📋 Iran Politics Brief

Top Iranian Military Adviser Warns of 'Offensive and Destructive' Phase if US Strikes Continue, Declaring End to 'War and Negotiation' Policy.

July 18, 2026 · 🔴 Risk: High

⚖️ Two accounts of the same story

Where sources agree

There is a strong consensus across multiple sources that the US-Iran conflict is escalating significantly, the interim MoU has collapsed, and Iran is adopting a more aggressive stance, including threats of offensive operations. The focus is heavily on military actions and the breakdown of diplomacy.

Where sources differ

While the dominant narrative points to escalation, some sources also note that the White House still states President Trump is 'open to diplomacy,' and that some Iranian political figures, like Parliament Speaker Qalibaf, defend continuing talks. This suggests a potential internal divergence or a strategic messaging approach, where the door to diplomacy is not entirely shut by all parties, even amidst hardline rhetoric.

Each outlet's position is reported as that outlet's position, not as established fact. Every contradiction we've recorded →

The direct warning from Mohsen Rezaei, a senior advisor to the Supreme Leader, that Iran will escalate to an 'offensive and destructive' phase if US strikes persist, coupled with the declared end of the 'both war and negotiation' policy and the collapse of the interim Memorandum of Understanding, significantly increases the risk of a wider, more aggressive conflict.

📌 Key developments

Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned on Friday, July 17, 2026, that Iran will enter an 'offensive and destructive' phase if US attacks continue for 'another two to three days,' declaring an end to the policy of 'both war and negotiation.'
Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baqaei stated on Friday, July 17, 2026, that Tehran has no plans for further negotiations with Washington, confirming that diplomacy is currently far from achieving a consistent outcome.
The interim Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran has effectively collapsed due to renewed military exchanges, with Iran's Parliament National Security Committee formally declaring the agreement void on July 14, 2026.
Iran has reportedly instructed its regional allies, including Hezbollah, to prepare for the possibility of a broader conflict amid military escalations with the United States.
On July 14, 2026, Iran's parliament voted two outspoken critics of negotiations with the United States, Mahmoud Nabavian and Ebrahim Rezaei, out of senior posts on its National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, indicating some internal political maneuvering.

💡 Why it matters

This shift in rhetoric from a key advisor to the Supreme Leader indicates a significant escalation in Iran's willingness to engage in direct and potentially more aggressive military actions. It suggests that diplomatic avenues are being actively closed off by Iran, increasing the likelihood of a wider regional conflict and making de-escalation efforts considerably more challenging for analysts and policymakers.

👀 What to watch

Any further statements or actions from Iranian leadership or military officials that elaborate on the 'offensive and destructive' phase.
The nature and targets of any continued US strikes and Iranian retaliatory actions, particularly if they expand beyond current patterns.
Reactions from regional and international actors, especially regarding calls for de-escalation or new diplomatic initiatives.

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