A Significant One-Day Visit by Rouhani to Oman and Kuwait: Mapping Fears and Hopes

Hassan Rouhani's one-day trip (February 15, 2017) to Oman and Kuwait carries many untold stories. This trip took place 21 days after the unexpected short visit of the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister to Iran (January 25), but it cannot be considered a response to the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister's visit since, according to protocol, the response to a foreign minister's visit is given by another foreign minister, not the president. Therefore, Rouhani's meeting was not a response to the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister's visit but rather a reflection of the viewpoints that the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister carried to Iran on behalf of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). In other words, Iranian officials assessed that they needed to reflect Tehran's views to the GCC at a high level and in a short time, and given the indescribable importance of the 'unrevealed topics,' it was decided that the President of Iran himself should convey Tehran's message. Although Tehran's response was supposed to be directed to Kuwait (the rotating presidency of the GCC), it was addressed to all members of the GCC. Thus, Rouhani preferred to start the trip from Oman to utilize the good traditional relations between Iran and the Sultanate of Oman, which has the least tense relations with the Islamic Republic, to have Oman support Tehran's views in the GCC. In addition to the good Iran-Oman relations, Sultan Qaboos has always acted as a trusted intermediary in the tense relations between Tehran and other countries, including the United States, in the years following the revolution. According to credible statements, the key to the secret nuclear negotiations between Iran and the U.S. during the Obama administration was facilitated by Muscat, albeit secretly. For this reason, Rouhani preferred to first reflect Tehran's viewpoints to Sultan Qaboos using Muscat's potential to gain the GCC's support, including from Saudi Arabia. From this, it can be inferred that Tehran's response to the GCC was a sensitive topic or topics that both sides have maintained silence about until now. But what could these unrevealed topics be? What message did the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister carry for Tehran? The GCC's message and its contexts: 1) Contexts: The dark clouds now cast shadows not only over Tehran-Riyadh relations, where these two heavyweight regional powers are in political estrangement and proxy wars with each other, but also over all of Iran's relations with the GCC and beyond that, over the entire Arab countries. It should not be forgotten that the Islamic Republic has severed political relations with five Arab countries (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Sudan, and Djibouti). Additionally, Tehran's diplomatic relations with some other Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates, have been downgraded to the level of chargé d'affaires. 2) The GCC's message to Tehran was conveyed by the Foreign Minister after a government came to power in the U.S. that imposed some sanctions on Iran in its first month and assured Israel and Saudi Arabia of countering the threats posed by the Islamic Republic. The prevailing view among observers is that Tehran's good times with Obama are over, and Trump will take tough actions against Tehran. These actions could vary from a regime change program in Iran to its containment. 3) The Kuwaiti Foreign Minister's visit to Iran occurred just one day after the very important opening of NATO's first command office in Kuwait. Thus, Kuwait and the regional countries, in addition to the support of major countries, are now officially under NATO's oversight, which gives great encouragement to the GCC. 4) Furthermore, the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister's visit to Tehran came after British Prime Minister Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron attended the GCC summit for the first time. May, in encouraging remarks in favor of the council against what she termed the threat of the Islamic Republic, stated: 'I am fully aware of the danger that Iran poses to the Middle East and the region. Britain is fully committed to strategic cooperation with the GCC to confront the threat from Iran... We must work together to counter Iran's aggressive actions in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, and the Gulf countries.' She went so far as to say, 'The security of the Gulf countries is our security.' 5) In an unprecedented move, a meeting was recently held between the foreign ministers of Turkey and the GCC on October 14, 2016, with the main goal of preparing for Erdogan's visit to the Arab Gulf countries. In a statement issued after this meeting, participants called for a political power transfer in Syria (i.e., the ousting of Assad from power) and demanded immediate action from the Security Council and the international community to save Syria. The Turkish Foreign Minister also urged Iran, in the presence of his Saudi counterpart, to abandon 'sectarianism' and play a constructive role in the region without interfering in the affairs of other countries. B) The GCC's message: Thus, it can be seen that the GCC's message was conveyed to Tehran after the council established new relations with NATO, France, Britain, Turkey, and to some extent, the new U.S. administration. But what could the essence of the message be? Nothing has leaked from the content of the message conveyed by the GCC and the response given by Rouhani. However, it can be speculated that the message contains both fears and hopes. The fear is that relations between Iran and the regional countries could worsen beyond their current state, and the hope is that there could be a comprehensive revision in the relations on both sides of the Persian Gulf. Riyadh's condition is that Tehran must cease its support for the Houthis, while Iran's condition is that Saudi Arabia must abandon the ousting of Assad. The GCC now sees itself in a position to establish close relations with the White House to exert pressure on Tehran. Such an action could return Iran's fragile economy to the pre-JCPOA state. The Arab coalition, now led by Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, could eventually join forces with the U.S. The one-day trip by Rouhani to Oman and Kuwait is considered significant. In the post-JCPOA atmosphere, where Trump intends to dismantle it, the GCC may believe that it can extract good concessions from Tehran to prevent what they see as Iran's Shiite hegemony. Rouhani had also chosen the slogan of 'constructive engagement' as the cornerstone of his foreign policy from the beginning. Therefore, in these early months of the Trump administration, the council members have begun to assess Tehran's flexibility, a goal initiated by the Kuwaiti Foreign Minister's visit and responded to by Rouhani's trip. Although nothing has leaked from the negotiations, it is clear that these two trips could be seen as the seed for future regional developments.