Akbar Ganji: The Roots of the December 2017 Protest Movement: Economy and Revolution?

A note by Akbar Ganji -- The week-long popular protest movement from December 7 to 13, 2017, requires explanation. Analysts in cyberspace and websites have provided various analyses based on their views, information, and aspirations. This writing will focus solely on the relationship between economic causes and that protest movement. Some viewed the protest as a revolution (like the French Revolution, Russian Revolution, Chinese Revolution, Cuban Revolution, Islamic Revolution of Iran, etc.) that was toppling the regime, while others considered it a social movement. Some spoke of a rebellion. Whatever this protest was, what was its relationship with the existing economic situation in Iran, and to which class did its actors belong? Analysis by Ayatollah Khamenei and conservatives Ayatollah Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guards, Basij forces, religious authorities, and all conservatives regarded the main root of this "popular protest movement" as economic issues created by Hassan Rouhani's government, claiming that foreign enemies exploited the rightful protests of the people against economic problems and that a small group led it astray with subversive slogans. For instance, during the presidential elections, General Mohsen Rezaei wrote that: "The continuation of factional and personal governments, especially Mr. Rouhani's, will turn Iran into the second Sudan." All prominent conservative figures stated that the economy was completely destroyed and the country was on the brink of collapse. They went so far as to use a Marxist base/superstructure analysis to explain all social, cultural, religious, and ideological issues, claiming that if economic problems were resolved, other non-economic issues would also be solved. They continue to actively pursue this claim. After Hassan Rouhani's election, this approach not only did not change, but all conservatives mobilized and increasingly spoke of the horrific economic situation in Iran and the incompetence of Rouhani's "aristocratic government" to resolve it. For example, on the morning of the first day of protests, General Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on December 7, 2017: "Today, if we are stuck in the economy and people are being crushed in the cycle of life in this area due to the lack of people's presence in the economy, the main root of the systematic corruption we observe in the country is that people are not present in the economy." Thus, Ayatollah Khamenei and all conservatives consider the main issue of the country to be economic issues that have led to the rightful protest movement of the people. However, foreign enemies and their internal agents exploited this rightful popular movement. According to them, only economic demands from the executive branch are justified and legitimate, while subversive political demands are bad and the wishes of enemies. Marxist Analysis A group of leftists in their writings spoke of deep economic crises resulting from the neoliberal and rent-seeking policies of Hassan Rouhani's government, and how the majority of people have become trapped in poverty, discrimination, looting, unemployment, inflation, economic stagnation, and regime corruption. The protest movement was a movement of the deprived. Their reaction was against discrimination, corruption, mismanagement, poverty, high prices, unemployment, and exploitation. This movement will lead to a revolution—not of the classical type. Some leftists, for the first time, have seen the deprived layers, the poor, low-income individuals, marginalized people, workers, and part of the middle-income layers of society rise against the entirety of the oppressive system, and even if suppressed, it is a precursor to revolution. Some leftists spoke of a "pre-revolutionary" period and issued commands to seize prisons and free political prisoners. Some wrote in such a way that it seemed we were facing a workers' revolution. Of course, a small group of Marxist students also chanted slogans like "Bread, Freedom, Housing" at Tehran University. The main issue was that many viewed this movement as a "revolution," a revolution caused by economic reasons that could be explained by the political economy of Marx and Engels. They wrote that the current political crisis is a result of the political economy of the system, which is neoliberal. Economy and Revolution There is no doubt that the country is grappling with economic issues, inequality, corruption, and favoritism. The issue of the relationship between the economy and revolution, rebellion, and political protest is crucial. Is there a causal relationship between economic issues (e.g., class divide, unemployment, etc.) and political protest and revolution? Is there a correlation between economic