After Saddam and Now Assad, Can the Ba'ath Party Revive Again?

With the downfall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, the Ba'ath Party, which was the ruling party, suspended its activities. The suspension of the Ba'ath Party in Syria occurred 20 years after the ban on the Ba'ath Party in Iraq. What records do these two parties have, and is it possible for them to return to the political arena of the Arab world in the future? The Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party was officially founded on April 7, 1947, nearly 80 years ago by figures like Michel Aflaq, a Syrian Christian in Damascus, initially aiming to combine socialism and Arab nationalism. Although the party gave Islam a superior position, it intended to establish a secular state that would unite all segments of the Arab nation formed from various religions and beliefs. However, the Ba'ath parties in both Syria and Iraq effectively became minority parties; in predominantly Shia Iraq, it became a Sunni party, and in predominantly Sunni Syria, it became an Alawite Shia party. For this reason, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, founded in 1935 in Aleppo, initially fought against the Ba'ath Party for religious reasons and later for political reasons, becoming one of the main internal opponents of Hafez al-Assad from the early 1970s. According to Arab historians, the Ba'ath Party failed to realize its slogan of 'Unity, Freedom, and Socialism'; unity and freedom turned into the repression of the majority of the people in Iraq and Syria under dictatorial regimes, and socialism was reduced to disastrous nationalizations. Habib Hosseini-Fard, a political analyst based in Germany, tells Radio Farda that the Ba'ath Party in Syria emerged from an idea based on 'Arab unity' and was formed in a post-colonial context and after World War II. He adds that this party aimed to elevate the status of Arab countries from 'misery and backwardness' with a view toward the former Soviet Union. The 1963 coup in Syria, which the previous Syrian government referred to as the March 8 Revolution, was a military coup that led to the dominance of the Ba'ath Party in Syria. In Iraq, the Ba'ath Party branch was established in 1951. Members of the Ba'ath Party in Iraq faced persecution in 1963 following the assassination of General Abdul Karim Qasim, but eventually, in 1968, the party seized power through a military coup. With the rise of the Ba'ath Party in Iraq, not only did severe political repression begin, but the cultural atmosphere also changed. During this period, especially during Saddam Hussein's rule, literature and art in Iraq became tools for government propaganda. Militarily, both parties seized power through coups and led their countries into wars that resulted in nothing but defeat. The Ba'ath Party in Syria was defeated in wars against Israel in 1967 and 1973, and the Ba'ath Party in Iraq did not achieve victory in the eight-year war with the Islamic Republic. Relations between Damascus during Hafez al-Assad's era and Baghdad under Saddam Hussein deteriorated. Saddam, who was considered a rival faction of Assad within the Ba'ath Party, accused Syria of conspiring against his power. Eventually, the Ba'ath parties of Iraq and Syria became enemies of each other to the extent that during the Iran-Iraq War, the Ba'ath Party of Syria supported the Islamic Republic at least until the last year of the war. Shortly after the start of the Iran-Iraq War, relations between Iraq and Syria were severed due to Hafez al-Assad's support for the Islamic Republic. Hosseini-Fard states that the relations between the two Ba'ath parties have fluctuated, including alliances and enmities. This political analyst emphasizes that the main dispute between the two parties was over greater influence in the Arab world. Although the Ba'ath Party of Iraq and the Ba'ath Party of Syria had disagreements, they effectively suppressed their opponents using similar methods. In Iraq, the Ba'ath Party repressed Shia and Kurds, while in Syria, Hafez al-Assad's government responded decisively to the Muslim Brotherhood's deadly attack on a military school in Aleppo in 1979. This attack led to the Syrian army's assault on Hama at Hafez al-Assad's command, resulting in the 'Hama Massacre.' No accurate statistics on the number of victims of this massacre were ever published, but reports from various sources indicate that between 10,000 to 40,000 people were killed. In both countries, the parties became subservient to the country's leader, and anyone opposing Saddam or Assad was eliminated. For example, Hafez al-Assad would also remove his rivals from close power circles, and in 1980, Salah al-Din al-Bitar, a former prime minister of Syria who was a critic of Hafez al-Assad's regime, was assassinated in Paris. But now, with both parties disappearing from the political scene in Iraq and Syria, the question arises whether the Ba'ath Party will ever revive again. Habib Hosseini-Fard states that the Ba'ath Party has been one of the most influential and longstanding parties in the Arab world, governing for years in significant areas of the Arab world and having branches in countries where it did not govern. He adds that given this history, one should not dismiss the possibility of attempts to revive the Ba'ath, although there is currently no prospect for the revival of this party. Some Arab countries that have undergone political changes in recent years have moved towards authoritarianism and nationalism instead of making strides towards full democracy. For instance, in Tunisia, where people overthrew Zine El Abidine Ben Ali's regime during the protests known as the 'Arab Spring,' they have still not been able to achieve stable democracy. The current president of this country, emphasizing the Arabic language over French, is seeking to strengthen national sentiments. Sami Marwan Moubayed, a Syrian historian and author of the book 'The Rise and Fall of Democracy in Syria,' has stated that Arab nationalism may be revived in this country, but what is certain is that the Ba'ath Party will no longer be present.