Warning of 67% Inflation Next Year; An Official Labor Organization: Protests in Iran Will Intensify

The head of the Union of Veteran Workers has warned in statements reflected in Iranian media that "we should expect 67% inflation next year and a further decline in the value of the national currency, and the result of such crises will be intensified protests" in Iran. Hassan Sadeghi stated that the government's reliance on the worn-out model of the International Monetary Fund is one of the reasons for the disarray in the country's economy, adding that in such conditions, an increase in gasoline and other energy prices is also on the way, which will result in intensified protests. He pointed out that over the past year, the prices of consumer goods in Iran have increased several times while wages have remained stagnant. The economic newspaper 'Asia News' reported on Wednesday, April 1, that some economists predict inflation for the new year to be above 40%, emphasizing that the increase in inflation will primarily confront the lower deciles of society with livelihood problems. Previously, Hamid Mirzadeh, former head of the Planning and Budget Organization, had mentioned in a note in the 'Etemad' newspaper on December 26 of last year the possibility of 50% inflation in the year 1403, following annual inflation rates above 40%, which he emphasized has been a guest at people's tables since 1397. Also, see: Statistical Center: Inflation rate above forty percent, but 'decreasing'; Deputy of Raisi: The meaning of 'decreasing inflation' is not that prices are not rising. He added: "The continuity of the decline in the value of the national currency, the continuation of economic recession, the decrease in the purchasing power of people, especially wage earners, and the increase in the poverty line have reduced the tolerance of low-income groups, which may consequently create the ground for economic and social upheavals." Meanwhile, the official channel of the Islamic Educators Association stated on Wednesday, referring to the unfulfilled economic promises and policies of Ebrahim Raisi, that "31 months have passed since Raisi's sweet dream, which has been a nightmare for Iran's economy," adding, "The 44% inflation of the previous government is now officially reported as 46%, and in people's tables, it is above 70%." In this context, Ahmad Alavi, a university professor and economist in Stockholm, Sweden, stated in an interview with Voice of America regarding the remarks of Islamic Republic officials about inflation: "Contrary to the claims of government officials, inflation is uncontrolled, and the continuous fluctuation of the inflation rate is evidence of this." Alavi added: "If one of the roots of Iran's inflation is the increase in liquidity based on the budget deficit, and since controlling the budget deficit and liquidity is not in sight, it can be said that the inflation rate will continue until the sources and roots are controlled." He further noted that the decrease in monetary value is also due to inflation and will affect the inflation rate, adding: "Therefore, there are multiple reasons for the increase in the inflation rate, and there is no prospect for its sustainable reduction, but it cannot be precisely and reliably determined how much this inflation will increase, as inflation is an indeterminate variable and fluctuates due to fundamental and psychological reasons stemming from various political and economic shocks, although its trend may be increasing." Meanwhile, the Statistical Center of Iran announced that the inflation rate for the year 1402 has been above 40% for the third consecutive year. According to the new report from this government center, the annual inflation rate in Esfand 1402 was about 40.7%, which means that the average prices of the consumer basket for Iranian households in this year were about 1.5 times the prices of Esfand 1401. In this report, the annual inflation rate in Ordibehesht last year was about 49.1%, in Tir it was 47.5%, and in Mehr it was 45.5%. The center also emphasized that the inflation rate in 1402 was lower than the previous year but higher than in 1400, and in all these years, it has been above 40%. The center wrote in another section of its report that the highest annual inflation in 1402 in the consumer basket for "fresh food" was 55.7%, and the cost of renting also increased by an average of 39.6%. Additionally, "fruits and nuts" increased by at least 4% during the New Year and in the last month of the year, and clothing and shoes also rose by 3.3%. Simultaneously, Davood Manzoor, Deputy of Ebrahim Raisi and Head of the Planning and Budget Organization, stated in a television program: "Decreasing inflation does not mean decreasing prices but indicates that the rate of price growth is slowing down and increasing at a lower slope." Iran's economy has faced multiple challenges, including high inflation in recent years. The Raisi government and state media are trying to portray the 40.7% inflation rate as an "achievement for themselves." They refer to the decrease in point-to-point inflation throughout the year 1402, claiming that this indicates the effectiveness of government policies; however, experts believe that the annual inflation rate is a more accurate indicator of the inflation situation in Iran, as it shows the average price increases over the course of a year. Workers' wages in 1403 are also lower than the inflation rate; the reactions to Khamenei's naming for the new year indicate that users are saying: "More poverty is on the way." Reports from the media indicate the acceleration of inflation under Raisi's government; nuts have become inaccessible. Protests from organizations regarding the minimum wage; the Tehran Bus Company Workers' Syndicate states that the only way is through unity and independent organization. The disappointment of workers continues; the determined wage only covers 40% of living expenses. An examination of Ali Khamenei's economic directive in the form of the slogan of the year shows that the government's economic performance is indefensible.