A Newspaper's Account of 'Statistical Gaps' in Iran's Foreign Trade; Economy Trapped in Sanctions

An economic newspaper published in Tehran has revealed a significant statistical gap by comparing the export and import statistics of Iran's customs with some trading partners, stating that Iran's economy is trapped in a 'sanction and multi-currency trap.' The newspaper 'Donya-e-Eqtesad' published this report on Saturday, March 3, 2024, indicating that an examination of the figures reported by Iran and China in 2023 shows a discrepancy of at least $14 billion. The report states that two factors specific to Iran, namely sanctions and multi-currency exchange rates, play a fundamental role in this phenomenon. Accordingly, the author emphasizes that sanctions have caused most of Iran's trade to occur in a two-stage manner; meaning that at least one third country is involved in Iran's imports and exports. Currency policies are also cited as the second factor exacerbating this problem. The 'Donya-e-Eqtesad' report criticizes the Central Bank's approach, noting that currency commitment has led to underreporting in exports and that currency allocation equations have resulted in overreporting in imports. The newspaper emphasizes that the value of exports for the first 11 months of 2023 in Iran is nearly $7.7 billion higher than the figures reported by the Chinese side for the entire year of 2023. Additionally, on the import side from China, Iran's 11-month statistics exceed the customs figures from China for the entire year of 2023 by $6.3 billion. The report also mentions trade between Iran and Britain, emphasizing that the total value of goods exported from Iran to Britain is calculated at £17 million, while imports from this country amount to £73 million. Meanwhile, according to statistics from the first half of this year, Iran imported $499 million worth of goods from the UK (one of the four regions of Britain). In fact, the figure that Iran calculated for six months is more than five times the figure reported by Britain for the entire year. Experts believe that regardless of the issue of sanctions and their damages, the two-stage trade with countries and the involvement of a third person or country for exchanges impose significant costs on Iran's economy. The 'Donya-e-Eqtesad' newspaper also wrote in its March 8 issue that sanctions have led to an 'increase in risk and uncertainty' in Iran's economy; the increase in risk is one of the most important factors that has reduced the willingness to invest in the production sector in Iran, leading many individuals to prefer speculation and brokerage over production. Abbas Arghoon, a member of the Chamber of Commerce, has stated that sanctions have caused us to import goods at high prices and export them at low prices. The Islamic Republic of Iran has been under sanctions for years due to its suspicious nuclear program, support for terrorism, and widespread human rights violations by the United Nations, the United States, the European Union, and some other countries. In addition to sanctions, Iran's inclusion on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist has made financial relations with Iran face high risks, which has a direct impact on Iran's economy. The US dollar increased by 900 tomans in one day, entering the 59,000 tomans channel. The US sanctioned several companies in Turkey and Lebanon due to their connections with Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guard. Foreign trade is on a downward path; container exports to Qatar have decreased by 70%. A noteworthy warning in the oil industry; we will be importing products from Iraq.