A Country on the 'Edge of the Abyss' and Khamenei's Lack of Accountability

Iran's economy is not in a good state from various perspectives. Official statistics from the Islamic Republic and international organizations confirm this reality. For instance, both Iran and China have undemocratic regimes that violate human rights. However, China began its economic reforms simultaneously with the 1979 Iranian revolution. Political reforms required a foreign policy that would enable economic development. Establishing friendly relations with Western governments led by the United States was essential for China's economic transformation. Since 1979, China's average economic growth has been over 9% annually, while Iran's average economic growth has reached nearly 3% annually. The change in China's foreign policy and its impact on its economy can be seen from the trade relations between China and the United States. A closer look at the trade balance between China and the U.S. over the past seven years is very revealing. The trade balance between China and the U.S. during these seven years has been $2.26 trillion in favor of China and to the detriment of the U.S. Khamenei's paradoxical approach and the far-right's foreign policy is aggressive and anti-Western. In this context, not only do they chant Don Quixote-like slogans about the destruction of Israel and deny the Holocaust, but they also set definitive dates for the destruction of Israel. They speak of Iran's strategic power base in the region up to Israel's borders. With this foreign policy, how can foreign investment be attracted? How can the necessary modern technology be imported and localized? Does such a foreign policy even provide a basis for justified economic development? At the same time, Khamenei and his followers claim that the Islamic Revolution and the Islamic Republic have achieved many economic accomplishments and that a significant transformation has taken place, but on the other hand, they make claims to undermine Hassan Rouhani that not only invalidate all these claims but also show that the Islamic Republic has turned Iran into a ruin that is on the brink of destruction. Of course, the state-run/oil/rentier economy is inefficient and creates corruption, and Iran is not in a good state. According to the 2015 Heritage Foundation report on the index of economic freedom, Iran ranks 171 out of 178 countries worldwide. In the 2017 Heritage Foundation report, Iran ranked 155 out of 180 countries surveyed. This means it improved by 16 ranks and shifted from the group of closed (repressed) economies to the group of mostly unfree economies. However, the narrative of the far-right conservatives regarding the current state of the country, which is the result of the Islamic Revolution, the Islamic Republic's governance, Ayatollah Khomeini's leadership, and Ayatollah Khamenei's 28-year leadership, deserves considerable attention. Previously, we explained the IRGC's goal of taking over the executive branch in the article 'The IRGC and Basij's Open Project to Capture the Presidency in 96'. After the vote counting phase of the second 'Jemna' assembly, the ten final candidates of this group received the following votes: 1. Ebrahim Raisi 2147 votes. 2. Alireza Zakani 1546 votes. 3. Badzarpas 1404 votes. 4. Ghalibaf 1373 votes. 5. Fattah 994 votes. 6. Haji Babaei 991 votes. 7. Nikzad 947 votes. 8. Zargami 930 votes. 9. Rostam Qasemi 683 votes. 10. Mohsen Rezaei 660 votes. Now, look at the narrative of the military forces of Khamenei's revolutionary forces and other far-right conservatives regarding the country's situation: Sudan's Lieutenant General Mohsen Rezaei wrote in a message to 'Jemna' that 'the continuation of factional and personal governments, especially Mr. Rouhani, will turn Iran into the second Sudan.' The tsunami of unemployment and the longest recession in history. Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf said on April 14, 96: 'Nearly 10 million people in our country live in absolute poverty; if we say that the income of 60% of our people is below the minimum income set by the government, we are not exaggerating... The greater danger is that the economic crisis has brought serious social damage, which manifests itself in various forms such as divorce, addiction, and youth unemployment.' General Ghalibaf said on April 16, 96: 'The economic and social situation of the country is in a critical condition, and there is no doubt that the current situation is the result of mismanagement and the inefficiency of the current government... I believe that all those who seek to save the country from economic and social crises must unite and work towards achieving the goal of resolving the macro-management crisis of the country, efficiency, and changing the current