Ambiguity Surrounding the Source of Widespread Smoke in the Sky of Karaj; Cyberattack or Fuel Burning?

Images shared on social media show widespread smoke near Karaj, seemingly related to the Montazer Qaim power plant in Ferdows. Concurrently, some citizen reports indicate the presence of government armed forces in the streets. Voice of America cannot independently verify these reports. On Thursday, October 25, some sources on social media published videos of thick smoke spreading in the sky, reportedly related to a power plant near Karaj. Some sources have claimed that the smoke seen in the sky is due to a fire resulting from a 'cyberattack' on 'nuclear facilities,' while others have stated that the fire is at the Montazer Qaim power plant in Ferdows, which is a combined cycle thermal power plant and one of the important power plants in Iran. Meanwhile, some accounts close to the Islamic Republic have claimed that the smoke is due to 'fuel burning' at the Montazer Qaim power plant and is not related to a fire. Some citizen reports also indicate a significant presence of armed forces of the Islamic Republic in the streets of Karaj. According to statements published on social media, armed agents of the Islamic Republic have been stationed in the streets of Karaj and have set up checkpoints in some areas. These reports come as Israel has threatened the Islamic Republic with retaliatory attacks following missile launches by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps towards the country, an attack that observers have analyzed differently regarding its scale and nature. Hossein Aghaei, an international relations and strategic affairs researcher, in an interview with Voice of America, considered three possible hypotheses for Israel's response and stated that the most likely hypothesis is the 'octopus scenario,' which envisions a 'relatively large war, but below the threshold of a full-scale regional and international war.' According to Mr. Aghaei, this war 'will be ongoing' and Israel's movements 'will depend on events occurring inside Iran in the wake of this country's military response,' including 'certainly targeted assassinations of military officials and sabotage operations at nuclear and military centers and the IRGC.' He noted that 'not only will we witness a single military action by Israel, but we will see a chain of reactions' that Israel will 'activate, resulting in a chain of chaos that could initiate the process of overthrowing the Islamic Republic.'