causes and the overthrow of the political regime? Iran's economic problems have led the Islamic Republic to: a) lose control over parts of society; b) face a policy-making crisis. Moderates led by Hassan Rouhani seek transparency, integration into the global economy, and improved relations with the West led by the United States. However, conservatives led by Ayatollah Khamenei have closed the path to reconciliation and foreign investment with an aggressive foreign policy in the region and the world. The conflict between the conciliatory and confrontational approaches has led to paralysis in economic policies. c) A rupture in relations between the regime and industrial and commercial sectors has occurred. Instead of managing the crisis and preventing its politicization, the conservatives and military leaders led by Ayatollah Khamenei have exacerbated it. Hassan Rouhani has also taken no action to build consensus on resolving economic issues due to his incompetence. Let us speak based on a scientific study. A study in South America showed that between 1945 and 1988, no non-democratic regime could survive with three consecutive years of negative economic growth and was overthrown. The probability of survival for a non-democratic regime with three consecutive years of negative economic growth is only 33%. However, the probability of survival for democratic regimes with three consecutive years of negative economic growth is 73% (Graham Gill, Dynamics of Democratization, translated by Saeed Hajinaseri and Farid Hosseini Maram, Akhtaran Publishing, first edition 2015, p. 21). Let us compare this study with the economic situation of two leftist-governed countries—Greece and Venezuela—and then turn to Iran. Greece The economic crisis of 2008 caused a global economic crisis. The austerity policies implemented after this crisis led to many political protests. In the United States, the Occupy Wall Street movement emerged, which was suppressed by the police. We also witnessed widespread protests in Spain. With the killing of a teenager by the police in December 2008, riots of the deprived in Greece against the affluent and ruling classes began. In May 2010, three more people were killed in protest movements. The economic situation in Greece has not been compatible with that claim. According to the World Bank, Greece's economic growth from 2008 to 2016 was -0.335, -4.301, -5.479, -9.132, -7.3, -3.241, +0.74, -0.291, and -0.244 percent, respectively. Thus, years of continuous negative economic growth, along with other negative economic indicators, did not bring down the regime. According to the World Bank, Greece's unemployment rate from 2008 to 2017 was 7.8, 9.6, 12.7, 17.9, 24.4, 27.5, 26.5, 24.9, 23.5, and 23.1 percent, respectively. Greece's external debt, due to the austerity policies imposed by the European Union and the World Bank, decreased from 445 billion euros in January 2016 to 415 billion euros in July 2017. According to the CIA, Greece's external debt in March 2016 was 506.6 billion dollars. Another source states that Greece's external debt decreased to 325 billion euros in 2017. According to the website Ferda, Greece's Gini coefficient in 2012 was 36.7. The UN Development Report shows that Greece's average Gini coefficient from 2010 to 2015 was 36.7 (p. 206). Venezuela Venezuela has been suffering from a deep economic crisis and political protests for years. In 2014, 40 people were killed in political protests in Venezuela. According to the Venezuelan government, 111 people were killed in political protests in 2017 until July—when demonstrations were banned. However, the Venezuelan opposition claims that by that time, 126 people had been killed. The opposition completely boycotted the recent municipal council elections, and the government also barred them from running in the upcoming parliamentary elections. The dire economic situation in Venezuela contradicts the claim of "three consecutive years of negative economic growth and political collapse." According to the World Bank, Venezuela's economic growth rates in 2001 and 2002 were -8.856 and -7.755, respectively. The country's economic growth rates in 2009 and 2010 were -3.202 and -1.489, respectively. The economic growth rate in 2014 was -3.894. According to the website Statista, Venezuela's economic growth in 2015, 2016, and 2017 was -6.2, -16.5, and -12 percent, respectively. In other words, in the last four consecutive years, it has experienced high negative economic growth. According to the World Bank, Venezuela's inflation rates from 2008 to 2015 were 31.4, 27, 28.2, 26.1, 21.1, 40.6, 62.2, and 110 percent, respectively. The Global Finance website, citing the International Monetary Fund, reported Venezuela's inflation in 2016 and 2017 as 475.8 percent and 1660 percent, respectively. According to the IMF, Venezuela's inflation rate