IMF Assessment from 2019; Iran's Economic Growth at Negative 6 Percent

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released its latest report on the global economy, including statistics related to Iran, predicting that this year the inflation and unemployment rates in Iran will rise and the country's economy will shrink significantly. This report comes a day after the World Bank's report, which predicted Iran's economic growth to be negative 3.8 percent this year. However, the IMF's assessment is much more pessimistic than that of the World Bank, forecasting Iran's economic growth (GDP growth) to be negative 6 percent in 2019. According to this report, Iran's economic growth last year was also negative 3.9 percent, while the World Bank assessed this figure at negative 1.6 percent. Both reports state that Iran's economic situation has been more severely affected by U.S. sanctions than previously thought. The IMF states that inflation in Iran reached 31.2 percent last year and will peak at 37.2 percent this year. This assessment is significantly higher than Iran's own assessment, which reported the inflation rate at the end of last fall (approximately equal to the end of last year) as 20.6 percent. The latest report from Iran's Statistical Center, published on Tuesday, April 20, simultaneously with the IMF's report, predicted the annual inflation rate ending in Esfand 97 to be only 26.9 percent, which is much lower than the IMF's assessment. Official reports from Iran regarding economic indicators are often met with serious skepticism from experts and international organizations. The IMF states that the unemployment rate in Iran reached 15.4 percent at the end of last year, while this figure was about 13.9 percent in 2017. This statistic is also higher than Iran's own official figures. The latest report from Iran's Statistical Center, which includes the unemployment rate at the end of last fall, which is almost simultaneous with the end of 2018, claims that the unemployment rate was only 11.7 percent. Iran also includes those who work only one hour a week in its list of employed individuals. The IMF states that the unemployment rate in Iran will peak at 16.1 percent next year. The World Bank has predicted that among the countries in the Middle East and North Africa, Iran will be the only country to experience negative economic growth this year, while even Yemen, which is facing civil war, will have positive economic growth. The IMF also states that only Sudan and Iran will have negative growth in 2019.