Achievements and Failures of the Diplomatic 'Submissive' Government of Ebrahim Raisi

About three years ago, when Ebrahim Raisi won one of the least competitive elections in the history of the Islamic Republic, one of the main challenges facing his government was the issue of reviving the JCPOA and returning to the nuclear agreement; an agreement that had previously progressed to the brink of revival during Hassan Rouhani's presidency but was, according to Rouhani, hindered by internal government opposition. In addition to the JCPOA and the fruitless negotiations by the Foreign Ministry on this matter, how has Ebrahim Raisi's government performed in foreign policy over the past three years, and what achievements and failures have occurred in the realm of diplomacy? This report reviews the most significant foreign policy events during the unfinished term of Ebrahim Raisi and his Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. The Unsuccessful JCPOA The main file facing the thirteenth government of the Islamic Republic was the issue of reviving Iran's nuclear agreement with global powers; an event that was initiated after the Biden administration took office in the U.S. and expressed Washington's willingness to return to the JCPOA, with extensive negotiations having taken place during Mohammad Javad Zarif's tenure in the previous government. However, Ebrahim Raisi, during his election campaign, declared his foreign policy slogan as "not tying people's livelihoods to sanctions" and claimed he would work to improve Iran's economy without emphasizing the issue of nuclear negotiations. Perhaps from this approach, it could be inferred that the issue of reviving the JCPOA was not a priority in Raisi's foreign policy. Despite Ali Bagheri Kani, the then Deputy Foreign Minister, being responsible for pursuing this file and numerous negotiations taking place in Vienna, Doha, Tehran, Muscat, and other parts of the world between him and European diplomats directly and indirectly with U.S. representatives, ultimately, after all these rounds of discussions, Raisi's government ended its term with the Iranian nuclear file having made no progress compared to summer 2021; not only had international sanctions not been lifted, but the policies of the Islamic Republic during this period imposed greater global restrictions on Iran. In May 2023, the situation of Iran on the fifth anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA was marked by suspension with the United States. During Ebrahim Raisi's presidency, there were naturally no official relations between Iran and the U.S., but at several points in time, events occurred between the two sides that were conducted through informal dialogues. The release of Iran's blocked funds in South Korea last summer was one of these events that was finally realized after several years of disputes. During the same period, there were several reports about an unwritten agreement between Iran and the United States to reduce tensions between the two sides; an understanding that included clauses such as prisoner exchanges between the two sides, U.S. leniency on the implementation of oil sanctions against Iran, limited progress in Iran's nuclear program, and Tehran's commitment to refrain from attacks by proxy forces affiliated with the Islamic Republic against American targets in the region. Also, during the Gaza war, there were repeated exchanges of messages between the two sides aimed at controlling tensions and preventing them from escalating into a full-scale war in the region. Reconciliation with Saudi Arabia Reconciliation with Saudi Arabia has likely been the biggest achievement of the Islamic Republic's foreign policy in the past three years; an event for which the responsibility was not with the Foreign Ministry and Ebrahim Raisi's government but with the Supreme National Security Council and Ali Shamkhani. Hamidreza Azizi, a researcher at the German Science and Politics Foundation, told Radio Farda: "Although Raisi's government officials try to credit the agreement with Saudi Arabia to themselves, the reality is that this event was a decision of the ruling establishment, and efforts were made for this purpose during Hassan Rouhani's government as well, and the same individuals close to the thirteenth government obstructed the realization of such an event." In addition to Saudi Arabia, after that agreement with Riyadh, Iran reduced its tensions with other Arab countries as well, and in an approach that seems aimed at reducing threats emanating from Iran or its proxy groups from Arab capitals, relations between the parties were pursued in a less hostile manner. However, despite the reconciliation, the path to building trust and good relations is long, and according to some observers, achieving normal and cordial relations, especially with the unbalanced internal and external policies of the Islamic Republic, still faces many difficulties. Iran and Saudi Arabia; from the trouble of Soleimani's photo to the hotel establishment Joining BRICS and Shanghai Among other significant events during Ebrahim Raisi's presidency was Iran's accession to the Shanghai Pact and the BRICS group. Both events occurred in line with the Islamic Republic's increasing orientation towards the East, positioning Tehran more than ever within the framework defined by economic southern countries and, more importantly, China. Hamidreza Azizi stated to Radio Farda: "During Raisi's government, the East-oriented policy and the look-to-the-East strategy were established as a strategy in Iran's foreign policy. It should be noted that the 'look to the East' policy had been heard in the rhetoric of Islamic Republic officials for many years and was first discussed during Hashemi Rafsanjani's government, and even during Hassan Rouhani's government, this issue was pursued seriously in the last two years after Donald Trump's withdrawal from the JCPOA. However, the significant difference in Ebrahim Raisi's government was that the look-to-the-East policy was considered a definitive and final alternative to relations with the West, whereas in previous periods, it was viewed