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Warning from the Head of Tehran Chamber: Currency Imbalance Will Increase to 17 Billion Dollars

Feb 5, 2026 February 5, 2026 2 min read 📰 VOA Persian
📋 Key Takeaway

The head of Tehran Chamber of Commerce warns that the trade imbalance in Iran is expected to rise significantly due to government currency policies affecting exporters. Mahmoud Najafi Arab highlights the negative impact of the currency commitment law on exports, which has seen a drastic decline. This situation raises concerns about the economic stability and future of trade in Iran.

🔍 Quick Context Guide
💡 Bottom Line: The warning highlights significant economic challenges in Iran, driven by government policies that may hinder trade and exacerbate inflation.

👥 Key Players

Mahmoud Najafi Arab MENTIONED
Head of Tehran Chamber of Commerce
"He represents the interests of Iranian businesses and is a key voice in advocating for economic reforms."
Iranian Government MENTIONED
Regulatory body overseeing currency policies
"Their policies directly impact the economic landscape, including trade and currency valuation."
Ahmad Alavi MENTIONED
Economic analyst
"He provides insights into the potential economic implications of government policies, particularly regarding inflation."

📰 What Happened

The head of Tehran Chamber of Commerce warned that Iran's trade imbalance is expected to increase from $7 billion to $17 billion due to restrictive currency policies affecting exporters. The currency commitment law is cited as a major factor in the decline of exports.

  • Exports of Iranian carpets fell from over $2 billion in the early 1990s to $400 million in 2022.
  • Economic actors are pushing back against the currency commitment law, which requires exporters to sell their foreign currency at government-set prices.

💡 Why It Matters

🇮🇷 For Iran: The rising trade imbalance could exacerbate economic instability, leading to higher inflation and reduced export revenues.
🌍 Regional: A weakened Iranian economy may affect regional trade dynamics and relations with neighboring countries.
🌐 International: International stakeholders may view Iran's economic struggles as a factor in its geopolitical behavior and negotiations regarding sanctions.

📚 Background

Iran has faced economic difficulties due to sanctions and internal policies that restrict trade and currency exchange. The currency commitment law is a controversial measure that has drawn criticism from business leaders.

Iranian economy Currency devaluation
📡 Source: NEUTRAL
📊 Confidence: 70%
The article is based on statements from a reputable economic figure and reflects ongoing economic discussions in Iran.

The head of Tehran Chamber of Commerce has stated that due to the government's insistence on currency policies related to exporters, the country's trade imbalance will rise from 7 billion dollars in the first seven months of this year to 17 billion dollars. Mahmoud Najafi Arab told the ILNA news agency that efforts to exempt at least the net private sector from the currency commitment law have not yet yielded results, and the currency obtained from their trade, which is about 13 billion dollars a year, must be offered in the 'NIMA system.' According to this chamber member, in the early 1990s, when the currency commitment system was not in place, exports thrived, and for example, during those years, the value of Iranian carpet exports soared to over 2 billion dollars, whereas in 2022, this figure plummeted to 400 million dollars. Reports indicate that the problems faced by economic actors with the currency commitment led the heads of the country's chambers of commerce to send a letter to the heads of the branches of government on October 8, outlining the obstacles and issues related to this type of commitment and criticizing it. Economic actors have stated that the obligation for exporters to sell the currency obtained from exports at the government price is the main factor behind the decline in exports and the increase in imports into the country. Additionally, there is a proposal to set the dollar at 35,000 tomans for the 2024 budget, which Ahmad Alavi claims will exacerbate inflation and economic recession. The internal conflict regarding corruption continues, with the head of the judiciary rejecting the executive branch's claims. There is also a likelihood of a surge in the dollar price, as a director from the Research Center of the Parliament stated that factors contributing to the increase in currency prices are still active.

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Translated from the original and edited for English readers. View original source →

Translation confidence: 85%

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