Significant Revival of Iran's Oil Exports in February

Statistics from tanker tracking companies indicate that Iran's oil exports have grown by '50 percent' in February following a severe drop in January. The company 'TankerTrackers' reported on Wednesday, March 6, that Iran's oil exports in the last month saw a 50 percent increase compared to January. This report did not specify the volume of Iran's oil exports, but exclusive statistics from Radio Farda from the commodity information company, Kpler, which also provides tanker tracking services, indicate a daily loading of 1.74 million barrels of Iranian oil to the Chinese markets last month. Reuters also reported that Iran's oil production increased by 80,000 barrels per day last month. While the increase in loading and transporting Iranian oil to China is noteworthy given the revival of the maximum pressure policy of the Trump administration, more important is the volume of oil that is ultimately discharged in China. Concurrently with the energy crisis, Iran has significantly increased gas exports to Turkey. According to Kpler's statistics, the volume of Iranian oil discharged to China in January was 692,000 barrels, which increased to 771,000 barrels last month. Before the onset of a new round of tanker sanctions by the Biden administration in October last year, which continued from the Trump administration, Iran was discharging 1.5 million barrels of oil daily at Chinese ports. Thus, despite the revival of loading volumes, Iran's oil discharge in China has sharply declined, leading to a massive volume of unsold Iranian oil reserves. Kpler's statistics show that the volume of unsold Iranian oil at sea has nearly increased sevenfold in recent months, exceeding 35 million barrels. Since October last year, when Iran conducted its second missile attack on Israel, the United States has sanctioned over 60 tankers carrying Iranian oil, and China has also banned the entry of sanctioned tankers into the Shandong port, the largest receiving terminal for Iranian oil, since January. Radio Farda's investigations from tanker tracking companies indicate that over 500 tankers with a carrying capacity of 450 million barrels are involved in the clandestine transport of Iranian oil; these tankers are colloquially referred to as the 'dark fleet' or 'ghost fleet.' So far, about 45 percent of the mentioned capacity has been sanctioned, but many tankers, including 47 large tankers in Iran's dark fleet, have not yet been sanctioned by the U.S. TankerTrackers has also noted that the U.S. has sanctioned 234 of the 522 tankers in Iran's dark fleet, which is equivalent to 45 percent of the active tankers involved in Iranian oil smuggling. The sanctioning of over 60 tankers in recent months, one-third of which are very large, with a capacity of transferring 2 million barrels, has disrupted the discharge of Iranian oil at Chinese ports. Some tankers, referred to as members of the 'ghost fleet,' have abandoned the Iranian market due to increased U.S. pressures on Iran and the rising freight rates for Russian oil, opting instead to transport Russian oil.