as a complement and balancing factor in relation to the West, which has never been in a favorable position during the Islamic Republic's history." Closer ties with Russia and support for Putin's war machine Another notable event in the foreign and defense policy of the Islamic Republic during Ebrahim Raisi's presidency was Iran's participation in supplying weapons to the Russian army, especially drones used in Russia's attacks on Ukrainian cities. During this time, Raisi visited Russia twice in the winter and met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. Tehran's military support for Russia has had widespread repercussions for Iran, leading to new sanctions imposed by the United States and European countries against the Islamic Republic. Although government officials claimed that they were not participating in the war between Russia and Ukraine, Kyiv repeatedly published pieces of the wreckage of Iranian Shahed drones shot down in Russia's attacks on Ukrainian cities. In November 2023, factors for the development and outlook of cooperation between Russia and Iran were examined in a study. Free fall in relations with the West Even before Ebrahim Raisi took office, it could be predicted that relations between Iran and Western countries, especially Europe, would face challenges, but the level and intensity of tensions in recent years between Tehran and European capitals have increased in an unprecedented manner. In the early months, European countries emphasized the need to pursue dialogues with Tehran regarding the nuclear program and the revival of the 2015 agreement, which led to various negotiations between Iranian and European delegations in different cities in Europe, Iran, and even the region. However, gradually those meetings were forgotten, and internal developments in Iran and the Islamic Republic's approaches intensified the differences between the parties. Iran's support for Russia in the war against Ukraine and the widespread protests during the "Women, Life, Freedom" movement were among the most significant turning points that led to a further divergence between Iran and European countries, resulting in new sanctions imposed by the European Union against Iran. Over the past three years, Ebrahim Raisi has not traveled to a single European country, which can also be considered another indicator of the quality of the Islamic Republic's foreign relations with the West in recent years. Only one step away from full-scale war with Israel Among the most significant dangers and challenges for Iran in recent years, the Islamic Republic's policies regarding Israel can be noted; a trend that brought the two sides only one step away from igniting a full-scale war in the region. After the attack attributed to Israel on the Islamic Republic's consulate building in Damascus, Iran made an unprecedented decision to carry out extensive missile and drone attacks directly on Israeli territory; an operation that, thanks to the country's missile defense system and the assistance of the United States and other Israeli allies, ended without significant casualties or damage. However, in the days before and after that attack, many in the region and the world were concerned that the first direct military confrontation between Iran and Israel could escalate into a full-scale war in the region. The attack on Israel; when deterrence turns against itself The foreign policy of Khamenei's government or Raisi's government? After the leak of a voice file from Javad Zarif, in which he spoke with Saeed Leilaz about the sidelining of the Foreign Ministry, Ali Khamenei emphasized in a public speech that the Foreign Ministry is merely an executive body in foreign policy, and in his view, not only in Iran but in other parts of the world, diplomacy is determined by higher institutions. Although during Rouhani's government, many believed that the cabinet and especially the Foreign Ministry had limited powers and that institutions under Khamenei's supervision, which sometimes took on responsibilities beyond the diplomatic apparatus, were responsible for pursuing foreign files, the sidelining of the Foreign Ministry in Ebrahim Raisi's government reached an unprecedented level. In the most important regional files and beyond, individuals who are either directly appointed by the Supreme Leader or from the subgroups of Khamenei's institutions have pursued and executed diplomatic issues in recent years. Moreover, more parallel institutions have been exempted from coordinating their foreign affairs with the Foreign Ministry by the approval of the Islamic Consultative Assembly in recent years. Hamidreza Azizi commented on the overall approach to foreign policy in Ebrahim Raisi's government: "I believe we must distinguish between the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic during Ebrahim Raisi and the foreign policy of Ebrahim Raisi's government. What we have witnessed in the past three years has been the former; for this reason, the initiatives that, for example, bore fruit during this period or the efforts that were fruitless were all due to the approaches, orientations, and overall strategies of the Islamic Republic system rather than the result of a specific approach in Raisi's government. In other words, contrary to what government officials refer to as a policy of rapprochement with neighbors and similar matters, it should be accepted that Raisi's government lacked a strategy not only in regional foreign policy but even in overall foreign policy." Despite the sidelining of the Foreign Ministry and the diplomatic apparatus in recent years, as Ebrahim Raisi has repeatedly emphasized the need to follow the Supreme Leader, his government also had no interest or incentive to try to revive this position. Raisi preferred that his government continue as a submissive and low-maintenance government to avoid a fate similar to that of previous Iranian presidents at the end of his presidency, and perhaps even hoped to sit on the leadership chair; although ultimately he did not even reach the end of his first term, let alone be remembered as a rebellious president against Ali Khamenei.