14 Years Later: The Middle East After September 11

The world after September 11 is a different world, and America after September 11 bears little resemblance to America before it. Over one trillion dollars have been imposed on the U.S. budget due to the costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, turning past budget surpluses into a deficit. In the quest for a balance between security and welfare, and between peace and war, the United States temporarily became a country in a state of perpetual war, and it was only after Barack Obama's administration that significant efforts were made to change this course. However, across the two oceans that traditionally protect the United States from threats, the world has also been in turmoil, battling domestic and regional terrorism, along with economic and social crises. In the Middle East, this phenomenon manifests itself in two forms: as a generator of terrorism and as a confrontation with terrorism. On one hand, the West views some Middle Eastern countries as supporters and generators of terrorism, leading to the Western war machine fighting against terrorism in those regions. On the other hand, terrorists have found safe havens in certain areas, targeting ordinary people and governments as agents of the West with brutal operations. Such scenes have become the norm in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and other parts of the Middle East, where if a day goes by without incident, it is an exception, while daily casualties in the tens and hundreds are the rule. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq placed the United States in a position where creating a new network of international coalitions to combat terrorism became necessary. This necessity transformed the geographical map of the world. The sources of international threats influence daily life in ways that operate completely differently from the Cold War era. Small and disparate groups that no longer fit within the geographical and conceptual framework of nation-states are active on an international level. For this reason, NATO alone is insufficient to contain the threats of the post-September 11 era, and the United States must focus moment by moment on nearly every part of the world, especially the Middle East and North Africa, as the cradle of today's global terrorist threats. The nature of threats has also fundamentally changed, shifting from war with political units to groups that are flexible and spontaneously grow like weeds underground, without resembling each other. Pakistan and Afghanistan - In Southwest Asia, where Pakistan is traditionally not considered part of the Middle East, it initially became a sort of ally after September 11, having been under U.S. arms sanctions before that. However, it failed to gain U.S. trust, especially after it was revealed that Osama bin Laden was hiding near a Pakistani military academy, leading to a cooling of relations between Pakistan and the U.S. Pakistan has always been concerned about U.S. drone programs and their occasional targeting, fearing that the entire Afghan war process could lead to encirclement by India and Afghanistan. This factor also contributed to the cooling of relations between the two countries. Jalil Roshandel, a political science professor in the U.S., notes that Pakistan has always been worried about U.S. drone programs and their occasional targeting, fearing that the entire Afghan war process could lead to encirclement by India and Afghanistan. Afghanistan is still embroiled in Taliban hostilities, which are primarily hidden in neighboring Pakistan or in mountainous regions of Afghanistan. There is hardly a day that Taliban religious hostilities do not manifest in the form of killings, and Pakistan has no incentive to cut its support for the Taliban. On the other hand, the current Afghan government has not yet become strong enough to experience any degree of stability, although there is hope for such a situation at its highest form. At the same time, terrorism is hidden in every neighborhood, waiting to emerge and hoping to seize governmental power. Turkey - One of Iraq's neighbors and the second war zone in the Middle East - is Turkey. This Cold War ally and long-time NATO member has shown dual reactions to the events of September 11 and its aftermath. Initially, there was significant cooperation regarding the war in Afghanistan, but since 2003, when the occupation of Iraq became part of George Bush's agenda, Turkey's foreign policy behavior towards the U.S. changed. On the other hand, Turkey underwent a kind of rebirth and transformation internally. The combination of internal and external developments, despite providing Turkey with suitable opportunities, ultimately showed fundamental changes with the rise of the Justice and Development Party along three axes. Each of these axes affected the quality of relations with the U.S.: - Relations with Israel, which had never been hostile since the establishment of the Israeli state in 1948, turned into tension and verbal disputes, even implicit threats. It seemed that Turkey, especially in recent years, was using tension with Israel as a factor in domestic politics to eternalize the power of the ruling party. - Despite being well-acquainted with the issue of terrorism and suffering from it internally, and having been part of the coalition forces in Afghanistan at the beginning of the war against terrorism, Turkey did not allow the U.S. to use NATO bases during the 2003 war in Iraq. - Turkey did not support U.S. sanctions against Iran, despite generally approving of the policy and opposing Iran's nuclear program, which fueled hidden tensions in relations between the two countries. - Internally, progress was made in resolving issues with the PKK. The PKK leader, under pressure from the European Union and hoping to use it as leverage to control relations with Turkey's Kurds, was spared from execution. In Turkey, domestic terrorism has been somewhat contained, but Kurds remain adamant in their demands for rights. It was believed that the process of integrating Kurds internally would progress well, but ten years later, following the emergence of the phenomenon known as the 'Islamic State' (ISIS), everything changed again. Today, Turkey's war with the PKK has replaced peaceful coexistence and continues with intensity, while Islamic fundamentalism is quietly creeping beneath the surface of Turkey. Jalil Roshandel, a political science professor in the U.S., notes that domestic terrorism has been somewhat contained in Turkey, but Kurds remain adamant in their demands for rights. It was believed that the process of integrating Kurds internally would progress well, but ten years later, following the emergence of the phenomenon known as the 'Islamic State' (ISIS), everything changed again. Today, Turkey's war with the PKK has replaced peaceful coexistence and continues with intensity, while Islamic fundamentalism is quietly creeping beneath the surface of Turkey. Iran - Between October 2001 (the start of the war against terrorism in Afghanistan) and the occupation