Vulnerability Status of Countries Worldwide; Iran's 'Improvement' in Ranking

Recently, the Foundation For Peace (FFP) released its annual report on the "Vulnerability Index" of countries for the year 2016. The Foundation For Peace, a non-profit research and educational institution founded in 1975 in Washington with the aim of "preventing violent conflicts and promoting security," has collaborated with a wide range of organizations in over 60 countries across various sectors, including governmental, non-governmental, military, academic, journalism, civil society, and the private sector. This year's report, which is the twelfth annual report of the mentioned institution, assesses the vulnerability or fragility of 178 countries based on their stability and the pressures they face. The institution emphasizes that the vulnerability index for 2016 is based on data collected from January 1 to December 31, 2015, and some significant events of the current year are not included in this assessment. The FFP's evaluation indicators and sub-indicators utilize the Conflict Assessment Software Tool (CAST) and analyze millions of documents and reports each year, relying on twelve political, social, economic, and military indicators and over a hundred sub-indicators to determine countries' vulnerability rankings. The twelve key indicators are: 1. Demographic pressures (with sub-indicators such as food shortages, population growth, mortality rates, natural disasters, pollution, and water scarcity); 2. Pressures from refugees and internally displaced populations; 3. Group dissatisfaction (such as ethnic, religious, and sectarian tensions, discrimination); 4. Brain drain and educated human resources; 5. Unbalanced economic development (such as inequality in income and wealth distribution, urban and rural service levels); 6. Poverty and declining economic power (such as unemployment, purchasing power, per capita income, inflation, public debt, and GDP growth); 7. Government legitimacy (such as election processes and levels of government corruption); 8. Public services (such as police and law enforcement, crime rates, welfare and health, internet access, educational facilities, roads, and infrastructure); 9. Human rights and the rule of law; 10. Security situation (such as internal conflicts, riots and strikes, military coups, bombings, and political prisoners); 11. Division among national and local elites; 12. Foreign intervention (such as sanctions, foreign aid, military intervention by foreigners, and the presence of peacekeepers and UN forces). Countries are ranked by assigning a maximum of ten points to each of the twelve key indicators, and contrary to common practice, a lower total score indicates less vulnerability. In other words, countries with less vulnerability are placed lower in the ranking table, while higher scores, indicating greater vulnerability, push countries up the table. Therefore, Somalia, with a total of 114 points (out of a possible 120 points for the 12 indicators), ranks first in the vulnerability table for 2016. In contrast, Finland, with a total score of 18.8 points, ranks last in the table, indicating the lowest level of vulnerability and fragility among the 178 countries, making it the most stable country in the world according to the FFP. In addition to ranking, the institution categorizes countries based on their vulnerability into 11 groups as follows: Very High Risk (total score between 120 and 110); High Risk (between 109.99 and 100); Risk (between 99.99 and 90); Very High Warning (between 89.99 and 80); High Warning (between 79.99 and 70); Warning (between 69.99 and 60); Less Stable (between 59.99 and 50); Stable (between 49.99 and 40); Very Stable (between 39.99 and 30); Stable (between 29.99 and 20); Very Stable (from 19 down to zero). According to the FFP's ranking for 2016, the most vulnerable and fragile countries in the world, classified in the Very High Risk group, are as follows: 1. Somalia; 2. South Sudan; 3. Central African Republic; 4. Sudan; 5. Yemen; 6. Syria; 7. Chad; 8. Democratic Republic of the Congo. Countries with slightly lower vulnerability than the above group, classified in the High Risk group, are ranked as follows: 9. Afghanistan; 10. Haiti; 11. Iraq; 12. Guinea; 13. Nigeria; 14. Pakistan; 15. Benin; 16. Zimbabwe. The most stable countries, based on total scores and rankings in the Very Stable group, are: 153. Spain; 154. Malta; 155. Uruguay; 156. South Korea; 157. Japan; 158. France; 159. USA; 160. Slovenia; 161. Singapore; 162. UK. The report places fifteen countries in the Stable group based on their assigned scores and rankings: 163. Portugal; 164. Belgium; 165. Germany; 166. Netherlands; 167. Austria; 168. Luxembourg; 169. Canada; 170. Iceland; 171. Sweden; 172. Ireland; 173. Australia; 174. Switzerland; 175. Denmark; 176. New Zealand; 177. Norway. Finland, which has the lowest score and ranks 178 among the countries, is the most stable country in the world with negligible vulnerability. According to this report, the rankings of the so-called BRICS countries are as follows: 65. Russia; 70. India; 86. China; 108. South Africa; and 117. Brazil. Iran is ranked 47th in the FFP's report for 2016, along with 29 other countries in the Very High Warning group. The four major aspects of Iran's vulnerability are in the areas of poverty and declining economic power, public services, group dissatisfaction, and security situation. Iran was ranked 44th among 178 countries in 2015 and 2014, and in previous years, it had lower rankings among the 140 countries assessed, with its fragility peaking: 2013 rank 37; 2012 rank 34; 2011 rank 35; 2010 rank 32; and 2009 rank 38. Experts believe that the JCPOA and reduced concerns of Western countries regarding Iran's nuclear program have contributed to this country's better position in the vulnerability table for 2016. In the Middle East, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, as shown in the table above, Yemen and Syria are the most vulnerable countries in the region in 2016, both classified in the Very High Risk group. Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan are in the next group, the High Risk group. A look at Iran's ranking this year and two years prior shows that Iran's fragility is greater than Israel's and less than Egypt's, and for 2016, it holds a better position compared to Lebanon. In the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, with the least risk of vulnerability, are considered part of the stable group. Overall, researchers at the Foundation For Peace conclude in their summary at the end of the 2016 report that this year, 78 countries have reduced their vulnerability compared to the previous year to varying degrees, while the vulnerability of 77 countries has increased, and the rankings of 23 countries have not changed significantly. These researchers, referring to the events and crises of the past six months of the current year, including the migration flood to Europe, the ongoing civil war in Yemen, Syria, and Libya, conflicts in Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon with the terrorist group Boko Haram, and the fight against ISIS in the Middle East and North African countries, do not foresee a bright horizon for resolving conflicts and crises this year and do not rule out the emergence of new threats. Despite this despair and inevitability, the mentioned researchers state that several countries, such as Moldova, Cuba, Turkmenistan, Belarus, and island nations like Seychelles and Barbados, have achieved sustainable progress in reducing their vulnerability.