015, particularly regarding the United States. The trend of strengthening the dollar, meaningful economic growth, and a decrease in unemployment in the U.S. economy, contrasted with the ongoing issues and troubles in the Eurozone and the slow, uncertain growth in the European Union, widened the gap between the two sides of the ocean. Some experts believe that the crisis and recession imposed on the global economy from Washington and New York in 2008 and 2009 has now completed a full circle around the globe, and the end of the economic crisis and the recovery of the global economy will once again be determined by the United States. However, Mehrdad Emadi is not entirely convinced that growth in the U.S. economy can carry the burden of the global economy, providing reasons for his viewpoint. He states: "In the U.S. economy, compared to economies like Europe, China, South Korea, Turkey, and Brazil, the tendency for consumption or the share of consumer goods in the total economy is lower." This economic consultant describes the U.S. economy as "almost semi-closed" compared to other countries and notes that growth in the U.S. will have an impact in countries like Mexico, Argentina, and to some extent Brazil, but outside of that range, it will not be very effective. According to Emadi, a significant portion of the positive effect will also be offset by the recession or slowdown in economic growth in China. However, the limited positive effect of U.S. economic growth on the global economy, in Emadi's view, has another aspect; he believes that "while U.S. economic growth is quite good and is expected to average over 2.1% in the next three months, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and new conflicts in the region due to Syria will force the federal government into more debt." Emadi continues: "These additional debts will cause a large portion of the money that consumers and companies previously invested in consumer goods to shift towards military projects, which have never created economic growth anywhere in the world, especially outside of the economy." Kamran Dadkhah, a professor of economics at Northeastern University in Boston, also shares a different perspective but agrees with Emadi. He states: "It is certain that the U.S. economy showed growth in 2015 and emerged from the recession that had been created years ago. This was acknowledged by the Federal Reserve, which slightly raised interest rates, and undoubtedly this economic growth will affect all economies worldwide and may neutralize many shortages on both sides of the globe. However, the truth is that when we look closely and fundamentally at U.S. statistics, it becomes clear that the increase in U.S. growth and improvement in the economy is somewhat anemic and not very strong." Dadkhah believes that "if different policies had been pursued in the U.S. economy, this growth rate and its effects would undoubtedly have been much greater." According to the U.S. Department of Labor, the unemployment rate in the country has reached its lowest level in over 40 years. The Federal Reserve ended its interest rate stabilization policy in the last weeks of 2015 after nearly a decade and is expected to continue raising interest rates in 2016, a policy that will be accompanied by an increase in the value of the dollar and a decrease in the prices of gold and oil. Faint hopes, invisible horizons now raise the question of what transformations these developments and events will bring in 2016. Kamran Dadkhah states: "In 2016, the U.S. economy and the global economy will grow, and the outlook for these economies is positive. However, this growth will not be very strong. Of course, there are those who view 2016 very pessimistically and believe that this year will see a significant decrease in economic growth." Mehrdad Emadi, an economist residing in Britain, also emphasizes that the drop in oil prices and the decline of the Chinese economy will have lasting effects on the global economy while providing a forecast for the global economy in 2016: "As long as at least three major economies in the world, namely China, Germany, and subsequently the U.S., are not aligned in recession and economic prosperity, we cannot be sure that a new wave will emerge, either as a locomotive and greater prosperity for the entire world or as a brake on the global economy." According to Emadi, "Countries that are closely related to the two events of declining economic growth in China and falling oil prices, whether they are oil-importing sellers or sellers of goods to oil-exporting countries or countries that had close relations with China, will naturally experience aftershocks from this small economic earthquake, leaving negative effects on them." This economist believes that in 2016, apart from a few countries like Canada, Germany, and South Korea, a positive outlook for the global economy should not be expected. The economic crisis in Russia, which has been imposed on the country due to falling oil revenues and economic sanctions against Russia, has plunged it into a full-blown recession, which was previously introduced as one of the emerging economies in recent years. Another major emerging economy in Latin America, Brazil, is also caught in a series of political and economic inefficiencies, leaving little hope for Rio to contribute positively to the global economy. The Canadian economy is also unlikely to quickly recover from the problems and hardships of the previous government's policies. Japan, the third-largest economy in the world, managed in 2015 to prevent itself from slipping into another recession, which is not insignificant and could mean a continuation of Japan's economic improvement in 2016, although the pace and speed of this improvement will be slow. Overall, international economic institutions and organizations, from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the U.S. Intelligence Agency, predict weak growth for the global economy in 2016, with growth expected to be around three percent, which may only be altered by an economic miracle.