An Overview of Various Scenarios Regarding the Potential Confrontation Between the Islamic Republic and Israel

Following two deadly attacks on Foad Shaker, the senior commander of Hezbollah, and Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas's political bureau, in Beirut and Tehran last week, the Middle East is on the brink of a direct confrontation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Israel. Although Israel has neither accepted nor denied responsibility for the operation that took down Haniyeh, the Islamic Republic pointed the finger at this country from the very first moments of the news breaking. Senior officials of the Islamic Republic, led by Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Iranian government, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have repeatedly threatened over the past nine days that they will not leave the attack on Haniyeh unanswered, especially the early morning attack on August 1 within Iranian territory. At the same time, groups supported by the Iranian government, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, have threatened to attack Israel. The Persian section of Voice of America here reviews at least 10 reports published in reputable world media, outlining the main scenarios proposed regarding a potential confrontation between the Islamic Republic of Iran and its proxy groups with Israel. Most experts believe that the deaths of Foad Shaker and Ismail Haniyeh will not go unanswered, and their disagreements revolve around the participants, methods, scope, and objectives of the attacks, as well as Israel's reaction to them. Attacks on Israeli diplomatic sites and Jewish centers worldwide, strikes on 'secret centers' of Israel in neighboring countries, direct attacks from Iranian soil to Israel, direct attacks by proxy groups, particularly Hezbollah, on Israel, and coordinated attacks by the Islamic Republic and its proxies on Israel are among the main scenarios discussed. The website Al-Monitor reported on Thursday, August 2, that among the possible options considered by the Islamic Republic in response to Israel's deadly attacks on its proxy commanders is an attack on Israeli diplomatic centers (similar to the 1992 suicide bombing at the Israeli embassy in Argentina) or attacks on Jewish centers worldwide (similar to the 1994 AMIA bombing in Argentina). Another scenario involves the Islamic Republic attacking 'secret centers' of Israel in neighboring countries, particularly Iraqi Kurdistan and Azerbaijan. The British newspaper Telegraph reported on Friday, August 11, that contrary to senior IRGC officials who favor a direct attack on Israeli military sites in Tel Aviv and other cities, the new President of Iran, Massoud Pezeshkian, supports a warning attack on 'secret centers' of Israel in neighboring countries, especially Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan. According to the report, Pezeshkian's 'deputies' told the Telegraph that he is concerned about the 'serious repercussions' of a direct attack on Israel. They quoted Pezeshkian as saying that Iran was fortunate not to enter into a full-scale war during the confrontation with Israel in April. They added that Pezeshkian favors sending more advanced weapons to Hezbollah and having this group confront Israel instead of the Iranian government. Another main scenario is a direct attack by the Islamic Republic on Israel, similar to the midnight attack on April 14, during which more than 300 missiles and drones were fired at Israel. Politico reported on Tuesday, August 15, citing a military expert, that the Iranian government may use medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles to attack Israel from Iranian soil. There is much speculation about the potential targets of the Iranian government or its proxy groups. The British newspaper Guardian reported on Thursday, August 18, citing some 'officials,' that the Iranian government is likely reviewing the scale and form of its attack on Israel in response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. The mentioned officials told the Guardian that despite the lack of explicit support from Muslim governments for a military attack by Iran on Israel, such an attack is unlikely to be delayed. According to this British newspaper, the Islamic Republic is likely to target the perpetrators of the deadly attack on Ismail Haniyeh, especially Mossad and its affiliated organizations, rather than Israeli civilians. The news network Al Jazeera reported on Tuesday, August 16, citing experts, that a potential attack by the Iranian government on Israel is 'imminent' and 'calculated.' According to a conflict and peace institute analyst, Iranian officials are trying to ensure that their response to Haniyeh's killing carries the message that 'aggressive actions such as assassination should not be committed on Iranian soil' while also avoiding a 'cycle of escalation' in tension and violence. An Israeli analyst also told Al Jazeera that the more evidence there is of coordination from Iran and the longer the start of the attack takes, the more likely it is that the attack will be 'more controlled' and 'more restrained.' However, another scenario is based on independent and uncoordinated actions by Iran's proxy groups, particularly Hezbollah, against Israel. The news network CNN reported on Wednesday, August 17, citing 'two sources familiar with intelligence matters,' that Hezbollah may attack Israel independently of the Iranian government. According to one of these two sources, Hezbollah is preparing for an attack on Israel faster than the Islamic Republic and may attack 'in the coming days.' Several other sources told CNN that the Iranian government is still preparing its plan for how to respond to Israel. An American military official told CNN that the United States believes the