Nobakht: This Year's Budget is Unachievable

The head of Iran's Management and Planning Organization forecasted that only 53% of the national budget would be "achieved" in the first half of 1394 (2015), stating that the government will have to manage the country with half of the projected budget. According to ISNA news agency, Mohammad Baqer Nobakht emphasized on Sunday, August 1, that due to the drop in oil prices, the parliament mandated the government to set the budget for the first half of the year based on 220 trillion tomans. He also noted that not only is the government's budget of 236 trillion tomans for 1394 unachievable, but even the 220 trillion tomans projected by the parliament is also "not feasible." According to Nobakht, "in one scenario," only 184 trillion tomans of this budget will be realized. He reported that in 1393 (2014), out of 211 trillion tomans of public budget resources, only 174 trillion tomans were allocated in cash. Previously, Iranian government officials had warned of a budget deficit for 1394 due to falling oil prices, reduced sales, and uncollected oil revenue. Meanwhile, Ahmad Tavakoli, a representative from Tehran in parliament, predicted that the Iranian government's budget for 1394 would have a deficit of 89 trillion tomans, which is 41% of the "public resources of the government." Statistics from the Central Bank of Iran show that Iran's oil revenues in 1390 (2011) were over 118 billion dollars, which fell to 68 billion dollars the following year and to 65 billion dollars in 1392 (2013). Additionally, Ali Tayebnia, Iran's Minister of Economy, reported a decrease of about 20 trillion tomans in the government's oil revenue in 1393. Nobakht further stated that due to sanctions, the collection of "6 to 7 billion dollars" from Iran's oil revenues is currently impossible. He had also reported on Thursday, March 12, 1394, that 22 trillion tomans of revenue from oil sales had not been collected in the "months" prior to that date. Iranian government officials had previously indicated that the budget for 1394 was prepared with various scenarios regarding the success or failure of nuclear negotiations. However, some economic experts and parliament members have emphasized that lifting sanctions will not have a short-term impact on Iran's economy. Mohammad Reza Bahonar, the deputy speaker of the Iranian parliament, stated on Sunday, July 26, that the release of Iran's frozen assets will not have a "decisive" effect on the country's economy. Meanwhile, according to ISNA, economist Saeed Leilaz stated that even if Iran's oil exports increased to two million barrels per day, oil sales revenue would not reach the levels of 1390, and next year's economic situation would be "even harder than the worst year of sanctions." In this context, the Court of Audit has been "mandated" to determine the exact amount of Iran's frozen assets, the "1.5 million tomans deficit in household income and expenses," the "85% optimism of Tehran residents" about Iran's future after the Vienna agreement, and the Central Bank's foreign resources of "90 billion," with usable resources of "29 billion."