government.' Ghalibaf said on April 20, 96: 'The unemployment problem cannot be resolved with the methods pursued so far... The demand for jobs among our youth is definitely a big tsunami in the country that, if we do not address it, this tsunami will take the government with it. We must be accountable to the youth, while the unemployment rate is reported to be 10-12%, but the unemployment rate among educated youth is over 38%, and we see this problem in families. We are experiencing the longest recession in the country, this historical record is long, and we do not remember a recession lasting this long in the country.' The brain-dead economy, bankrupt banks, and pervasive corruption. General Alireza Zakani said on April 15, 96: '57% of the barriers to achieving 8% economic growth are created by the structure of banks. Most banks have gone bankrupt, which they want to keep confidential until after the elections... The liquidity of 470 trillion tomans in the country has risen to 1300 trillion tomans during the four years of the eleventh government... Why do they not tell the people what corruption is entrenched in this system? Why is there no action taken? This goes back to the same Westernized managers who prioritize their own interests... A manager in the Islamic Republic now has thousands of billions of money... People who had the highest level of welfare until decades ago. The city that had the first airports, hospitals, and sports fields, we went and saw what poverty has done to its people... This is the future of Iran with the continuation of the current management trend... In a situation where the future of the country depends on petrochemical products, we see that 51% of the petrochemical industry has been sold to specific individuals for 130 billion tomans, while the cost of just the fuel pipes for the government was 8500 billion tomans! The Pakak company has been transferred for 110 billion tomans while a single court case is equivalent to 3.7 billion euros. Why does the government not pursue this horrific plunder? A potential petrochemical opportunity of 1000 billion dollars that requires effort and skill is being wasted.' Zakani, after registering on April 25, said: 'The country is today on the brink of economic crisis, and the most important factor is the recession as the worst symptom of it. Recession is like brain death, and inflation is like a high fever, and the current government has caused the economy to suffer brain death instead of treating the fever.' The Central Bank on April 27 denied Zakani's claim about the bankruptcy of banks and announced that if he raises this unsubstantiated claim again, he will be sued. 20 million poor, 1700 corruption choke points, and a country on the edge of the abyss. Rostam Qasemi, former commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya headquarters, said on April 14: 'We have 20 million poor people in the country, and according to this planning, 15 million poor people can be empowered, and 5 million must be covered. 1700 choke points of corruption have been identified, and the issue of smuggling can be somewhat resolved with pressure, and if we cannot use technology for it, we will face problems.' 'Today the country is economically on the edge of the abyss.' Annually, 15 to 25 billion dollars of smuggling. Hamid Reza Haji Babaei, Ahmadinejad's Minister of Education, said on April 22: 'We have about 15 billion to 25 billion dollars of smuggling goods entering the country. It is impossible for this much smuggling to occur without the involvement of powerful individuals, while these powerful individuals have strategies in place for smuggling.' Most smuggling is carried out by 'our own smuggling brothers' - the IRGC - who no one can confront. Haji Babaei also said on April 23: 'People only have enough money to buy food items and have no money for housing, shoes, clothes, and housing.' The disaster of 8 million unemployed. Mojtaba Zolnoor, former deputy representative of the Supreme Leader in the IRGC and current member of parliament, said on April 23: 'Eight million unemployed in the country means disaster, meaning eight million family disputes and daily depression in families, so the country cannot be managed with niceties... While many people struggle with their daily living expenses, the government spends nearly one-seventh of the country's budget on buying airplanes.' Recession and unemployment are rampant. Ayatollah Mohsen Mojtahed Shabestari, representative of the Supreme Leader in East Azerbaijan, said in his Friday sermon on April 18: 'People are suffering from unprecedented unemployment, recession, inflation, and economic problems... In a situation where economic recession and unemployment are rampant in the country, the only solution to get out of this situation is to pay