Playing with Gasoline, to the Government's Advantage on the People's Field; 15-Liter Quota for All with Secondary Market Coming

An Iranian newspaper reported on a new gasoline plan proposed by the Research Center of the Parliament, which suggests that starting from June of next year, a distribution of 15 liters of gasoline to all individuals will be implemented through the establishment of a 'secondary market.' According to the newspaper 'Donya-e-Eqtesad,' the government will provide a monthly quota of 15 liters of gasoline for each person to the heads of households without cars, funded by eliminating the quotas for households with three or more cars. It has been announced that the exchange of gasoline quotas will be facilitated in 'one market.' A key point in this proposal is the emphasis that the government should carry out this measure without 'any increase in gasoline prices.' This proposal comes at a time when Jalal Mahmoudzadeh, a member of Parliament, stated on December 23 that 'the Parliament has given a green light for increasing energy carriers, which poses a risk that the government might suddenly raise gasoline or other energy prices.' Furthermore, the news agency 'Tasnim' reported on December 8 that 'according to the Seventh Development Plan bill, from the second year of this plan, i.e., in 2025, diesel will be distributed based solely on mileage and online waybills, and any excess will be subject to incremental consumption taxes.' Reports indicate that daily consumption has now exceeded 115 million liters, and it is predicted that by the end of the year, the average gasoline deficit in Iran will reach 15 million liters per day. Given the gasoline obligations of the 'Seventh Development Plan' regarding incremental price increases and statements from officials, a 'big event' in the gasoline sector is anticipated. This event seems very close to the statements made by Ahmad Vahidi, the Minister of Interior, who said on December 6, 'One liter of our gasoline is cheaper than one liter of water.' Vahidi emphasized that 'the cheap price of gasoline automatically increases gasoline consumption.' Regarding the officials' and some members of Parliament's references to the need for economic surgery, several experts have stated that any manipulation of gasoline prices will lead to intensified economic pressures and disrupt political and social relations in Iran. The increase in gasoline prices during Hassan Rouhani's presidency in November 2019 led to widespread protests in Iran. In response to these widespread protests, the Islamic Republic suppressed the demonstrators. In this regard, Reuters reported on December 23, 2019, that about 1,500 people were killed in the protests and cited three sources close to the Supreme Leader stating that Khamenei had instructed government and security officials to do 'whatever is necessary' to stop the protests.