How Iran and Russia View Chaos in Africa as an Opportunity

Both the Russian government and the Islamic Republic have witnessed a decline in their international standing in recent years, and as each seeks a way to strengthen their military and diplomatic influence, they look to Africa as a land of opportunities, particularly capitalizing on the chaos in African countries. There is no indication that Moscow and Tehran are closely cooperating in Africa, but their goals on the continent are often aligned, and experts say that each is trying to exploit similar situations, including political instability, war, and the diminishing influence of Western powers. Cameron Hudson, a member of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told Radio Free Europe that 'both Iran and Russia see what is happening in Africa as an opportunity to break their diplomatic isolation.' Hudson added, 'They have been isolated financially and politically by the West and are essentially regarded as pariah states. Therefore, they see the 54 African countries as an opportunity to break this situation.' As some African countries have become wary of the West and are ready to seek alternative trade and investment partners, Russia and Iran have increased their engagement with African nations. Tehran and Moscow are specifically active in conflict countries and regions such as West Africa and the Sahel. In these areas, military governments have openly stated that they do not welcome the presence of Western forces. Hudson noted that Moscow and Tehran's intervention in Africa is also aimed at striking back at Western countries that have imposed crippling international sanctions on Russia and the Islamic Republic. The sanctions against Russia, imposed due to its invasion of Ukraine, and sanctions against the Islamic Republic, particularly due to Tehran's controversial missile, drone, and nuclear programs, have effectively severed Moscow and Tehran's ties with the global financial system and harmed their lucrative arms and oil trade. Hudson stated that by opening new avenues for trade and influence in Africa, Moscow and Tehran can demonstrate that efforts to isolate and punish them 'are only partially successful and that they can build coalitions of countries that support their interests.' Liam Carr, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project, told Radio Free Europe that both Iran and Russia view Africa as 'a battleground where they can replace the West and gain a better economic, political, and even military position for prolonged tensions with the West.' Carr pointed to three countries—Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, former French colonies in the Sahel region—where anti-Western military governments have taken power and increased cooperation with Iran and Russia to distance themselves from France. This situation has already led to the expulsion of French forces from Niger and Mali. American forces, which have been fighting Islamist insurgents in the region, have also retreated from Niamey, the capital of Niger, and will completely leave the country by September. The rapid policy changes in some African countries have created uncomfortable situations for the West; for instance, Russian forces supporting the military government in Niger were stationed at an airbase in the country that previously hosted American soldiers. Carr explained that both Iran and Russia are using military engagement with unstable or isolated African countries to foster further economic and political cooperation with them. He added that such military involvement also allows them to threaten vital waterways like the Mediterranean and the Red Sea with limited resources. In recent months, multiple reports have emerged about the Islamic Republic's increased efforts to access uranium and gold resources in coup-affected African countries such as Niger. In April, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing officials from Niger and the U.S., that Niger decided to end its counter-terrorism alliance with Washington. In addition to concerns about terrorism, the current situation in Niger and other recently coup-affected African countries has heightened worries regarding Iran's nuclear program. The Wall Street Journal reported that senior officials from the U.S. and other Western countries have obtained information indicating that Niger's military government is secretly considering an agreement with Iran that would allow the Islamic Republic access to some of Niger's vast uranium reserves. According to the report, negotiations regarding such an agreement continued during a meeting between Niger's Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine and Ibrahim Raisi in Tehran on January 25, 2023. Shortly after this meeting, Western officials announced that negotiations between Niger and Iran had reached a very advanced stage. However, Moscow's influence in Africa is characterized by high-level political interactions, business deals including arms sales, and the comprehensive presence of its mercenaries in conflict areas. Hudson stated, 'Russia finds opportunities in chaos. Therefore, when there is political instability in a country, when there is a kind of organic rejection of the West, which we have seen in many African countries that view the West as a neo-colonial actor, it creates openings and opportunities for Russia to enter with its narrative.' Russia's military presence in Africa has cost Moscow more than Iran, as many Wagner Group mercenaries were killed last month fighting against Tuareg separatists linked to the al-Qaeda terrorist network in Mali. Two years ago, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the commander of Wagner, who was killed in a plane crash in Russia after a failed rebellion against Putin, stated that the group would focus on 'activities in Africa and Belarus' in its new phase. Following his remarks, reports from Africa indicated the return of mercenaries from this group to the continent. Among them, Tuareg separatists in northern Mali stated that Wagner forces were present alongside the Malian army in attacks against their positions in the north of the country. Iran has since joined its ally, Russia, in Africa and is now striving to expand its influence on the continent through trade relations, arms sales, and the use of proxy groups and militant groups as part of its 'resistance axis' against Israel and the West in general. In West Africa, Iran has turned to three military governments in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. In Nigeria, Tehran has established a proxy group called the Islamic Movement of Nigeria, which operates like its other proxy groups in other countries. Tehran has also utilized proxy forces to extend its presence across the Sahel to the Horn of Africa and exert more pressure on regional countries, primarily Israel. However, Iran and Russia's interests sometimes overlap in certain African countries like Niger and Sudan. Both Iran and Russia have played roles in the year-long civil war between the Sudanese army and the country's rebel forces. Liam Carr, an analyst at the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project, believes that Sudan is a country where both Russia and Iran have military interests, and based on these interests, both have supported the Sudanese armed forces and hope to establish a military base on the Red Sea coast in Sudan. The Critical Threats Project analyst added that such a base would enable them to enhance their military position in the region. In recent months, reports have emerged about the transfer of Iranian drones to Sudan. In April, a senior Sudanese army official told Reuters that after about a year of civil war in the country, Iranian combat drones had played a significant role in shifting the balance of power in favor of the Sudanese army, halting the advance of rival forces and helping the army regain parts of the areas surrounding the capital. Six sources from Iranian and regional officials and diplomats, who wished to remain anonymous, also told the news agency that the Sudanese army had received Iranian combat drones in recent months. Russia has also provided 'unlimited qualitative military assistance.' The military leaders who have taken power in Mali and Niger are seeking support from Moscow and Tehran to strengthen their positions in their countries. Hudson stated, 'They are certainly lacking legitimacy in the West and among international institutions, and therefore establishing relations with Iran or Russia helps them build legitimacy, as such relations make them appear like state actors.' He added that they seem to engage in trade and diplomatic activities like a legitimate government. Both Carr and Hudson say there is no clear indication of coordination between Russia and Iran regarding their strategies in Africa. Carr stated, 'Similar goals and methods mean that their efforts largely reinforce each other.' Meanwhile, Hudson referred to 'a set of aligned interests,' 'not interests that are clearly being coordinated.'