What is Rouhani's Next Step?

Karroubi spoke of "illegal docks" for smuggling goods by military personnel; Ahmadinejad referred to "our smuggler brothers," and today Hassan Rouhani explicitly discusses a very fundamental point, emphasizing that when information, guns, money, and media are concentrated in one place, even Salman and Abu Dharr will become corrupt. Rouhani also recently raised another key point, stating to extremist opponents that they have moved from think tanks to action rooms. If we put these two strategic and fundamental points together, it becomes very simple to conclude that the opposing current to the government has concentrated wealth, power, and deception in one place, and the center of economic and financial corruption is at this point. This familiarity and awareness indicate that Hassan Rouhani, with his long-standing security and governmental background, is much more aware of the behind-the-scenes than Mohammad Khatami, who has a cultural and guidance ministry background. His awareness is now aligned with that of the resilient Karroubi. The brave Karroubi also referred to the destructive, illegal, and anti-national actions of this concentrated point in some elections and made references to the interference of individuals from the Leader's household, mentioning names and titles. Now, regarding this issue, several points are noteworthy: the relationship between the Leader and his household with the think tank, action, and corruption of extremists. The relationship of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Leader of the Islamic Republic, with the current that has concentrated money, media, weapons, and information is very key and important. Is the Leader unaware? Is the Leader himself behind all these actions? Is the Leader also powerless against them? Or is the reality a combination of these three possibilities? This needs to be discussed more extensively. However, the commands of "do not prolong" in financial matters and economic corruption and the full defense of electoral fraud in 2009, which brought the Islamic Republic to a crisis, strengthen the second hypothesis. In a report by Saham News regarding the intelligence operations and psychological warfare that the extremists of the IRGC are conducting against Rouhani's government, it is stated that Rouhani has documented this behavior and its perpetrators to the Leader, who reportedly responded that they do not obey him. If this statement from the Leader is accurate, the third hypothesis becomes stronger, but the Leader's actions and spirit, on the one hand, and his concentrated and legal power, on the other hand, strengthen this possibility and perhaps turn it into a near certainty that the Leader, according to a spirit and approach that has been repeated many times, is trying to separate himself from some behind-the-scenes actions that are not openly defensible. Hashemi Rafsanjani is more familiar than others with this behavior and spirit of the Leader in relation to the currents that have been bent on destroying Hashemi for years with huge budgets. The public attack and imprisonment of Hashemi's children by two forces that are either connected to the household or whose head is essentially appointed by the Leader diminishes any other hypothesis. However, in any case, whether the Leader is unaware (which may not be in the fundamentals and generalities, but may be true in some details and margins) or whether things have gotten out of his hands (which may again be true in some margins and details, but not in the general lines and fundamental behaviors related to the domestic or foreign policy of the government) or whether the Leader himself supports these actions (for which there is ample documentation); now there is no Rouhani government or any other political or civil force that can directly confront the Leader and push him back in the existing balance of political power. (Of course, the movements for raising awareness for mid-term and long-term results are a separate matter). Therefore, the only way left for Rouhani is to try to create an environment where the Leader cannot openly support this political, economic, and media mafia and sometimes even practically compel him to slow down some of their advances and extremism due to public pressure, the personal interests of the Leader, and the pressures of social forces or international interests of the government. In summary, the practical result of this analysis is that the President and the government must, on the one hand, continuously communicate with the Leader on this matter and create a heavy atmosphere against the political and economic mafia. Especially since the Leader himself outwardly claims to be aligned and supportive in the fight against corruption. On the other hand, they must continuously and consistently mobilize public opinion behind them through enlightenment. The people, both the politically dissatisfied and the much larger number of economically dissatisfied, are both sensitive to economic corruption and follow the news with the highest degree of curiosity, exchanging it in their daily conversations. The extremists' defense of political repression under the pretext of enemies and sedition, or cultural repression using traditional religious and moral dogmas, is much simpler than entering into a biased discussion in favor of the economic mafia in a society that is severely afflicted by unemployment, poverty, class disparities, discrimination, and corruption. Talking and making statements or planning and acting? As much as verbal therapy can be instructive and beneficial in political and cultural issues, and even effective for the traditional religious body of society and the more honest elements of the government, it is harmful in the fight against economic, informational, and security corruption. Making statements and slogans against the economic mafia makes them aware and alert, and also provokes them for media confrontation and practical public and non-public destruction. Making statements and even boasting against political and economic mafias is effective and can even cause fear and retreat when accompanied by practical actions. These actions can include continuous enlightenment and detailing problems with public opinion, which brings the structure of this mafia from the shadows into the sunlight and also causes embarrassment and delegitimization of them and slows down their media deceptive weapons in other cases and times. However, unfortunately, Rouhani's government, apart from occasional statements that seem to warn and alert the opposite side or want to say that we are aware of your actions, does not share much more with public opinion. It seems that their audience is themselves, not the people. This approach, although beneficial for the government at the moment of making these statements and draws the people into empathy and cooperation, will ultimately harm the government due to lack of planning and depth and continuity in the medium term. Economic confrontation is more feasible and effective than political confrontation. The weakness of the right-wing extremists lies in their economic interests. Budget allocation and government contracts are the two main areas of the government's relationship with this area, namely the economic interests of the right-wing extremists. In the budget bill presented by the government to the parliament, despite its severe contraction, unfortunately, the budget for military organizations is about thirty percent higher than their budget last year. This is the second line item that has seen a noticeable increase (the first line item pertains to the budget for health-related matters, which is a very positive and groundbreaking action by the government that should be able to continue with expert and realistic planning). The increase in the budget of institutions close to the right-wing extremists (in various political, military, cultural, and media fields...) indicates a kind of contradiction between the statements of the President and the budgetary allocations that are made from public funds to them. Some economic reasons cited for this budget increase, such as meeting the financial needs of these institutions, do not match the percentage increase in their budget and are more political than economic. Moreover, politically, the government should not pay them financial bribes; more importantly, the government should pressure them financially to force them to retreat politically to their legal positions and responsibilities. Regarding the second area, that is, government contracts, contradictory news is also heard. Among them is that some ministries are no longer contracting with the IRGC and similar entities. Although these reports seem to contradict the government's budget-writing behavior, if true, it would be a very positive step to push the right-wing extremists back to their minority political position in Iranian society and, regarding the IRGC, to their legal responsibilities. Perhaps the government's approach, especially that of the President, to the right-wing extremist think tank can only be verbal, but confronting their action room in the first stage and before any other action requires taking control of the Ministry of Intelligence by the government. So far, various indications have shown the opposite of this reality. Without employing legal tools, continuous political lobbying and discussions at the top, and especially active and continuous communication with public opinion, making statements against extremists who have shown themselves to be very ruthless and unprincipled in the political competition will only be an unsupported boast and will alert and provoke the opposite side. Just as Rouhani's unilateral ceasefire with the opposite side and his attempt to unify them and prioritize the fundamental problems of the country was fruitless, and his interaction with the parliament and his moderate faction also ended in failure; his statements and boasts will also yield little practical result. The President is responsible regarding this enormous danger. He once said he is willing to sacrifice his life for this covenant. Perhaps life is not necessary, but awareness and determination are essential. Rouhani is now on the brink of addressing a major part of the country's problems. But what is his next step? Occasional statements and boasts or practical actions, especially by tightening the vital breathing space of corruption and repression in its economic and financial foundations? Karroubi's morning nap rendered his prior awareness of the actions of this mafia ineffective. They did what they wanted. Rouhani's managerial nap, despite his greater and more precise awareness, will not have another outcome for the country and the people.