Iran and Oman are in the final stages of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi explicitly stated Iran will continue nuclear weapons development as long as the US and Israel possess them.

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The nearing agreement on the Strait of Hormuz offers a potential de-escalation point but is complicated by Iran's conditions and demands for control and fees. Simultaneously, the IRGC's public declaration of continued nuclear weapons development directly challenges international non-proliferation efforts and raises the stakes significantly. Iran's explicit threats to retaliate against Gulf states' energy infrastructure if the US launches new strikes further elevates regional tensions and the risk of broader conflict. The continued depletion of US missile stockpiles also impacts the strategic balance.

📌 Key developments

• Iran and Oman are in the final stages of drafting an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran insisting on the US ending its naval blockade and seeking control over inbound shipping and potential transit fees.
• IRGC Commander-in-Chief Ahmad Vahidi declared that Iran will continue to develop nuclear weapons as long as the United States and Israel possess them, prompting warnings from nuclear experts.
• Iran has warned Gulf states that any new US attack on Iranian territory would result in retaliation against critical energy infrastructure across the region.
• A commercial tanker reported two explosions in the Strait of Hormuz today, and Iran-backed Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, while the IRGC claimed to have struck other tankers in the Strait.
• US President Trump reportedly confronted Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over being misled about the severe depletion of US long-range precision missile stockpiles, including ATACMS, PrSM, and Tomahawk missiles, during the five-month war with Iran.

💡 Why it matters

The potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could ease global energy market pressures but hinges on complex political concessions and maritime control. The IRGC's nuclear weapons statement directly challenges international non-proliferation efforts and signals a hardening of Iran's stance, potentially complicating future diplomatic efforts. Iran's explicit threats to regional energy infrastructure significantly raise the risk of a wider regional conflict, while the ongoing US missile depletion could impact the strategic calculus of all parties.

👀 What to watch

• Any official announcement or further details regarding the Iran-Oman agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, particularly concerning US blockade removal and transit fees.
• Reactions from the US, Israel, and international bodies to IRGC Commander Vahidi's statement on nuclear weapons development.
• Further maritime incidents or claims of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz or Red Sea.
• Updates on the US response to Iran's threats against Gulf states and any diplomatic efforts to de-escalate.