What Paths Does Iran's Economy Have After Sanctions Are Lifted?

Although international sanctions against Iran have not yet been lifted, the small horizon created by the continuation of nuclear negotiations has led economic circles to address the topic of "post-sanctions" and examine the scenarios awaiting Iran's economy. Radio Farda, in an interview with Mehrdad Emadi, an economic expert and advisor to international institutions based in Britain, asked what paths Iran has in the potential post-sanctions period to enter an era of economic prosperity. Mehrdad Emadi stated: "The return to a market economy does not mean that we become a consumer economy. Unfortunately, whenever we have had a bit more financial freedom from oil revenues, consumption has increased instead of production. However, if we look at many countries with proper economic management, the increase in income from selling a raw material or even energy carriers has been used as an investment source to enhance the community's capacity for producing high-quality domestic goods that can compete in foreign markets, and secondly, to increase employment with this production. The door you say is now opening can be positive for Iran's economy and its people only if we reverse the management practices of recent years, focusing on exporting goods and importing raw materials and production technology. Emadi further elaborated that the reconstruction of economic infrastructure is not a short-term solution and will take time. He noted that looking at models from India, Turkey, South Korea, and Mexico, it takes at least six years to rebuild technological infrastructure. He emphasized that Iran's industrial base has become very fragile due to a lack of investment in production goods. After the potential end of sanctions, Iranian assets will be freed, resulting in a significant amount of liquidity. Banks will be able to continue their normal operations internationally. However, Emadi expressed skepticism that this would lead to economic balance in Iran, stating that monopolies are currently destroying the economy. He believes that while positive changes will occur, they will not necessarily lead to the equilibrium that involves not just supply and demand balance in markets but also sufficient investment in domestic production to create positive growth that exceeds population growth.