Parliament Research Center: Government Will Not Meet Projected Oil Revenues This Year and Next

The Parliament Research Center states that in the first four months of this year, the government's oil budget has faced a deficit, and the amount projected for oil export revenues in the 2025 budget is unattainable. The government has estimated 509 trillion tomans (equivalent to 12.6 billion dollars) in budgetary oil and gas export revenues for the next year. Overall, the government has projected a daily oil export of 1.85 million barrels, of which 1.25 million barrels will be valued at 33.5 billion dollars for the government (37.5 percent), the National Development Fund (16 billion dollars), and the National Oil Company (4.9 billion dollars). Among the remaining amount, 550,000 barrels valued at 12.4 billion dollars will be allocated for the armed forces and special projects, and 50,000 barrels will be for commitments under Article 12. The Parliament Research Center noted that the government's oil budget was only realized by 18 percent in the first four months of this year and has estimated that 18 percent of the government's oil budget will also not be realized next year. According to this research institution, the government has set the price of exported oil at 63 dollars per barrel for the next year, but this figure is likely to be only 60 dollars. The government has considered a daily oil export of 1.25 million barrels (excluding oil for the armed forces and special projects), but the actual realization is likely to be only 1.1 million barrels. The government has also projected gas exports of 16 billion cubic meters, but the actual figure is likely to be 12 billion cubic meters. Last year, Iran's gas exports were also only 12 billion cubic meters, and it is unclear why the government has set a target of 16 billion cubic meters for next year given the increasing gas deficit. The target of 1.85 million barrels of daily oil exports by the government and the armed forces comes while tracking companies report that Iran's oil exports this year have averaged 1.5 million barrels per day. In the 2025 budget bill, the share of the National Development Fund from the country's oil exports is also set at 48 percent, with 20 percent to be delivered to the fund and 28 percent, valued at 541 trillion tomans, to be borrowed by the government. The Parliament Research Center states that instead of 541 trillion tomans, only 440 trillion tomans of the mentioned amount is likely to be realized. Overall, the government aims to generate 1,050 trillion tomans from oil exports and part of the National Development Fund's share for next year, but according to the Parliament Research Center's assessment, only 860 trillion tomans of this amount is likely to be realized, resulting in an 18 percent budget deficit. In addition to oil and gas exports, the government has also considered 911 trillion tomans from domestic and foreign sales of oil products, as well as domestic gas sales, which is 14 percent more than this year.