International Monetary Fund Reports Iran's Economic Growth at 12.5% for 2016

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest report on the economic situation in the Middle East, Caucasus, and Central Asia has revised Iran's economic growth for 2016, estimating it to be double the previous figure. The report, published on the official website of this international organization, states that the IMF's previous assessment of Iran's economic growth last year was 6.6%, but the new assessment shows that this figure was 12.5%. Iranian officials have also mentioned the country's high economic growth during the past months. In this context, the Central Bank of Iran reported in June this year that based on preliminary calculations, the country's GDP in the year 1395 (2016) increased by 12.5% compared to the previous year. However, this figure in both reports refers to Iran's GDP including oil; otherwise, Iran's non-oil economic growth last year was 3.3%. International sanctions against Iran were lifted at the beginning of 2016, and its oil production, considering the removal of export barriers, increased from 2.92 million barrels per day in 2015 to 3.69 million barrels last year, and this figure is expected to increase by another 100,000 barrels this year. In other words, Iran's significant economic growth last year was mainly due to the increase in oil production and exports. The IMF report also specifies that Iran's 'economic growth rate' will decline this year and next, as Iran will not have a significant increase in oil production. The growth of Iran's oil sector added value last year compared to the previous year was over 61%, partly due to a $14 increase in the price of Iranian oil and partly due to an increase in production volume, but for this year and next, the growth rate is expected to be between 2.5% and 3.9%. The IMF report adds that Iran's economic growth (including oil) for this year and next will be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively. This index, excluding oil, will be 3.1% for this year and 2.1% for next year. Regarding the size of Iran's economy, this international organization estimated Iran's GDP last year at $404.4 billion, which is expected to reach about $428 billion this year. Concerning inflation, the report states that this index, which became single-digit last year and reached 9%, is expected to be 10.5% this year and 10.1% next year. Iran's total exports this year are expected to exceed $107 billion, reflecting a 13.5% growth compared to last year. This figure was below $75 billion in 1394 (2015). The country's imports are also expected to grow by 8% to $86 billion, which was just over $67 billion in 1394.