Internet Taxi Fuel Rationing Cut; New Fuel Supply Restrictions Begin

Iranian news agencies reported that the National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company announced that internet taxis will not have fuel rations in the year 1403 (2024). Ali Akbar Arab-Amiri stated in a radio interview that according to new regulations, 'this quota will not be allocated this year, and the National Oil Products Distribution Company is the executor, not the decision-maker.' He also mentioned new restrictions for truck fuel quotas, which will be allocated based on mileage, number of waybills, and vehicle specifications, with quotas charged both offline and online. Recently, to ensure fair distribution, instead of a monthly quota, a fifteen-day quota will be calculated and allocated. Analysts view these changes as a pathway to increasing gasoline prices, believing that the government is looking to eliminate and reduce quotas and subsequently raise fuel prices. In this context, Javad Owji, the Minister of Oil, announced on Wednesday, April 15, that within ten days, refueling will only be possible through personal fuel cards, indicating the removal of station fuel cards and restrictions on fuel supply. Mustafa Nakhai, a member of the Energy Commission of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, told the 'Khabar Online' website that the government wants to manage fuel consumption by eliminating station cards. This parliament member stated that the government fuel quota is 60 liters at 1500 tomans and 100 liters at 3000 tomans, questioning what individuals needing more fuel should do, as the station card was meant to address this need. The government's actions have fueled rumors about a three-tiered gasoline pricing system, with many experts believing the government aims to create supply restrictions and subsequently unveil a third gasoline price. Morteza Afagh, an economic expert, stated that the government lacks funds and that raising gasoline prices is the best way to generate revenue. According to this economic expert, the government must reduce its expenses to compensate for its budget deficit. Ahmad Alireza Beigi, a current parliament representative, also stated in an interview with the 'Jahan San'at' newspaper that the government has no choice but to raise gasoline prices, and this trend cannot continue. The 'Javan' newspaper, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards, reported in December 2023 that over $2.6 billion worth of gasoline imports in 1403 (2024) are included in the subsidy targeting clause, indicating a high volume of imbalance that cannot continue. Voice of America has reported several times over the past year, citing statements from Islamic Republic officials and emphasizing the need for consumption management, comparing consumption in Iran with other countries, indicating fundamental changes in the gasoline sector. Ahmad Vahidi, the Minister of Interior, said on December 15, 2023, 'One liter of gasoline is cheaper than one liter of water.' He emphasized that 'the low price of gasoline naturally increases gasoline consumption.' Voice of America also reported that legal requirements and approvals in the 'Seventh Development Plan' and the 1403 (2024) budget, alongside officials' statements, indicate a 'major event' in the gasoline sector. Regarding officials' and some parliament members' references to the necessity of economic surgery, several experts have stated that any manipulation of gasoline prices will lead to increased economic pressures and disrupt political and social relations in Iran. The increase in gasoline prices during Hassan Rouhani's presidency in November 2019 led to widespread protests in Iran. In response to these widespread protests, the Islamic Republic suppressed demonstrators. In this context, Reuters reported on December 23, 2019, that about 1500 people were killed during the protests and cited three sources close to the Supreme Leader stating that Khamenei had instructed government and security officials to 'do whatever is necessary' to stop the protests. The average gasoline consumption reached 120 million liters per day. The Minister of Oil announced the removal of station fuel cards; new gasoline restrictions will be implemented within ten days. With an 18% increase, the daily gasoline consumption during Nowruz reached 130 million liters. The gasoline imbalance in Iran intensified, recording a consumption of 152 million liters per day. The car rental market heated up ahead of Nowruz; car prices continue to rise.