Ahmad Khatami: Diminishing Influence or Exclusion by the Velayat-e Faqih Institution?

The holding of the ninth elections for the members of the "Supreme Council of Islamic Seminaries" and the confirmation of its results by Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, has become controversial. The failure of Seyyed Ahmad Khatami to secure a position, following his removal from the board of the sixth Assembly of Experts, is at the center of discussions. There are whispers that these events signify his marginalization within the power bloc and a distancing from the trust of the Velayat-e Faqih institution due to his opposition to Mojtaba Khamenei's succession. However, there is still no credible evidence or documentation regarding this matter. Ahmad Khatami still holds positions such as membership in the Guardian Council, temporary Friday prayer leadership in Tehran, membership in the board of the Computer Research Center of Islamic Sciences, and membership in the Supreme Council of the World Assembly of Ahl al-Bayt. This 64-year-old cleric from Kerman replaced Sheikh Mohammad Yazdi in the Guardian Council in 1399 (2020). In 1401 (2022), he was again selected by Khamenei as one of the six clerics in the eighth Guardian Council. Based on the tradition of changing half of the clerics in the Guardian Council every three years, he may be sidelined next year. Is Mojtaba Khamenei moving towards hereditary succession? Ahmad Khatami emerged in the political scene of Iran suddenly after the second of Khordad 76 (May 1997) and the presidency of Mohammad Khatami, due to the similarity of their names and his contradictory views against the reformist movement. In the 1980s, he was a student of Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who, according to Mehdi Karroubi, was present at the front row of his classes. However, after the "illegal dismissal" of Ayatollah Montazeri from the position of leadership deputy, he separated his path and aligned with the ruling establishment, opposing the political and theological positions of his former teacher like several senior officials of the Islamic Republic, such as Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. Seyyed Ahmad Khatami quickly ascended the ranks of power due to his services to the Velayat-e Faqih institution and became one of the spokespersons of the dominant power faction. He has maintained this position. His recent statements in Friday prayers in Tehran indicate that he has articulated the official positions of the regime in opposition to the United States, defended Ismail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and emphasized the necessity of responding to Israeli attacks. No critical stance regarding the current situation has been observed from him. However, it seems that his influence within the power bloc has relatively weakened. While he was the spokesperson for the board of the fifth Assembly of Experts, he did not secure any position in the sixth board. He held the position of secretary from the third to the fifth Assembly, which was not a high rank and did not lead to promotion. Individuals like Ebrahim Raisi and Seyyed Hashim Hosseini Bushehri, despite initially holding lower positions than him in the board of the Assembly of Experts, managed to rise to the vice-presidency of the Assembly. The sixth Assembly; complete dominance of Khamenei over the current and future government. The Supreme Council of Islamic Seminaries is a seminary institution elected by members of the Society of Teachers for a four-year term, and after Khamenei's confirmation and that of several government clerics, it manages the seminaries in educational, ethical, promotional, and social dimensions. This institution was initially established in 1358 (1979) by the order of Ayatollah Khomeini and with the participation of Ayatollah Mohammad Golpaygani. Its initial form involved the election of members based on the introduction of three representatives from each of the two aforementioned clerics and three representatives from the Society of Teachers of Qom Seminary. After Khamenei became the leader, he coordinated with Ayatollah Araki and Golpaygani to change the method of electing members so that the members of the Society of Teachers would elect a seven-member group for his and the clerics' approval. Since 1375 (1996), this procedure has been implemented, and the approval of the clerics has become ceremonial. In the early restructuring periods of the council, Naser Makarem Shirazi, Abolqasem Mesbah Yazdi, and Reza Ostadi were present to somehow gain the approval of government clerics, but in recent periods, Khamenei's preferred forces and his appointees have been elected to the council. It is unclear whether the members of the Society of Teachers vote freely and based on their own judgment or if they act under the influence of the decisions of the Leader's office. Ahmad Khatami became a member of this council from the fifth term and retained this position for three subsequent terms but was sidelined in the ninth term. To examine whether this event has political significance, one can analyze the status of other members elected in the ninth term. Ahmad Khatami denied the publication of a letter regarding the "determination of Khamenei's succession." Of the seven members of the eighth term, only two (Ahmad Khatami and Hosseini Bushehri) are absent in the ninth term. The two replacements (Seyyed Mohammad Ghoravi and Mahmoud Abdollahi) are not newcomers. Abdollahi, whose views align with the traditionalist segment of the Society of Teachers, was a member of the council in the fourth and fifth terms and joined this institution earlier than Ahmad Khatami. Ghoravi has been continuously present from the third to the seventh term and was only absent in the eighth term. Hosseini Bushehri initially became a member in the third term, was absent in the fourth, and was a member from the fifth to the eighth term. Therefore, changes in the council do not follow a regular pattern. Ahmad Khatami may return to membership in the tenth term. Another important case is the position of Seyyed Hashim Hosseini Bushehri. He is not present in the ninth term of the Council of Management of Islamic Seminaries but is the president of the Society of Teachers of Qom Seminary, the institution that elected the members of the aforementioned council! He is also the first vice president of the sixth Assembly of Experts. Therefore, it cannot be concluded that the lack of election in the Council of Management of Islamic Seminaries is a sign of marginalization or exclusion from power. It can also be concluded that Ahmad Khatami was not intended to hold a high position in the power hierarchy of the Islamic Republic from the beginning. Overall, developments in the coming months will clarify the status of Seyyed Ahmad Khatami. For now, he remains within the power bloc, but his number of governmental positions has relatively decreased.