in 2018 will reach 2300 percent. The IMF also predicts that Venezuela's unemployment rate will rise to 30 percent in 2018. According to the CIA, Venezuela's external debt as of December 31, 2016, was 109.8 billion dollars. According to the Trading Economics website, Venezuela's external debt in September 2017 was 244 billion dollars, which decreased to 83 billion dollars in October. Various sources estimate Venezuela's external debt to be between 100 to 150 billion dollars. The UN Development Report shows that Venezuela's average Gini coefficient from 2010 to 2015 was 46.9 (p. 207). Iran The first decade of the Iranian revolution contradicts that claim. According to the World Bank, Iran's average economic growth in the first decade of the revolution (1979-1988) was -1.8 percent. There were three consecutive years of high negative growth in 1980, 1981, and 1982. Similarly, there were three consecutive years of negative growth in 1986, 1987, and 1988. According to the World Bank, Iran's economic growth in 2012 and 2013 was -7.5 and -0.2 percent, respectively. Although the Iranian economy is plagued by discrimination, corruption, inflation, unemployment, poverty, favoritism, etc., almost all important economic indicators in Iran during this period have been better than those of Greece and Venezuela. Firstly, one cannot establish a causal relationship between the economic situation (e.g., inequality, discrimination, poverty, unemployment, etc.) and the recent economic movement. It cannot even be claimed that the protest movement has a "high correlation" with the economic situation. On the one hand, important economic indicators in Iran have been better than those of Greece and Venezuela, and on the other hand, the situation has not worsened compared to the presidency of Ahmadinejad. Look at the average annual growth of past presidents: the eight-year term of Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-1996): 5.17 percent, the eight-year term of Mohammad Khatami (1997-2004): 4.33 percent, the eight-year term of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2013): 3.23 percent. According to the World Bank, Iran's economic growth in the second four years of Ahmadinejad's presidency (2009-2012) was +1, +5.8, +2.6, and -7.4 percent, respectively. Iran's economic growth during the first four years of Hassan Rouhani's presidency (2013-2016) was -0.2, +4.6, -1.3, and +13.4 percent, respectively. The IMF and World Bank estimate Iran's economic growth in 2017 to be around 4 to 4.5 percent. Their estimate is that Iran's economic growth in 2018 will be in this range as well. However, Rouhani's government officials estimate Iran's economic growth in 2017 to be 5 to 7 percent based on the performance of the first six months of the year. According to the World Bank, Iran's unemployment rate from 2008 to 2017 was 10.5, 12, 13.5, 12.3, 12.2, 10.4, 10.6, 11.1, 11.4, and 11.4 percent, respectively. According to the World Bank, Iran's inflation rate from 2008 to 2016 was 25.5, 13.5, 10.1, 20.6, 27.3, 39.3, 17.2, 13.7, and 8.5 percent, respectively. There is little evidence to support the claim that the working class, the poor, the destitute, and the hungry were the agents and drivers of the protest movement. a) Some severely deprived areas of the country, such as South and North Khorasan, Ilam, Kohgiluyeh, etc., participated in the protests much less than other areas. b) The protest movement did not occur in any city in the impoverished marginal areas but was evident in central urban areas. c) According to the sociologists we referenced, the two lowest income deciles, which are the poorest, cannot be the agents of a "political protest movement" or revolution. d) A large majority of the protest movement's forces were young people from the 1970s who had mobile phones and were connected to the internet and social networks. They do not necessarily belong to the lowest two deciles of society. e) Economic slogans like "Bread, Housing, Freedom" and "Workers, Students, Your Union is Blessed" were only chanted by a small group of leftist students at Tehran University. The middle class constituted the main members of the protest movement, and the leading figures also belonged to this class. According to the CIA, Iran's external debt as of December 31, 2016, was 8 billion and 196 million dollars. The World Bank's report on this is lower than that of the CIA. The IMF considers the GDP to be 368 billion dollars. The total government debt (internal and external) is 32 percent of GDP (p. 106), but the external debt of the government is 2 percent of GDP (p. 110). According to the website Ferda, Iran's Gini coefficient in 2013 was 37.5. According to the World Bank, Iran's Gini coefficient in 2013 was 37.35. The UN Development Report shows that Iran's average Gini coefficient from 2010 to 2015 was 37.4 (p. 207).