American Think Tank Expert to VOA: It Is 'Not Too Late' to Prevent Nuclear Bomb Development in Iran

Andrea Stricker, a researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, states that it is 'not too late' to prevent the development of a nuclear bomb in Iran, but the options for prevention are diminishing. She also warned that if the West fails to utilize existing economic and financial sanctions to halt Iran's nuclear advancements, Washington may face the hard option of military strikes. In recent days, multiple reports in Western media have surfaced regarding Iran's nuclear activities. Axios reported, citing 'two American officials and one current and one former Israeli official,' that U.S. and Israeli intelligence agencies are examining new espionage information about computer modeling by Iranian specialists that may be used in bomb construction. The Wall Street Journal also noted in an article published on Tuesday, June 29, that if the information regarding computer modeling in Iran is accurate, it indicates that the Islamic Republic is seriously pursuing the construction of a nuclear bomb. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency recently announced that Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is increasing and has reached approximately 142 kilograms, which is over 20 kilograms more than the agency's previous estimate. However, due to the agency's access limitations to nuclear sites in Iran, this figure is considered an estimate. The Wall Street Journal further states that new intelligence information also suggests that the Islamic Republic is beginning the stages of constructing missiles necessary to carry about six nuclear bombs, which could be produced using that amount of enriched uranium. Mark Dubowitz, a long-time Iran affairs observer from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, recently stated that in his opinion, the 'weaponization' of Iran's nuclear program has begun. The American newspaper Washington Post also reported on Wednesday, June 30, new construction activities at two of the Islamic Republic's uranium enrichment centers; Fordow and Natanz. The newspaper reported that only at the Fordow nuclear facility, which has the highest protection due to being built deep inside a mountain, construction is underway that could rapidly triple the production of enriched uranium there, and hundreds of new centrifuges are set to be deployed. Options for prevention are diminishing. Andrea Stricker, a researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who follows nuclear activities in Iran, stated in a written interview with VOA that while the Islamic Republic's nuclear program has advanced over the past three years, Washington has not taken action to counter it for more than three years. She also mentioned a new nuclear facility in Iran – likely an enrichment center – near the Natanz nuclear site that few people are discussing, a site that is 100 meters underground and could be immune to U.S. airstrikes. According to this nuclear affairs expert, 'If the West cannot use existing economic and financial sanctions to retreat and prevent Tehran's advancements, Washington will face the difficult decision of military strikes' if other efforts fail, and the Islamic Republic is increasingly pushing the U.S. toward this option. The Biden administration has repeatedly stated, amid extensive diplomatic efforts, that it will not allow the Islamic Republic to acquire nuclear weapons and has announced various sanctions over the past few years. In response to a question from VOA's Persian section about whether the Islamic Republic has taken advantage of the Israel-Hamas war crisis, which has become the focus of global attention, to expand its nuclear activities, she said, 'Tehran may use the distraction of Gaza both for covert advancement and for overt advancement of the option (to build) a nuclear weapon.' She stated that the Iranian government can now produce weapon-grade enriched uranium for the construction of 13 nuclear bombs within four months and can produce the material needed for the first bomb from this number within 'one week,' and it can increase its uranium enrichment capacity to 80%. Israel had repeatedly stated its readiness for military action against the Islamic Republic's nuclear program before the Gaza attack. However, after the extensive missile attack by the Islamic Republic on this country, reports indicate that it refrained from striking nuclear facilities in Iran and limited itself to a targeted attack. Andrea Stricker explained to VOA's Persian section why Israel made such a decision, stating that Israel was able to demonstrate that it could strike nuclear facilities in Iran by hitting one of the air defense systems near the nuclear centers, thus sending a clear message to the Islamic Republic without escalating tensions. She said, 'Jerusalem's response to the extremely provocative attack' by the Islamic Republic of Iran was measured. When asked why the Iranian government has not yet produced nuclear weapons, she said, 'The regime has been able to benefit from being on the brink of becoming a nuclear power.' According to her, ultimately, the Islamic Republic will conduct a cost-benefit analysis to determine whether building a weapon will be advantageous or more costly. Andrea Stricker stated that the West has completely failed to read and address the nuclear threat posed by the Iranian government, which is why the regime is making the most of this situation. In her advice to the West on countering the Islamic Republic's nuclear activities, she said, 'The time to change course is now,' and a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic could wreak havoc in the region, something that today's policymakers cannot ignore for future generations.