of Iraq (March 2003), transformations occurred in Iran whose effects are still evident in international politics. The acceleration of Iran's nuclear activities and the revelation of its underground operations in 2003 led Iran to be embroiled in resolving issues stemming from its nuclear programs until today. However, on the other hand, the West's, especially the U.S.'s, engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq allowed Iran to emerge as a regional power despite economic pressures and sanctions, and after the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, Iran was able to influence Iraq's political structure. Concurrently, Iran strengthened its influence in Syria. Although the goals of Syria's relationship with Iran differ from Iran's objectives in Syria, it seems that both sides know well what they are doing and what they want. Iran uses Syria as a bridge to reach Lebanon and continue supporting Hezbollah. The relationship with Hezbollah is justified in Iran's political-religious philosophy but is also interpreted as hostility towards Israel. Syria, which has been somewhat ostracized from the Arab world, sees in its friendship with Iran and Russia major financial and military supporters that can help sustain Assad's regime. Iran's regional power is somewhat a product of September 11. If the U.S. and the West had not been embroiled in the two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq after September 11, multiple other scenarios could have emerged that could have altered the balance among the Gulf powers. Most importantly, Saddam Hussein, Iran's long-time enemy, remained in a ceasefire condition after the war with Iran, and it was unclear what actions he might take in the region. Jalil Roshandel notes that Iran's regional power is somewhat a product of September 11. If the U.S. and the West had not been embroiled in the two wars in Afghanistan and Iraq after September 11, multiple other scenarios could have emerged that could have altered the balance among the Gulf powers. Most importantly, Saddam Hussein, Iran's long-time enemy, remained in a ceasefire condition after the war with Iran, and it was unclear what actions he might take in the region. The political rulers of the Islamic Republic during the fourteen years following September 11 first replaced the reformist government of Mohammad Khatami with the populist government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In Ahmadinejad's second term, he faced a significant challenge from Mir-Hossein Mousavi, but the situation ended with a mild coup, and political opposition leaders were sentenced to house arrest without ever being tried and have remained in prison to this day. If we consider the 2009 elections as something akin to the Arab Spring phenomenon in other parts of the Middle East, Iran's spring was bloody and failed to protect its leaders. Nineteen of the September 11 terrorists were Saudi nationals, but Saudi leaders adopted a policy that preserved the political credibility of the country in front of the West and the U.S. While Iran, whose people and even the then-president mourned and expressed condolences for the victims of September 11, faced the most severe economic pressures for over a decade due to its opportunistic behavior and the use of every opportunity to create an enemy. While before September 11, crude oil was sold for about twelve dollars a barrel, due to the crisis following September 11, oil prices began to rise day by day, and this oil money somewhat helped Iran's economy. When Iran could no longer withstand the sanctions and its economic structure was on the verge of collapse, it accepted the conditions of the P5+1 countries, and the irony is that on the night of the fourteenth anniversary of September 11, the agreement with Iran for lifting sanctions in exchange for a retreat from its nuclear programs passed through Congress in the U.S. Jalil Roshandel notes that when Iran could no longer withstand the sanctions and its economic structure was on the verge of collapse, it accepted the conditions of the P5+1 countries, and the irony is that on the night of the fourteenth anniversary of September 11, the agreement with Iran for lifting sanctions in exchange for a retreat from its nuclear programs passed through Congress in the U.S. The Arab Spring - Another consequence of September 11 in the Middle East was the emergence of the Arab Spring phenomenon. Various springs began in Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, and Egypt, each with its own colors and blossoms, but perhaps with the exception of Algeria and Yemen, no other successful cases can be cited. In Egypt, the Arab Spring initially shone by ousting 'Mubarak,' the lifelong president, but the government did not last! The Muslim Brotherhood quickly lost to the military, and although it was the first government elected by the people after the Arab Spring, it simply disappeared, and its leaders and supporters were either killed or imprisoned for long terms. In Jordan and Morocco and some North African countries, the Arab Spring did not bloom and subsided without any major changes. However, in Syria, or better said, in the area between Syria and Iraq, a group that called itself the 'Islamic State' emerged, and for the past four years, it has killed and destroyed as much as it could. On the eve of September 11, 2015, the crisis stemming from the presence of this group, on one hand, and Syria's inability to cope or to include its political opponents, who initially wanted nothing more than a share in the political game, turned into a four-year war that, as of the time of writing this summary, has left at least 250,000 dead and sent half of Syria's population to refugee shelters around the world. Iraq - Undoubtedly, the damage inflicted on Iraq after September 11, 2001, or more accurately, after the occupation of Iraq by major world powers and the U.S. is incredible. By 2011, nearly fifty countries were working together in a military coalition to keep Iraq occupied. However, the military occupation of Iraq quickly lost its supporters, and the need to reconsider U.S. strategy in Iraq became apparent. Some NATO members were also opposed to it. Washington had superficial support from some Arab countries, but this support was not sufficient to keep forces in Iraq, and eventually, this support diminished to the point that it led to the call for American forces to withdraw, and suddenly a void of military-security power and lawlessness turned Iraq back into a scene of internal reckoning and slaughter. It was from this chaos that the 'Islamic State' (ISIS) emerged, and as previously mentioned, it became a killing machine using interpretations of Quranic verses. To this day, the limited air and ground forces trained to combat ISIS have been unable to put an end to its activities. The emergence of ISIS has led to a broader emergence and influence of Iran in the region, but neither the Iranian forces sent to Iraq nor the Western forces have been able to end this phenomenon, which recruits its fighters from among European and American youth.