American Negotiator: Iran's Nuclear Agreement Will Face Multiple Challenges Next Year

Before embarking on his last foreign trip as President of the United States, Barack Obama warned Congress that he would veto any legislation that would hinder financial facilities for the sale of passenger planes to Iran. Some members of Congress argue that the Islamic Republic of Iran might use the planes it intends to purchase for military purposes, and therefore they want to pass a law to prevent the sale of these aircraft. I spoke with Richard Nephew, a former U.S. negotiator on sanctions, about this congressional action and Barack Obama's warning. Given that Barack Obama's presidency is coming to an end, what will happen if he vetoes a bill regarding sanctions on Iran after leaving the White House? This is a good question. The way the U.S. Constitution works is one reason the president can veto this bill, and then it goes back to Congress. Our system is such that the president is the president until he is not. As a result, he has all the power he needs to veto an issue. Congress has the right to return this bill for approval to the president. However, with the change in Congress that will occur in January, lawmakers will need to draft a new bill, and a different process will begin. Therefore, from a legal perspective, vetoing is not unusual, but from a political standpoint, I think everyone somewhat expects Trump and the Republican Congress to draft laws that may not specifically target Boeing but will generally target the nuclear agreement, and I believe the agreement will face multiple challenges next year. Richard Nephew is a researcher and director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University and also a researcher at the Brookings Institution. He previously served as Deputy Coordinator for Sanctions Policy at the U.S. State Department and was a senior sanctions expert in the P5+1 negotiations with Iran. On Monday, European foreign ministers issued a statement regarding Iran, emphasizing that the issue of aircraft sales is important for the successful implementation of the JCPOA. In your opinion, how influential are such positions outside of the U.S. on decision-making inside the U.S.? Certainly. I hope the next administration considers such concerns from America's allies in Europe and also the real value of the agreement, including its security benefits for the U.S., Europe, and the Middle East. Nevertheless, it is almost clear that politicians in the Republican Party have not been favorable to the agreement from the outset and have not supported it, and they will do everything they can to undermine it in the next Congress. I am not sure they will take these concerns into account, and I think the question will now arise for Europe about what to do. Because if the U.S. retreats from the issue of lifting sanctions, it will create serious problems for Airbus and European companies. European airlines rely on American technology, and this is the reality of the aviation industry. Imposing sanctions in this area by the U.S. will also affect their operations, and European countries and companies will think about how to deal with the U.S. and Congress. What about the nuclear agreement in general? Since last week, there has been much discussion about how the next U.S. administration could change or dismantle this agreement. What do you think the main challenge is, and what will the next administration focus on? I think we should start with the question that the next president and Republicans have not answered, which is whether they want to maintain the nuclear agreement as it is or not? Or are they confident they can achieve a better agreement, or that any agreement will be better than this one, and for that reason, they are ready to tear it up? It would be very easy for the president or Congress to strike the agreement; this agreement operates based on executive orders from the president because there was a concern that Congress would not accept and ratify an international treaty, and this is not unusual in the U.S. But this means that a lot of power is in the hands of the president in this area, and from day one, he can stop all the sanctions suspension orders that have been issued, and the sanctions can be reimposed. These questions have not yet been answered, and I think this is because they do not know how to deal with the consequences. What will happen to Iran's nuclear program, how will America's allies and the Middle East react to it? It would be very easy for the president or Congress to strike the agreement; this agreement operates based on executive orders from the president because there was a concern that Congress would not accept and ratify an international treaty, and this is not unusual in the U.S. But this means that a lot of power is in the hands of the president in this area, and from day one, he can stop all the sanctions suspension orders that have been issued, and the sanctions can be reimposed, and then it will be Iran's turn to respond to this issue. The president (of the U.S.) can also allow these issued orders to expire, as these orders must be reissued every 120 or 180 days, and there is always the possibility that new sanctions laws will be passed, either in the nuclear or non-nuclear areas. Therefore, if the president and Congress want, there are plenty of opportunities to dismantle the agreement.