Among Trump's Problems with the JCPOA

As the third deadline for the Islamic Republic's compliance with the nuclear agreement known as the JCPOA approaches, the question of what President Trump will do this time becomes increasingly important. The Associated Press, based on conversations with several unnamed American officials, published a report on Wednesday, October 4, attempting to answer what Trump's problem with the JCPOA is and what will happen in the less than two weeks remaining until the third deadline. Since his election campaign and even before, Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Barack Obama for signing the nuclear agreement and has claimed several times that he would cancel it. However, now that Trump has been in the White House for months, he has not only failed to cancel or abandon the JCPOA but has also been compelled to officially confirm Iran's compliance with the agreement twice. According to a law passed by the U.S. Congress, the U.S. government must report to lawmakers every 90 days on Iran's compliance or non-compliance with the JCPOA. This October, the U.S. government must once again announce its position on the JCPOA. The Associated Press's new report states that this very law is Trump's biggest problem with the JCPOA. The report states that after all the criticism and disparagement of the nuclear agreement, the official confirmation of Iran's compliance with the JCPOA has become 'such a source of embarrassment and shame' for the U.S. President that his national security advisors are 'looking for ways' for him not to have to confirm Iran's compliance anymore. However, the point is that the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is the technical monitor of the JCPOA's implementation, confirms that Iran has so far adhered to its commitments under the 2015 nuclear agreement with the 1+5 countries. Yukiya Amano, the agency's director-general, stated on September 11 that the agency has been verifying and monitoring Iran's activities in accordance with the agreement since its implementation began, and that Iran has indeed implemented these provisions. According to the Associated Press, this makes it difficult for the Trump administration to claim that Iran has not been compliant with the JCPOA. Meanwhile, senior officials in the Trump administration also seem to agree with the agency and have even gone further to confirm that the implementation of the JCPOA aligns with U.S. security interests. For instance, James Mattis, the U.S. Secretary of Defense, appeared in the Senate on Tuesday, October 3, and explicitly stated in response to a question that he believes 'the JCPOA is in the national interest of the United States.' Previously, there had been a disagreement between Trump and his Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, regarding the JCPOA, and this disagreement had also been reported in the media. The magazine 'Foreign Policy' reported on July 21, citing three unnamed sources 'close to the White House,' about Trump's dissatisfaction with his Secretary of State regarding the JCPOA. Two months later, the Wall Street Journal also reported on September 21 about the disagreement between Trump and his Secretary of State over the nuclear agreement with Iran. Foreign Policy also noted that Trump, following his dissatisfaction, had asked 'a group of trusted White House staff' to prepare a 'potential case' to prove Iran's non-compliance with the JCPOA text within the next 90-day deadline. Now, as the Associated Press reports, the issue for the U.S. President's aides is to find a way for him not to have to confirm the implementation of the JCPOA every three months. However, there is no clear and straightforward path for these aides, which has caused 'anger and frustration' among them. In the meantime, the 'most likely' scenario appears to be that on October 15, Trump will not confirm Iran's compliance with the JCPOA, and then the hard work of diplomats and other U.S. officials will begin, who will have to argue that this action 'does not mean leaving the JCPOA nor imposing further sanctions' on Iran. Another option, according to the Associated Press, is that Trump could once again confirm Iran's compliance but then insistently persuade Congress to change the law so that he would no longer be obliged to do so. The Associated Press itself, quoting 'officials,' has described this option as 'unlikely': 'It is not reasonable to expect that U.S. lawmakers would quickly pass legislation on such a complex issue.' On the other hand, changing the provisions of the JCPOA has opponents not only in the U.S. but also in Europe and Iran. A day after the U.S. Secretary of State called for changes to the nuclear agreement with Iran, the EU's foreign policy chief emphasized the need to preserve the agreement and announced his opposition to renegotiating the JCPOA. The same point was made by the Iranian President on September 20 at a press conference in New York, stating that the nuclear agreement with the six world powers is an international agreement and is not subject to renegotiation. Now, it remains to be seen what reaction the Trump administration will have on October 15, just 11 days from now: will they once again confirm the JCPOA, will they not confirm it, or will they remain silent, which would also imply a lack of confirmation of Iran's compliance? All this is happening while it seems that the issue has been resolved for Trump himself: nearly two weeks ago, he stated regarding the fate of the JCPOA in the U.S., 'I have made my decision and I will tell you what that decision is.' The U.S. President has not yet disclosed what decision he has made in this regard. Meanwhile, Rex Tillerson stated on Wednesday that he would present several options for decision-making regarding the JCPOA to Trump. He emphasized that regardless of what path the U.S. takes regarding the JCPOA, it is only a part of the broader U.S. policy towards Iran. The U.S. Secretary of State stated that the JCPOA constitutes only a small part of the broader issues that we must address when it comes to relations with Iran.