Forecast of the Budget and Planning Organization for Next Year: Increase in Economic Growth and Decrease in Unemployment

The Development and Foresight Research Center of the Budget and Planning Organization reported on the dimensions of Iran's budget for the next solar year, stating that it is expected that in 1397 (the Iranian calendar year), the rate of economic growth and inflation will slightly increase, while the unemployment rate will decrease. According to this 43-page report published on Tuesday, January 22, on the official website of the Budget and Planning Organization, two scenarios have been considered for predicting economic components: one based on $55 oil and the other on $60 oil. The oil price in the current budget is set at $55. The price of Iran's heavy oil is somewhat lower than the Brent benchmark oil price. According to international assessments from organizations such as the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and OPEC, the price of Brent crude oil is expected to be around $60 this year. However, the current oil price is about $70, and it is expected to decline in the coming months and then increase slightly again, but ultimately, estimates indicate that the average price of Brent oil this year will be around $60, an increase of $8 compared to last year. Iran plans to have $51 billion in oil revenue for the next solar year. The Research Center of the Parliament states that based on the assumptions of next year's budget, Iran's economic growth, including oil revenue, is expected to be about 5.8%. According to this report, the inflation rate is expected to increase slightly next year, but the unemployment rate will significantly decrease. Based on the estimates of the Budget and Planning Organization, the inflation rate next year will reach 9.1%, while the unemployment rate will drop from 12.1% to 11.3%. Regarding inflation, the Statistical Center of Iran also reported on Tuesday that the inflation rate for the month of Dey has reached 8.2%. The estimates from these two Iranian institutions differ significantly from the forecasts of international organizations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. For example, the IMF recently published a report stating that Iran's economic growth (including oil) for next year will be 4.2%. The inflation rate is also predicted to be 9.9%, which is higher than Iran's own forecast.