Potential Disruption by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz 'Will Cause Tension in Iran-China Relations'

The energy consulting firm Vortexa, noting that one-third of China's imported oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, states that potential disruption by the Islamic Republic in this strait would lead to widespread economic instability and tension in Iran-China relations. This international company, which also tracks oil tankers, reported that in the first nine months of this year, an average of 4.2 million barrels of oil per day headed to China via the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for 43% of China's maritime oil imports. This figure also represents nearly one-third of China's total oil imports from all maritime and land routes. The Iranian government has repeatedly threatened in recent years that it would close the Strait of Hormuz if its interests were threatened; a passage through which 20% of the world's oil consumption passes. In recent days, with the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil facilities being discussed in retaliation for the Islamic Republic's extensive missile attack on this country on October 1, speculation about Iran's potential use of the Strait of Hormuz as leverage to disrupt global oil markets has increased. It is said that one of Israel's potential targets is the Khark oil terminal in the Persian Gulf, from which 90% of Iran's oil is loaded. It has been previously reported that Iran has moved its tankers away from the Khark port after the attack on Israel. Vortexa states that the reduction in Iranian oil loading activity from the Khark port is evident; during the first nine months of this year, more than one large tanker was loaded daily from this oil terminal, but in the first ten days of this month, only two tankers received oil from the Khark terminal. In this regard, Arman Aziziann, a senior analyst at Vortexa, also told Radio Farda that Iran's daily oil exports in the first ten days of this month have fallen to 600,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Iran has threatened the Arab countries in the region through secret diplomatic channels that if Israel uses their airspace to attack Iran, these countries will be targeted. Jordan and Saudi Arabia are directly in the path of a potential Israeli attack on the Khark terminal, and both countries, along with Qatar and the UAE, have been threatened by Iran that no potential Israeli or American attack should take place from their airspace. However, Vortexa writes that given that China is a customer for 95% of Iran's oil exports, the likelihood of Iran taking action to close the Strait of Hormuz is low; as this would cause significant economic instability and tension in Iran-China relations. Iran itself has sent 1.35 million barrels of oil daily from this terminal to China in the first nine months of this year, showing a 27% increase compared to the same period last year. This growth is attributed to extensive discounts Iran has offered to Chinese refineries. Statistics from this international energy consulting firm also show that Iran has 40 million barrels of oil reserves outside the Strait of Hormuz, but if the country's exports are disrupted, Russian oil is likely to replace Iranian oil in China's markets. Almost all of Iran's oil exports are secretly sent to China through tankers known as the 'ghost fleet' under the name of oil from other countries. The U.S. Treasury Department, in response to Iran's extensive missile attack on Israel on October 1, sanctioned 16 companies and 17 ships involved in transporting Iranian oil and petrochemical products; a matter that tightens the space for the Islamic Republic of Iran to use the 'ghost fleet' for oil smuggling.