Impact of Nuclear Negotiations on Iran's Market; Interview with Fereydoun Khavand

The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 group in Vienna ended on Monday night without reaching a comprehensive and final agreement. Mehrdad Qasempour asked Fereydoun Khavand, an economics professor in Paris, about the impact of this outcome on Iran's economic atmosphere. Fereydoun Khavand stated that various markets in Tehran were closely monitoring the Vienna negotiations until the last moment, and one could say their hearts were beating in the Austrian capital. The most sensitive news center in this regard was Istanbul Square, where traders held the pulse of the currency. After the announcement of the reports regarding the end of the negotiations, the dollar increased by about five to seven tomans, but it was late, and it remains to be seen how currency traders will react today. In the stock market, the prices of shares of companies that could benefit from a final agreement in Vienna rose during the day, but in the last hours of trading, the news from Austria turned the tide. It is clear that importers, producers, and exporters were all focused on Vienna. Naturally, what happened in Vienna has discouraged Tehran's economic circles, unless they want to see the glass half full and at least be happy that the influx of currency into Iran is slightly increasing, sanctions have not intensified, and negotiations will continue. What will be the impact of the outcome of the Vienna negotiations on the economic policy of Hassan Rouhani's government? What happened in Vienna was not good news for Hassan Rouhani, who had high hopes for a final agreement on the nuclear issue, the relatively quick lifting of sanctions, and the dynamism that this event could create for Iran's economy, including increasing Iran's oil exports, attracting foreign investors, freeing up banking transfers, and the return of a significant portion of Iran's frozen assets abroad, along with dozens of other driving factors to end the recession. Currently, it can be said that Rouhani's government faces at least a few tough months ahead, as it has not only failed to achieve its goal in the nuclear arena so far, but the oil market is also not in good shape, and the package prepared by his economic team to end the inflationary recession has been effectively neutralized due to opposition from the parliament and has lost its dynamism. However, Rouhani's government is likely hopeful that this difficult period will be temporary and that the negotiation process will soon resume with renewed dynamism. Who is happy with the situation created in Vienna? Groups within Iran that have thrived under sanctions and do not want to lose this advantage. Externally, oil-exporting countries, especially Russia and Saudi Arabia, are pleased that Iran cannot increase its oil exports anytime soon, as the continued low level of Iranian oil exports slows the rate of falling oil prices.