Direct Warning from the U.S. to Iran: We Cannot Contain Israel in Case of a New Attack

The Axios news website reported, citing an American official, that the White House has warned the Islamic Republic of Iran in recent days not to carry out a new attack against Israel, as the U.S. will no longer be able to contain Israel's response to Iran. An American official stated on Saturday, following a threat from Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, to deliver a 'crushing response' to Israel and the U.S., that they have informed the Iranians that if there is another attack on Israel, they will not be able to prevent Israel from retaliating, and they will not be sure that Israel's retaliatory attack will remain within the limits of previous attacks on Iran. On Saturday morning, Khamenei promised a 'crushing response' against Israel and the U.S. Iran targeted Israel with hundreds of missiles and drones in Farvardin and Mehr of this year, and Israel retaliated against limited military targets in Iran without causing any casualties among Israelis. The Pentagon is sending more B-52 bombers and destroyers to the Middle East. Following Iran's second attack on Israel on October 2, there has been much speculation about the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran's oil and nuclear facilities, and reports of a limited Israeli attack on military targets in Iran due to U.S. pressure have emerged. President Joe Biden has explicitly stated that he does not support an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and subsequently participated in a phone call with the Israeli Prime Minister. Israeli and American officials told Axios that the Israeli attack on Iran on October 27 occurred after several weeks of coordination and consultation with the United States, during which both sides reached an understanding regarding the type of targets to be attacked, agreeing that oil and nuclear facilities would not be included in the Israeli attack. The unnamed American official further clarified that the U.S. message was sent 'directly' to Iran, a point that Axios also emphasized, noting that such direct communications are rarely disclosed. The American message was conveyed to Iranian officials through Switzerland, which represents U.S. interests in Iran. Ismail Kothari, a member of the National Security and Foreign Relations Committee of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, also stated yesterday that the Supreme National Security Council of Iran has agreed to attack Israel, but the exact date and scope of this attack have not yet been determined. He mentioned that this attack would be in cooperation with resistance groups in the region and would be larger in scale than the October 2 attack on Israel. Iran used 180 ballistic missiles in the October 2 attack. Karine Jean-Pierre, White House spokesperson, told reporters yesterday that the White House has clearly stated that Iran should not respond to Israel's retaliatory attack, and the United States will continue its support for Israel. Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder also announced simultaneously that the United States is transferring additional destroyers equipped with ballistic missile defense systems, fighter jets, refueling aircraft, and several long-range B-52 bombers to the Middle East. He further stated that, as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has clearly indicated, if Iran or its proxy forces target U.S. personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take all necessary actions for defense. Axios reports that Israeli intelligence estimates that an Iranian attack is likely to occur before the U.S. presidential elections on November 6. The website previously reported, citing two informed sources, that Israeli intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is preparing to attack from 'Iraqi territory in the coming days.' The New York Times also reported on Thursday, citing 'three Iranian officials,' that Ali Khamenei has instructed the Supreme National Security Council of Iran to prepare for an attack on Israel. On the other hand, the Intel Sky account on X (formerly Twitter) published an image of Iranian airspace, stating that the air restrictions in Iran indicate the country's potential military readiness. This media outlet, which analyzes international risks and crises, reported on Saturday, November 12, that notices issued by Iranian officials for the aviation warning system, NOTAM, refer to airspace restrictions in northwestern and central Iran, even around Tehran, which could indicate increased military activity in these areas. Intel Sky further noted that such restrictions could potentially indicate part of a broader strategic response to the escalating tensions between Iran and Israel. According to Intel Sky, although airspace closures are often for military exercises and routine training, the scope, location, and timing of these restrictions coincide with a period of heightened geopolitical friction in the region, a trend that analysts believe is part of Iran's strategic preparations in light of escalating conflicts with Israel.