Central Bank Reports Halving of Iran's Economic Growth

New statistics from the Central Bank regarding the state of Iran's economy indicate that the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first half of this year has halved compared to the same period last year. According to the Central Bank's statistics, the country's economic growth was 5.3 percent in the first half of last year, but it has decreased to 2.9 percent in the first six months of this year. Details of these statistics show that economic growth this summer has been lower than in spring; with oil included, it was about 2.7 percent, and without oil, it was only 2.3 percent. A significant point in the Central Bank's statistics is that the country's economic growth over the past two years has mainly been due to the growth of oil exports, not the services, industry, agriculture, and other sectors directly related to people's livelihoods. According to estimates from this governmental body, Iran had a total economic growth of 5 percent last year, driven by an 18.8 percent growth in the added value of the oil sector. In the first half of this year, the oil sector's growth was 9.3 percent, contributing to the overall growth of the country's economy. The surge in Iranian oil exports comes as Trump is poised to return to the White House. Statistics from commodity information company, Kpler, along with tanker tracking companies like Vortexa, show that Iran's oil exports this year have increased by 34 percent compared to last year and by about 100 percent compared to the year before. Iran exports 40 percent of its produced oil and gas condensates and 7 percent of its produced gas. The halving of the country's economic growth rate in spring and summer this year occurs while Kpler and Vortexa's statistics indicate that Iran's oil exports in this fall have decreased by 500,000 barrels (almost one-third) compared to summer; a situation that strengthens the likelihood of further declines in the country's economic growth in the fall. However, the Central Bank's estimates of growth in some sectors are also met with serious doubts; for example, while reports from the Statistics Center indicate a shrinking share of industry and agriculture from the total economy due to summer power outages, the Central Bank claims a growth of 1.7 percent and 2.8 percent in the industrial and agricultural sectors in the summer season. The slowdown in the country's economic growth occurs while the government has targeted an 'annual economic growth of 8 percent' in the seventh development plan, which is set to be implemented for five years starting this year. Meanwhile, according to the International Monetary Fund's estimates, Iran's economic growth rate will experience consecutive declines from this year to the next five years, falling to 2 percent.