Islamic Republic has prepared some—but not all—of the preparations for a major attack on Israel. The second intelligence source told CNN that given the geographical proximity of Lebanon and Israel, Hezbollah may attack Israel without prior warning, unlike the Iranian government. He added that it is currently unclear whether the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah will carry out a potential attack on Israel in a coordinated manner. According to this intelligence source, there is a sentiment among some officials that Hezbollah and the Iranian government may not be aligned on how to act against Israel. According to another scenario, the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups will coordinate their attacks on Israel. Al Arabiya reported on Wednesday, August 17, that the need for coordination among Iran's proxy groups has delayed the attack on Israel. According to this report, the attack by Iran and Hezbollah on Israel will be 'calculated' and 'measured.' Al Arabiya quoted an international relations professor at the University of Ottawa as saying that the Iranian government must 'carefully' assess its response to carry out an attack more severe than the one on April 14 while ensuring that the attack is not so severe as to trigger a full-scale war. According to him, this is a 'delicate and dangerous balance that Iran, Hezbollah, and their allies must maintain.' The Israeli newspaper Times of Israel reported on Sunday, August 14, citing an expert, that the most likely scenario is a direct missile and drone attack by Iran on Israel simultaneously with Hezbollah's attacks. According to him, most attacks will be carried out from Iranian and Lebanese territory. This expert added that while simultaneous attacks from all fronts would complicate matters for Israel's air defense systems, Israel would be able to handle the attacks from the Islamic Republic and its proxies. He believes that unlike the April attack, which targeted an airbase in southern Israel and a military base in the Golan Heights, this time more targets are likely to be attacked. An Israeli expert told Al Monitor that neither Iran, Hezbollah, nor Israel intends to start an all-out war. He added that if Israel attacks Iran's nuclear facilities, Iran will instruct Hezbollah to attack Israel with full force. Another Israeli expert also told Al Monitor that the Iranian government and its proxies will launch a coordinated attack on Israel and, compared to the late April attack, will target a broader geographic area of Israel. However, the Islamic Republic will not use all its capabilities in this attack. A political science professor at the American University of Lebanon also told Al Jazeera that the attacks by Iran and its proxies, particularly Hezbollah, on Israel will be coordinated and will be carried out in a way that does not lead to a regional war. However, based on some other analyses, the response from the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah will be severe. According to another scenario, Hezbollah will attack Israeli military bases or sensitive infrastructure such as Haifa refineries or the port of Haifa and will attempt to seize kibbutzim in northern Israel by crossing the common border. According to this scenario, at the same time, dormant Hamas cells in Israel and the West Bank will attack Jews, resulting in high casualties among Israelis. Politico also proposed this scenario, stating that in order to minimize the time available for Israeli and allied responses and also to engage part of their defensive capabilities, Iran's proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq will launch a barrage of missiles towards Israel. According to this analysis, the goal of the Islamic Republic with such a scenario is to impose real costs on Israel to deter it from carrying out deadly attacks on Tehran's proxy group leaders. Axios reported on Wednesday, August 17, recalling the threatening remarks made by Hassan Nasrallah on Tuesday, noted that the editor of the newspaper Al-Akhbar, close to Hezbollah, wrote on the front page that Tel Aviv is likely to be targeted and civilians will be killed. The newspaper wrote that the major center of the organization that decided to kill Foad Shaker and participated in it will be targeted in such an attack. Axios added that the newspaper close to Hezbollah likely meant the command center of the Israeli army or Mossad or other intelligence agency bases in northern Tel Aviv, all of which are close to civilian neighborhoods, increasing the likelihood of civilian casualties among Israelis. Paul Salem, an analyst at the Middle East Institute, suggested that the confrontation between the Iranian government and Hezbollah with Israel could lead to two scenarios: an informal ceasefire after this confrontation or an escalation of tensions into a full-scale regional war, adding that in both cases, the U.S. will support Israel. Senior Israeli officials have repeatedly warned in recent days and weeks, referring to the country's defensive and offensive capabilities, that they will respond severely to any attack. Jewish Chronicle reported on Friday, August 18, that officials in the U.S.-led coalition to defend Israel warned the country not to respond excessively to a potential Iranian and proxy attack. According to this report, the difficulty of successfully attacking Iran's underground nuclear facilities and the 'humiliating' nature of attacking proxy groups in response to a direct Iranian attack may lead Israel to attack military centers such as missile depots or Iran's naval bases. Regardless of the timing, method, intensity, and scope of the 'imminent' confrontation between the Iranian government and/or its proxy groups with Israel, most experts believe that the Middle East has never been closer to an all-out regional war than it is now.