Approval of the 1398 Budget Based on '5800 Toman Dollar'

One day after the approval of the 1398 budget by the Iranian government, the spokesman for the parliamentary board announced that, according to his sources, the oil price in this bill is set at $54. Meanwhile, the deputy head of the Iranian Organization of Planning and Budget has stated that in the new budget, the exchange rate is considered to be at least around 5800 tomans. According to the IRNA news agency, Mohammad Baqer Nobakht, head of the Organization of Planning and Budget, announced on Tuesday, December 3, that the budget bill for 1398 will be presented to the parliament on Thursday. Mr. Nobakht stated that "given the conditions of sanctions, drafting the 1398 budget was difficult, but a reasonable budget was prepared." The Iranian cabinet approved the 1398 budget on the evening of Sunday, December 2. Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Hamid PourMohammadi, the deputy head of the Organization of Planning and Budget, said at a corporate banking conference: "The government is the largest player in the currency market, and any behavior it exhibits will affect economic actors; therefore, the Organization of Planning and Budget considered the exchange rate to be at least around 5800 tomans to reduce currency market fluctuations and establish calm in the market." Prior to him, Behrouz Namati, spokesman for the parliamentary board, mentioned in an interview with Iranian television that, according to his sources, the dollar price in next year's budget is estimated to be around 5700 tomans. This parliament member mentioned this dollar rate while the dollar price in the free market is currently reported to be around twelve thousand tomans. He also reported that the government has set the price of $54 per barrel of oil in the next year's budget bill. The current price of Brent oil is less than $60, and West Texas Intermediate oil is around $51. The price of each barrel of Iranian crude oil is usually two or three dollars less than the price of Brent North Sea oil. In the 1397 budget, the oil price was projected at $55 per barrel and the dollar price at 3500 tomans. The spokesman for the parliamentary board also stated that in the 1398 budget, it is projected that Iran will export 1.5 million barrels of oil daily. Previously, the Fars news agency reported that the amount of oil sales in next year's budget is projected to be one million barrels per day at a price of $60 per barrel. Based on these projections, Iran's oil sales in 1398 are about half of the projected sales for 1397. The Research Center of the Iranian Parliament had previously predicted that with the return of US oil sanctions, Iran's oil exports would decrease to 500,000 barrels per day in an optimistic scenario and to one million barrels per day in a pessimistic scenario. In this year's budget law, the export of more than two million barrels of crude oil and gas condensates at an average price of $55 was projected, which was expected to bring in slightly more than $48 billion for the country. According to government officials, "providing essential goods for the people with government currency" is among the other features of next year's budget. Meanwhile, Ali Larijani, the Speaker of Parliament, stated on Tuesday that the government and parliament have not yet made a final decision on this matter. According to Mr. Larijani, some officials believe that the prices of goods should be realistic and subsidies should be given to the people, while others believe that these goods should still be provided with government currency. According to the government's resolution, employees earning less than three million tomans and individuals covered by support institutions receive a support package. According to the internal regulations of the parliament, the government is obliged to present the budget bill for the next year to the parliament by December 6. In this context, Jahangiri: The idea of cutting Iran's oil exports is an illusion. A letter from 38 economists to Rouhani to reconsider the establishment of the 'secondary currency market.' Nobakht: The budget for next year will be a shadow budget 'commensurate with sanctions.' A decline of 'one million barrels' in Iran's oil exports to Asia. A '70 percent' increase in the prices of essential goods in Iran over one year. Severe government repression and the danger of 'underground' protests.