attention to national production, which will also create job opportunities in the country... If there is revolutionary and efficient management, we will never have an economic deadlock.' The real economic situation in Iran and the necessity of Khamenei's accountability. If the image that far-right conservatives portray is true, Ayatollah Khamenei is the first person who should be held accountable for the state of his long tenure. The reality is that Iran's economic situation has had many ups and downs. In the first decade of the revolution, due to the eight-year war, Iran's average economic growth was negative one percent. However, during Ayatollah Khamenei's leadership, four presidents had different achievements. For example, look at economic growth: The eight-year period of Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-1996): 5.16%. The eight-year period of Mohammad Khatami (1997-2004): 4.33%. The eight-year period of Ahmadinejad (2005-2012): 3.23%. It should not be forgotten that the foreign exchange revenues during the presidencies of these individuals were very different. The total oil export revenue during Hashemi Rafsanjani's presidency was 123 billion and 60 million dollars. The total oil revenue during Mohammad Khatami's presidency was 206 billion and 27 million dollars. Ahmadinejad received the executive branch in the best condition and with the highest foreign exchange revenue in history of 795 billion dollars (639 billion dollars from oil exports and 156 billion dollars from non-oil exports), delivering the country with 34.7% inflation and negative economic growth of 6.6%. The average annual economic growth during Hassan Rouhani's presidency was about 2%. While the oil revenues during this period were as follows: 2013: 40 billion dollars, 2014: 64 billion dollars, 2015: 18 billion dollars, and 2016: 41 billion dollars - a total of 163 billion dollars - meaning approximately 40 billion dollars per year. Compare this revenue with Ahmadinejad's oil revenues. Hassan Rouhani reduced the inflation rate of 34.7% in 92 to 15.6%, 11.9%, and 9% in 93, 94, and 95 respectively. Critique of the claim of economic recession. According to the common definition, if an economy has negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters, it has entered a recession. The Islamic Revolution and the Islamic Republic have failed to respond to the rightful demands of the people. If we did not achieve democracy and human rights, at the very least, we should have benefited from economic development. Economic development did not occur because events such as the revolution, the suppressions of the 60s, the chain murders, the suppression of the Green Movement, etc., caused a severe decline in 'social capital' - and its essence 'trust'. The claims of far-right conservatives and IRGC commanders regarding the economic situation in Iran during Hassan Rouhani's presidency contradict reports from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Ahmadinejad's negative economic growth of 6.6% in the final year turned into positive economic growth of about 8% in the year 1395. The Central Bank also reported the unemployment rate to be about 12%. Is this economic recession? According to the International Monetary Fund report in September 2016, 11 countries are in recession, and Iran is not among them. Six countries are likely to enter economic recession, and Iran is not among them either. The three countries, the U.S., Iran, and Kuwait, are not in recession. The World Bank estimated Iran's economic growth in 2017 to be 5.2%. Iran must achieve a stable economic growth of 8% for the situation to change. However, this reasonable expectation is miles apart from the false claims of far-right conservatives. Iran's misery index. This index was introduced in the 1960s by Arthur Okun. According to this index, the misery index of a country is derived from the sum of its annual inflation rate and its unemployment rate. Currently, this index is calculated based on the sum of the unemployment rate, inflation rate, and loan interest rates minus the percentage change in per capita GDP. As the number of this index increases, the level of misery in the concerned country rises. In the report dated January 17, 2017, by the Cato Institute titled 'Misery Index 2016', which examined the situation of 59 countries, Venezuela with a figure of 573.4 is the most miserable and saddest country in the world. Following it, Argentina (83.8), Brazil (75), South Africa (44.9), Egypt (43.9), Ukraine (36), Azerbaijan (35.9), and Turkey (30.7) ranked second to eighth respectively. Iran, with 29.3, ranks ninth. According to the Cato Institute, the main factor increasing Iran's misery index is the interest rate on loans. At the same time, Iran has improved two places compared to 2015.