A Poll: Netanyahu Will Have an Easy Victory in Israel's Parliamentary Elections

The first poll after the announcement of early parliamentary elections in Israel shows that Benjamin Netanyahu will have an easy victory and will form the next government. Netanyahu's current government decided to dissolve the current Knesset and call for early elections on December 24 due to opposition from an opposition party regarding a new draft law for military exemption for religious Jews. After Netanyahu and the leaders of allied parties quickly agreed to advance the elections, the Knesset set Tuesday, April 9, 2019, as the election date. According to the first poll conducted at the request of the Maariv newspaper, in the upcoming elections, the Likud party will secure 30 seats, equal to its seats in the dissolved Knesset, along with right-wing parties, totaling 63 seats out of 120 in the Knesset. The continued dominance of the right-wing in the next Knesset means that Netanyahu will remain the strongest politician to form the next government. According to Maariv, based on a telephone poll of 502 Israelis, with a margin of error of more than four percent, if former general Benny Gantz, the former chief of staff, can establish a party, it will become the second party in the next Knesset with 16 seats. However, Israeli media report that the three-and-a-half-month opportunity until the elections has deprived this former military leader of the chance to gather significant funds and form a powerful party, and he has not yet officially declared his intentions. The Yesh Atid party led by Yair Lapid has reached 12 seats in the new poll, while Lapid still claims he will form the next government. According to Wynet, Lapid on Tuesday asked Menachem Mendelblit, the Israeli attorney general, to announce whether he intends to file an indictment against Benjamin Netanyahu in the corruption investigations against him. Lapid states that the elections are taking place under the shadow of four corruption cases against Netanyahu, and the public must know the truth. The Israeli police had recommended that the attorney general file an indictment against the prime minister; the attorney general has stated that he will pursue these cases regardless of the elections. Some Likud politicians consider filing an indictment against Netanyahu during the elections to be inappropriate but simultaneously say that even with an indictment, Netanyahu can still participate in the competition. If an indictment is issued against Netanyahu, it is likely that Gideon Sa'ar, a politician recently returned to Likud, will be the most prominent figure of this party. Meanwhile, Avi Gabbay, the leader of the Labor Party, claimed on Monday night that this election is a competition between him and Netanyahu; this claim does not align with the significant decline in his party's seats in the polls. Tzipi Livni, the former foreign minister, could slightly strengthen the weak position of the Zionist Union (including the Labor Party) if she participates in the elections instead of Avi Gabbay, but Gabbay opposes handing over the leadership of the union to Livni. On the other hand, Moshe Ya'alon, a general and former defense minister, announced on Tuesday the formation of a new party and his competition with Benjamin Netanyahu for political leadership of the country; however, Ya'alon's new party will not have the capacity to compete with Likud, of which he was previously a member. Moshe Kahlon, the current finance minister and leader of the Kulanu party, and Naftali Bennett, the current education minister and leader of the right-wing Jewish Home party, also consider themselves worthy of the premiership, but the not-so-strong position of their parties in public opinion keeps their aspirations at the level of a dream for now. According to the Maariv poll, in the upcoming elections, the 'Israel Beiteinu' party led by Avigdor Lieberman, the former defense minister, will secure only five seats, the left-wing 'Meretz' party six seats, each of the Jewish religious parties five to six seats, and a young female politician named Orly Levy, who has formed a new social party, will have six seats. This poll indicates that 21% of Arab citizens of Israel, if they maintain their previous alliance, will have 13 seats in the next Knesset, but signs of disagreement among the figures of the Arab alliance have emerged, and they may again enter the election campaign as small parties rather than a joint list. Netanyahu's current government will be considered a transitional government starting Wednesday, January 1, when the current Knesset is officially dissolved.