2024: Significant Increase in Casualties from Armed Conflicts Worldwide

A non-profit organization monitoring armed conflicts worldwide has reported that in 2024, the number of casualties from conflicts globally reached over 233,000; this indicates a continuing upward trend in violence and international tensions. According to the report from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which specializes in collecting and analyzing global conflict data, the number of casualties in armed conflicts in 2024 increased by 30% compared to 2023 and has doubled compared to five years ago. The organization states that the war in Ukraine, with 67,000 casualties, was the deadliest conflict of 2024. The Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank also witnessed extensive violence with 35,000 casualties in 2024. These findings suggest that in 2024, one in every eight people worldwide was exposed to armed conflicts. Kleona Rally, a political geography professor at the University of Sussex and founder of ACLED, told the Washington Post that she predicts the increasing trend of conflicts will continue into the next year. She mentioned regions such as Iran, Chad, Ecuador, and Pakistan as areas that may see an increase in violent conflicts next year. The report also notes that following the attacks by the extremist group Hamas on Israel on October 7, 2023, and Israel's response to these attacks, the balance of power in the 'Resistance Axis' significantly changed, leading Iran into its first direct confrontations with Israel and weakening the regional position of the Islamic Republic. The U.S. and the European Union consider Hamas a terrorist organization, but the Islamic Republic has been its main supporter. Among the significant developments recorded in 2024 is the emergence of the Houthis in Yemen as a 'prominent regional power.' This group, previously known for its anti-Israeli positions and closeness to the Iranian government, has managed to increase the accuracy of its attacks using drone and missile technology, even targeting Israeli territory. On the other hand, in Syria, the regime of Bashar al-Assad, despite years of direct support and intervention from the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, quickly collapsed under armed rebel attacks, ending five decades of Assad family rule in the country. Another part of the ACLED report indicates that as missile attacks on Israel become less effective, the deterrent capability of the Islamic Republic of Iran has diminished, and Tehran may turn to developing its nuclear program to strengthen its position in future negotiations with the U.S. Conversely, Israel may seek to enhance its deterrent position by attacking Iran's nuclear infrastructure, targeting Iran-backed militants in Iraq and Syria, and killing Houthi leaders in Yemen. The report concludes that Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election adds an unpredictable factor to the Middle Eastern equation. According to the report, the U.S. may return to a policy of 'maximum pressure' against the Islamic Republic while strengthening local forces in Iraq and gradually reducing its own forces in the region.