An Economist: 70% Inflation is on the Way; Statistical Center: Inflation Decreased

While the Statistical Center of Iran has reported a decrease in inflation in its latest report, stating that inflation in July was 2 percent, an economist has claimed that a 70 percent inflation rate is also "visible." The Statistical Center announced that the monthly inflation rate in July recorded 1.95 percent, marking the lowest monthly inflation in the last 16 months, and that point-to-point inflation has decreased by 3.2 percentage points, falling into the 30 percent range, reaching 39.4 percent. A 2 percent monthly inflation means that the price index increased by 2 percent compared to the previous month. Point-to-point inflation refers to the percentage change in the price index compared to the same month of the previous year. Accordingly, the annual inflation rate is the percentage change in the average price index numbers over the year ending in the current month compared to the same period before it. According to the Statistical Center of Iran, the annual inflation rate for food and beverages in July was 66.9 percent, which has decreased compared to the previous month. Economic experts believe this decreasing trend is a result of distancing from the initial impact of removing the 4200 toman exchange rate from the economy. As a result, with the distancing from the consequences of this economic policy, the new price levels in the market stabilize and become the basis for calculations, which differ significantly from the previous period. Reports from Voice of America based on the Statistical Center's report indicate the worsening economic situation in rural communities in Iran, with annual inflation in this sector nearing 52 percent in July, while the annual inflation for urban residents was calculated at 46.8 percent. According to this report, food inflation in July was 67 percent, with red meat and poultry leading at an inflation rate of 86 percent. Studies show that in the year ending in July, the inflation rate for dairy products and eggs, which are among the most important daily consumption items, was 71.5 percent. The report indicates that oils have the highest annual inflation rate at 145 percent. Another interesting point is that the inflation rate for bread and cereals was 58.3 percent, indicating a creeping price increase in this sector. Although the new statistics show a decreasing trend, experts believe that the Iranian economy faces larger challenges ahead. In this regard, an economic expert told the "Khabar Online" website: "I hope this does not happen, but if the money supply growth exceeds 4 percent per month and economic growth is close to 1 to 2 percent, we could see a 70 percent inflation rate." Peyman Molavi stated that with 3 percent economic growth and 30 percent money supply growth, inflation cannot be below 40 percent annually; "this is simply impossible." Previously, a representative from Bostanabad in the Islamic Consultative Assembly had stated that the real inflation in the country is 120 percent, describing the government of Ebrahim Raisi's inflation figure of 40 percent as "playing with numbers." Gholamreza Noori Ghazaljeh, on Saturday, July 17, in an interview with the news website "Ruydad 24," referred to the rising cost of living and shrinking family budgets, calling the claim of controlling inflation a "product of the government's and officials' minds." A member of the Internal Affairs and Councils Commission in the Assembly emphasized that the criteria for controlling prices should be reflected in the rates of food items, car prices, housing rents, and household appliances, stating, "There is no news of expressing the truth." Official statistics show that 40 percent of the unemployed are educated. Pasta and soy instead of Ghorme Sabzi and Zereshk Polo with chicken; inflation has reached the Muharram donations. A newspaper close to Ali Khamenei criticized the government, asking how long the people's tables must shrink. The magazine "Forbes" introduced the Iranian rial as the weakest currency in the world. Inflation is taking jobs away; "fast food restaurants" are on the brink of bankruptcy.