US and Israel Prepare for Imminent Large-Scale Strikes on Iran's Energy Infrastructure as Tehran Threatens Retaliation and IRGC Intercepts Tankers in Strait of Hormuz

⚖️ Two accounts of the same story

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The risk level is high due to credible reports of imminent large-scale US-Israeli military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure, coupled with Iran's direct threats of retaliation against US and Israeli assets, and active military engagements including IRGC interception of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and drone attacks on a US base in Kuwait.

📌 Key developments

• The United States and Israel are reportedly planning a major bombing campaign targeting Iran's energy infrastructure, including power plants and oil refineries, with strikes possible as early as this weekend, August 1-2, 2026.
• Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced on Friday, August 1, that it struck and stopped two tankers attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under US 'aerial escort,' leading Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority to declare transit through the waterway 'not possible' due to US actions.
• Iran's military claimed to have launched drone strikes targeting US military facilities at Ahmad al-Jaber Air Base in Kuwait on Friday, August 1, though Kuwait's defense ministry reported intercepting and destroying hostile drones.
• Iran has warned of a 'comprehensive plan' to retaliate against any potential US-Israeli strikes, threatening to target critical infrastructure in Israel and US energy installations across the region.
• UN human rights experts raised alarm over alleged torture, enforced disappearances, and arbitrary detention of approximately 57 Baháʼís in Iran, with some reportedly subjected to mock executions and coerced confessions.
• Former UN prosecutor Professor Payam Akhavan stated that Iran's recent public hangings of protesters, including Amirhossein Safari and Abolfazl Sepahi in Isfahan on July 28, constitute 'killings' and 'murders' and are part of a continuing crime against humanity.
• President Trump expressed 'losing faith' in Iran, accusing Tehran of 'lying' and 'misrepresenting' in ongoing nuclear talks, while confirming that negotiations remain active despite his skepticism.
• Global oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude futures settling at $90.12 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $84.67 a barrel on Friday, July 31, driven by escalating US-Iran tensions and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Iranian Rial (IRR) continued its depreciation, with reports indicating it hit over 1.9 million to the US Dollar (USD) in July, reflecting the severe economic impact of US attacks and sanctions.

💡 Why it matters

For investors, the imminent threat of strikes on energy infrastructure and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz signals extreme volatility in global oil markets and potential broader economic instability. Policymakers face a rapidly escalating conflict with direct military actions and counter-threats, demanding urgent diplomatic intervention to prevent a wider regional war. Journalists should focus on verifying military actions, tracking humanitarian impacts, and analyzing the veracity of claims from all parties, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz and potential cyberattacks.

👀 What to watch

• Any confirmed reports of US-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and the specific targets hit.
• Iran's retaliatory actions, particularly against Israeli or US energy assets in the region, or further actions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Statements from the US, Israeli, and Iranian leadership regarding the military escalation and the status of negotiations.
• Updates on the investigation into alleged Iranian cyberattacks on US water systems.