2016: The Beginning of the Missile Crisis

If we consider 2015 to be the end of Iran's nuclear crisis (which is subject to serious doubts), then 2016 must be regarded as the beginning of the missile crisis. The Islamic Republic's nuclear project was a project that for 12 consecutive years, longer than the 8-year war, affected all the affairs of the country. If during the 8-year war only one binding resolution (Resolution 598) was imposed on Iran, in the nuclear project numerous UN resolutions, EU sanctions, and independent sanctions from countries were imposed on Iran, resulting in crippling sanctions that had not been imposed on any country in the history of diplomacy, not even Cuba or North Korea. In addition to these sanctions, billions of dollars were spent from the pockets of the Iranian people due to this project, of which no one is yet aware of the actual figures. All these costs and sanctions could only be justified if the Islamic Republic claimed that the aim of initiating and advancing this project was, firstly, to create a deterrent capability and secondly, to enhance its bargaining power in the international system. Even if we consider these two motivations as the basis for the nuclear project, the Islamic Republic ultimately had to end the nuclear project due to crippling sanctions with the green light from the Supreme Leader, and now it can only claim that the achievement of this exorbitant cost is the right to enrich uranium below 5 percent. On the other hand, if it were not for the Supreme Leader's green light under the title of 'heroic flexibility,' the nuclear negotiations would never have been initiated and would never have reached a conclusion. However, have you noticed that if Ayatollah Khamenei's role in advancing the JCPOA was a key role, from the perspective of the general public, this success is attributed not to Khamenei but to Hassan Rouhani? Perhaps if a survey were conducted on this issue and the question was which of these two (Khamenei or Rouhani) you attribute the JCPOA to, the survey results would be shocking because it is conceivable that the general public would choose Rouhani. The dancing and rejoicing of people who took to the streets after the agreement and chanted 'Thank you, Rouhani' is evidence of this speculation. Now, if in another survey the question is which of all the high-ranking officials you consider directly responsible for the nuclear ambitions, the strong assumption would be that the answer is Khamenei. Thus, while Khamenei is perceived by the public as responsible for the nuclear ambitions, he is not seen as the resolver of the nuclear crisis (if it has been resolved). The public perception attributes this achievement to Rouhani, not Khamenei. Simply put, in the public perception, the architects of nuclear diplomacy are Rouhani and Zarif, while the person held responsible for nuclear ambitions and sanctions is Khamenei. Evidence of this claim is that if Khamenei had been able to portray himself as the architect of the JCPOA, he would never have spoken against the JCPOA or criticized it. He has so far made dozens of criticisms, jabs, and insinuations regarding the JCPOA. Regardless, the overall decision of the system and its head, Ayatollah Khamenei, was to put an end to the nuclear crisis with the West, which was achieved in 2015. The year 2016 marks the beginning of the missile crisis. Judging by what currently fills the media space of the Islamic Republic, it can be claimed that 2016 has arrived while Iran's economy has not yet recovered from the nuclear crisis and is on the brink of plunging into another crisis: the missile crisis. On March 8, 2016, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps showcased its precision-guided ballistic missiles with ranges of 1700 and 2000 kilometers during a missile drill. Although this action was not the only missile test by the IRGC, displaying the IRGC's missile towns beforehand and writing the phrase in Hebrew on the bodies of the IRGC's missiles that 'Israel must be wiped off the map' is undoubtedly considered a provocative act that can trigger a 'missile crisis.' It should not be forgotten that when the Islamic Republic showcases its missile capabilities, it indirectly threatens not only Israel but all Arab countries in the region that currently have tense relations with Tehran. Thus, it becomes clear that the IRGC, as the military arm of the leader, insists on both publicizing its missile drills and directly threatening Israel and indirectly threatening neighboring countries with its missile capabilities. The threat of one UN member against another is as unreasonable as attacking foreign embassies in Tehran. This missile ambition is reminiscent of the nuclear ambition when we recall that senior military and governmental officials uniformly stated that they would not accept nuclear resolutions. However, they ultimately accepted the JCPOA. Now, it is Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, who has said that the IRGC does not 'accept' the UN Security Council resolutions regarding Iran's missile program. This position is exactly similar to the position that the Islamic Republic, led by Ayatollah Khamenei, considered nuclear resolutions as both baseless and ineffective. In the latest developments regarding the nuclear project, it is enough to note that four countries— the USA, UK, France, and Germany— have stated in a letter to the UN that Iran's missile tests violate UN Security Council Resolution 2231. They have called for an appropriate response to this action by Iran. Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary-General, has also expressed concern over Iran's ballistic missile program and stated that world powers must determine whether this program requires further sanctions. The US Treasury Department, in its latest action on April 24, has also added two Iranian companies and two British traders to its sanctions list for assisting Iran's missile program and the IRGC. Thus, the year 1395 began in such a way that it must be considered the year when the missile crisis was initiated, a crisis whose duration is uncertain, but what is certain is that there is no path other than following the ill-fated path of the JCPOA. In this ill-fated path, as Ban Ki-moon has said, 'sanctions' will be a tool to halt this project, just as it was an effective tool to stop the nuclear project. Now the question is, if Ayatollah Khamenei had to show flexibility in the nuclear project, why would he not have to show flexibility in the missile project? Did he not declare the reason for the nuclear flexibility as 'repelling the enemy's harm,' meaning the crippling sanctions? Does the letter from the four global powers to the Secretary-General not imply that these powers are seeking to counter Iran's missile project? Even if the Security Council cannot issue a resolution against Iran's missile program due to Russia's veto, can the European Union and America's allies not impose sanctions such as banking sanctions, SWIFT, oil, petrochemicals, insurance, etc., on Iran once again? Certainly, the Islamic Republic will once again claim that its missile capability is a deterrent capability. This claim may be correct, but threatening another UN member is by no means acceptable. Therefore, it would be very natural for the international community to mobilize against Iran's missile program once again, and of course, more easily than before. On the other hand, the IRGC's action of writing the destruction of Israel on its missiles clearly reveals the internal contradictions within the Islamic Republic's governance. Let us remember that when Zarif congratulated the Jewish New Year (Rosh Hashanah) to Jews around the world on Twitter in September 2013, and when Kristy Pelosi (daughter of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi) sarcastically thanked Zarif by saying, 'Thank you! The New Year will be sweeter with the end of Iran's Holocaust denial,' Zarif responded by writing: 'Iran has 'never' denied the Holocaust; the man [Ahmadinejad] who was thought to have denied the Holocaust is gone.' Zarif seemed to be mistaken. Although Ahmadinejad is gone, the IRGC under the leader's command maintains the same slogan. With this provocative action, the IRGC undermines the Rouhani government and destroys the economic effects of the JCPOA. Testing the tested is a mistake. It is astonishing how a military can, while experiencing a major crisis (greater than the 8-year war), engage itself in another crisis called the missile crisis in less than a year. The year 2016 will be the year of the beginning of Iran's missile crisis, especially since Ayatollah Khamenei has labeled every opposing voice against the missile program as 'treason.' This harsh attack by the leader of the Islamic Republic was enough for his surrounding circles to tune similar instruments one by one. For example, in a statement similar to the nuclear positions, 154 members of parliament deemed questioning the missile development policy as 'ignorance or treason,' just as Sadegh Larijani, the head of the judiciary, made strange statements asking prosecutors across the country to monitor all speeches and movements in this regard and to take 'legal action' against them. Thus, there is clear evidence that Iran's economy has not yet recovered from the JCPOA and is set to enter a new phase of crisis and possibly new sanctions due to Ayatollah Khamenei's policymaking. It was not without reason that Ayatollah Khamenei named the new year as the year of 'resilient economy and action and implementation.' He sees new sanctions on the horizon and thus proposes the model of a resilient economy. If the situation remains as it is, it is not an exaggeration to say that 2016 is the year of the beginning of the missile crisis.