A Strategic Assessment of the Likelihood of an Israeli Attack on Iranian Territory

In a week when the Israeli Security Studies Institute assessed the regional situation in 2019, it did not rule out that Israel, continuing its numerous attacks on 'Iranian targets' in Syria, might also attack Iranian territory, leading to a simultaneous conflict involving Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria against Israel. Regional and Israeli media reported that the U.S. has also warned Iraq that it will no longer prevent Israel from attacking Iranian-aligned armed groups in Iraq. Iraqi media initially reported on January 16, citing a 'political source' from their country, that Mike Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State, during his recent trip to Baghdad, told Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi that the U.S. could no longer resist Israel's request to attack the bases of Iraqi militias allied with Iran in Iraq. The Arabic-language RT television also reported on January 17, which was echoed in Israeli media, citing an interview with an Iraqi official that the U.S. Secretary of State told the Iraqi Prime Minister that if Israel bombed Shiite forces aligned with Iran in Iraq, 'Washington would not intervene.' Reuters had reported in the summer that Iran had transferred missiles to Iraq that were in the hands of its allied Shiite militias and also intended to provide missile production technology to these groups and establish a missile production facility in Iraq. At that time, Iran firmly rejected Reuters' report, but some senior Israeli officials have recently reiterated the possibility of their country attacking Iranian interests in Iraq, continuing the attacks on 'Iranian interests' in Syria, with the aim of pushing Iran away from Israel's periphery. The likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iraq became more serious when Tamir Hayman, head of the Israeli military intelligence, said on the last day of 2018 at an economic magazine conference in Tel Aviv, 'The increased military presence of Iran in Iraq means that Tehran may use Iraq as a base for future attacks on Israel.' According to this Israeli commander, 'Iraq is under the increasing influence of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and the rulers in Tehran will likely pursue the goal they had in Syria to create a base for getting closer to Israel from Iraq.' According to the English section of the Times of Israel, Tamir Hayman added at that conference that the likelihood of military conflict with Hezbollah and Hamas in 2019 is low, and these organizations also do not see their interests in creating new conflict, but 'miscalculations' could lead to a multi-front war involving these organizations as well. Meanwhile, the Israeli Security Studies Institute, headed by retired General Amos Yadlin, former head of the military intelligence, presented its assessment book of the regional security outlook focusing on Israeli interests in 2019 to Reuven Rivlin, the President of Israel, on January 16. The presentation of this book by an institute that includes a collection of former security and military officials among its experts was to emphasize the importance of this strategic assessment. This outlook document identifies Hezbollah, the Iranian-aligned organization in Lebanon, Iranian military movements in Syria, military conflict with Hamas in Gaza, and the possibility of Iran violating nuclear commitments as major threats facing Israel in 2019, but it also studies Israel's situation in other parts of the world, especially against powers like the U.S., China, and Russia. The central assessment of this book is based on the premise that the greatest threat to Israel in the coming months is the occurrence of war on Israel's northern border with Iran and Hezbollah, as well as in Syria, particularly on Israel's northern front. This Israeli study center, despite the statements of the Prime Minister regarding the successful efforts of Israel that 'as a result, the number of precision rockets of Hezbollah is not more than a few dozen,' has written that the project to refine Hezbollah's rockets continues, and a direct Israeli attack on Lebanon in 2019 alongside attacks on Hezbollah interests is among the discussed possibilities. This assessment does not rule out that despite Israel's recent successes in striking 'Iranian targets' in Syria, the country 'may be forced' to directly attack Iran in 2019 to defend its interests and push the dangers of Iran in Syria further away. It seems that the talk is about a potential attack on centers in Iran that send weapons and forces to Syria. This report also states that Iran's military presence in Syria is now an established fact. This contradicts the statements of the Prime Minister and official officials of this country who claim to have caused serious losses to Iran in Syria. This security outlook also emphasizes that the U.S. has economically and diplomatically pressured Iran, but is still not ready for military confrontation with Iran, and the decision of Donald Trump, the U.S. President, in the last days of 2018 to withdraw American troops from Syria showed that Washington is distancing itself from military confrontation and its heavy costs in the region. Meanwhile, the institute headed by General Yadlin emphasizes in its assessment that Israel should continue to cooperate with the U.S. and share information with it for joint deterrent actions against Iran so that if Iran especially violates its commitments under the JCPOA, alongside a diplomatic roadmap, military plans for confronting Iran are ready. At the same time, this assessment identifies the most immediate threat to Israel in the next 12 months as military conflict with Iranian-aligned militias in Gaza and believes that the end of Mahmoud Abbas's leadership in the West Bank and the failure of the American peace plan known as the 'Deal of the Century' will also worsen the situation in the West Bank. The security outlook book for Israel in 2019 regarding the 'strong and stable relations between Israel and the U.S.' also states that surprising decisions by Donald Trump, such as the recent sudden decision to withdraw his troops from Syria, although strategically unimportant for Israel, strengthen America's enemies. On the other hand, this strategic assessment emphasizes that the close relations between Israel and China have made the U.S. sensitive to the transfer of Israeli technology to China and the expansion of Chinese presence and investment in Israel. The Israeli security institute advises its government not to put all its eggs in the basket of Republicans and evangelical Christians in relation to the U.S. and to resume dialogue with Democrats and expand interactions with reformist and Democratic Jews in America because 'American Jews are a key component in ensuring Israel's security.'