Algeria: The Tough Chess Game Between the Ruling Elite and Protesters

It is unclear whether the recent statement by Abdelaziz Bouteflika regarding his withdrawal from the Algerian presidential election was actually drafted by him (meaning he was physically capable of thinking and writing) or if it was written for him by the core power structure, composed of the military leadership, the leadership of the National Liberation Front of Algeria, security institutions, and Bouteflika's brother, who has been more active behind the scenes than Bouteflika himself in recent years. Bouteflika's withdrawal from the presidential candidacy came after weeks of protests. Many believe that the agitation and mobilization of certain disgruntled factions within the power structure (including Mohamed Mediene, known as Toufik, the powerful head of the country's security agency until 2015) who sought to settle scores with Bouteflika are to some extent behind the unprecedented demonstrations in Algeria these days. However, the scale of the protests, the clashes on Friday, and the role that youth played in them became broader than can be analyzed within the framework of the opportunistic tactics of certain elements from within the power structure. This breadth and peaceful participation were able to overcome the doubts of parts of society regarding whether Algeria would experience a bitter fate similar to the Arab Spring (Syria, Libya, Yemen), and instead, the Tunisian experience became more prominent in the outlook. The fear that the country would revert to years of civil war has also diminished. Although there are still warning voices from responsible and concerned figures regarding the actions of various factions of power against each other or the entry of extremist elements and tendencies into the movement, which could lead to instability and chaos. On Saturday, the government attempted to effectively send a portion of the youth back to their hometowns and homes by closing universities. University professors immediately issued statements refusing to comply with this closure. A thousand lawyers also stated in a statement that they would not supervise any elections in which Bouteflika participates. Some sections of labor and employer unions close to the government also turned to solidarity with the protesters out of fear of embarrassment. Some police also accompanied the protesters on Friday, and the transport strike, which was supposed to last for five days, was somewhat successful. Two rival football teams in Algeria, who remain like fighting roosters, announced that they would stand together brotherly on Friday and sing a unified anthem. Neither the protesting stance of Egyptian President Sisi against the Algerian protesters nor his solidarity with his Algerian counterpart affected the protesters, nor did the expression of support from a branch of Al-Qaeda for the protests create any disruption in their resolve. Although some Friday prayer leaders have joined the protesters, the remnants of religious forces damaged by the civil war remain silent and may be looking for a better opportunity to emerge. In his statement regarding his withdrawal from candidacy, Bouteflika wrote that he has heard the voices of the youth and understands their concerns for the future of the country. He spoke of Algeria entering a sensitive period in its history and praised the peaceful protests of the youth. He announced the dismissal of the unpopular Prime Minister and changes in the government, and mentioned the postponement of elections until a national conference on a new constitution could be drafted by the end of the year, followed by a referendum for its approval and then presidential elections. The problem for the ruling elite, which has opaque internal relations resembling a black box with various and conflicting interests intertwined, was that they could not agree on any option other than Bouteflika, who was practically not an option. Although he may have been credible a few years ago due to his prominent role in ending the 13-year civil war between the army and Islamists and channeling some of the vast oil revenues into society, now half of the society has neither seen that civil war nor is there news of the vast oil and gas revenues. His stroke in 2012 and his transformation into a leader who, as Algerians say, is only present in photographs, and from whom no public words have been heard since the stroke, dealt the final blow. The younger generation of Algeria found it shameful that a more decrepit president than the last days of Yeltsin should symbolize and represent their country. Of course, there are other leaders who neither leave the country, nor are accountable anywhere, nor interview with any media, and only have monologues and love the microphone and the slogans sung in their praise. However, the era of these leaders is also more or less coming to an end. Now that Bouteflika has withdrawn from re-election under pressure from two weeks of protests, the ruling elite is not taking the risk of hastily cobbling together a candidate and entering the April 18 elections unprepared. They have now provided themselves with the opportunity to think and organize their forces and determine a successor for Bouteflika by sweetly promising the protesters the drafting of a constitution. In their first reaction to this development, the protesters have called for demonstrations for the upcoming Friday, effectively showing their skepticism about Bouteflika remaining in power for another year or more and the possible plans of the ruling elite to maintain the status quo. The coming days will clarify the course of future developments in Algeria and the political future of this country, but so far, the people of Algeria have seen some results of their uprising, even if the outlook for developments is accompanied by ambiguities and the ruling elite does not easily submit to the division and clarification of power. Nevertheless, a return to the complete characteristics of the Bouteflika era seems unlikely.