The Dangers of the Yemen War for Strategic Shipping Routes

With the continued support of Saudi Arabia and Iran for opposing factions in the Yemen war, the risks for vital shipping routes carrying oil and other consumer goods are increasing. According to a report by Reuters on May 12, millions of barrels of oil are transported daily from the shores of the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb to Europe, Asia, and America. The proximity of these maritime passages to the territories of Iran and Yemen raises risks for shipping in the region and will undoubtedly lead to increased insurance costs for ships. Last week, Iran released a container ship belonging to Maersk and its crew a few days after it was seized in the Strait of Hormuz. The seizure of this ship prompted the U.S. naval fleet in the region to escort ships flying the American flag. Prior to the Maersk incident, Iranian military vessels had pursued another ship near the Strait of Hormuz. John Dalby, from a private maritime security company that provides armed guards for ships, told Reuters, "The entire region has now become dangerous. It seems that most of this tension relates to the naval forces active in the region, including vessels from Iran and other countries. Compared to previous insecurities caused by Somali pirates, the current situation creates more instability because the actors involved are naval forces with much greater offensive capabilities." Marzieh Afkham, spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, stated on Wednesday that the Saudi-led naval forces would not be allowed to inspect ships carrying "humanitarian aid" to Yemen. The Saudi armed forces intend to inspect all ships heading to Yemen to prevent the transfer of weapons to Houthi rebels. Michael Frudell, an expert from an American research and security advisory institute, also told Reuters, "The question is whether the Bab el-Mandeb maritime passage could become dangerous enough for the Houthis to target ships with heavy weaponry? If that happens, the insurance costs for shipping in this region will certainly rise significantly." However, the factor of increased insurance costs may limit maritime trade as much as it reduces the scope of the war. Jatan Mous, from an international law office working for insurance companies, told Reuters, "The reality is that ships heading towards the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the eastern Mediterranean will have to change their routes not only due to the threat of attack or hijacking but also because of high insurance costs." Khalid Hashem, a manager at a large Thai shipping company, said, "If the situation becomes too dangerous, the increase in insurance costs may cause all maritime traffic to these areas to stop." He added that if Iran continues its transit for aid to Yemen instead of accepting the American proposal to transfer aid to Djibouti, it may lead to a reaction from the Saudi-led military coalition. Khalid Hashem stated, "Such a situation could increase tension and insecurity throughout the region, including the Red Sea, the Sea of Oman, and even the Strait of Hormuz." The waters of this region have become sufficiently unsafe in recent years due to attacks by Somali pirates and armed militia groups. In 2000, 17 American sailors were killed due to a suicide attack by al-Qaeda on a U.S. military ship in the Gulf of Aden. Two years later, al-Qaeda attacked a French oil tanker south of Bab el-Mandeb in the Gulf of Aden, which caused shipping insurance to triple. Philip Belcher from an international union of oil tanker owners noted that the increasing tension in the region has raised concerns because companies owning oil tankers remember incidents related to tanker wars in the 1980s.