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🔴 Breaking ❓ Unknown

Doubts about the U.S.-Iran ceasefire push oil prices toward $100 and slow stocks

May 15, 2026 May 15, 2026 3 min read 📰 PBS
📋 Key Takeaway

Oil prices rose and Wall Street stocks experienced modest losses due to skepticism surrounding the fragile US-Iran ceasefire deal. Doubts intensified after intense Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Iran's subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, despite US demands for its reopening. These developments kept global energy supply uncertainties firmly in focus.

🔍 Quick Context Guide
💡 Bottom Line: The U.S.-Iran ceasefire's uncertainty is driving oil prices up and stock markets down.

👥 Key Players

Donald Trump ACTOR
President of the United States
"Trump posted on his Truth Social media platform that U.S. military will remain in the region."
Ewa Manthey QUOTED
Analyst at ING Bank
"keeping uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz firmly in focus."
Warren Patterson QUOTED
Analyst at ING Bank
"keeping uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz firmly in focus."
JD Vance ACTOR
Vice President of the United States
"Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the U.S. delegation."

⚡ Actions

Donald Trump ANNOUNCE Iran
"Trump posted on his Truth Social media platform that U.S. military will remain in the region."
Confidence: 90%
Israeli military ATTACK Lebanon
"a round of intense Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed and injured hundreds."
Confidence: 90%
U.S. delegation NEGOTIATE Iran
"Talks to pursue a permanent end to the war could start in Pakistan on Saturday."
Confidence: 80%

📰 What Happened

Doubts over U.S.-Iran ceasefire lead to rising oil prices and stock market declines.

  • Donald Trump announce Iran
  • Israeli military attack Lebanon
  • U.S. delegation negotiate Iran

💡 Why It Matters

🇮🇷 For Iran: Because the ceasefire's fragility affects Iran's military and economic strategies.
🌍 Regional: Because ongoing conflicts and ceasefire negotiations impact regional stability.
🌐 International: Because oil price fluctuations affect global markets and relations.

📚 Background

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire's uncertainty is driving oil prices up and stock markets down.

📝 Key Evidence

"Doubts about the durability of the ceasefire arose just hours after the announcement."
→ Indicates instability in the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement.
📡 Source: INTERNATIONAL
📊 Confidence: 90%
PBS is generally considered a reliable news source.

By —

Stan Choe, Associated Press Stan Choe, Associated Press

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Doubts about the U.S.-Iran ceasefire push oil prices toward $100 and slow stocks Economy Apr 9, 2026 10:48 AM EDT Oil prices skipped higher early Thursday and Wall Street veered toward modest losses on skepticism over a fragile and muddled ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each slid 0.4% before the opening bell, while futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.5%.

READ MORE: Iran war ceasefire teeters over disagreements on Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz

The declines came one day after all three indices gained between 2.5% and 3% following President Donald Trump's announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran late Tuesday.

Doubts about the durability of the ceasefire arose just hours after the announcement as a round of intense Israeli strikes on Lebanon killed and injured hundreds. Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to the attacks in Lebanon.

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That sent oil prices climbing back toward $100 a barrel Thursday, reversing an earlier plunge on optimism over the temporary ceasefire agreement. Benchmark U.S. crude was 5.4% higher on Thursday at $99.44 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 4.1% to $98.70 per barrel.

Uncertainties over global energy supply remained. The Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for energy transport where a fifth of the world's oil typically passes, was largely closed even though the U.S. repeatedly demanded that it must be reopened.

"(Oil) prices rebounded as fighting in the Middle East continued, and the ceasefire outlook deteriorated, keeping uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz firmly in focus," ING Bank analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson wrote in a note Thursday.

Talks to pursue a permanent end to the war could start in Pakistan on Saturday, and Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the U.S. delegation. Trump posted on his Truth Social media platform that U.S. military will remain in the region "until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with."

Elsewhere, at midday in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.3%, France's CAC 40 dropped 0.9% and Germany's DAX lost 1.3%.

Asian shares closed mostly lower. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 dropped 0.7% to 55,895.32, while South Korea's Kospi lost 1.6% to 5,778.01. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.5% to 25,752.40. The Shanghai Composite index was down 0.7% to 3,966.17. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.2% to 8,973.20. Taiwan's Taiex was 0.3% higher, while India's Sensex dropped 1.6%.

The U.S. dollar rose to 158.98 Japanese yen from 158.57 yen. The euro was trading at $1.1681, up from $1.1663.

Associated Press writer Aniruddha Ghosal contributed to this report.

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Translated from the original and edited for English readers. View original source →

Translation confidence: 100%

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