Analysts' Assessment of the Islamic Republic's Missile Attack: Iran's Government Made a Major Strategic Mistake

Four political and military analysts, following the Islamic Republic's missile attack on Israel on Tuesday, October 1, which was described as 'brazen' by U.S. President Joe Biden, told Voice of America that the Iranian government made a major strategic mistake and that Israel has the capacity for a broader response. Hooshang Hassan-Yari, a military and strategic affairs expert, discussed the dimensions of this attack and the strategic mistakes of the Iranian government, stating: 'The Islamic Republic claims that this attack was in response to the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, and Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, by Israel. However, this attack did not consider Iran's national interests, indicating the strategic weakness of the Islamic Republic.' He emphasized that despite billions of dollars in investment and four decades of effort, the Islamic Republic has failed to achieve the desired military deterrent power. Mr. Hassan-Yari added that militarily, this attack was carried out using a large number of ballistic missiles, but it appears that it did not inflict serious damage on Israel, and this failure indicates that Iran has not achieved its military objectives. He believes that Israel's response will not be limited and will likely involve a serious and extensive attack on the military infrastructure of the Islamic Republic. This military and strategic expert also pointed to the possibility of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and the opportunity to destroy critical infrastructure of the Islamic Republic, adding: 'The Islamic Republic made a major strategic mistake with the attack on Tuesday and has given Israel a pretext; similar to the pretexts that Hamas and Hezbollah had previously given to Israel, and we are now witnessing the consequences.' Saeed Qasemi-Nejad, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, also responded to Voice of America's question about how symbolic the Islamic Republic's missile attack on Israel was, saying: 'The claim that the Islamic Republic fired 200 missiles merely to make a symbolic response but deliberately did not hit important targets is not very accurate.' He pointed out: 'If the Islamic Republic truly intended not to hit anything, it would not have carried out such an attack, and if Iran's technology is weaker against Israel and has not been able to target strategic objectives, that is another discussion.' Mr. Qasemi-Nejad added that the Islamic Republic has been in a strategic deadlock over the past year; it has lost the ability to defend its proxy forces, and at the same time, Hamas has been largely destroyed, and Israel has eliminated a significant portion of the leadership and elite of Hezbollah, which has not responded to Israeli attacks in the past week. He stated: 'The Islamic Republic, despite firing hundreds of missiles and drones in Farvardin (April), was unable to successfully hit any important strategic targets in Israel.' Saeed Qasemi-Nejad said that the Israelis currently have the capacity for a broader response given the extensive attack by the Islamic Republic. The hope of the Islamic Republic is that the Biden administration, like in the past, will prevent this response. However, it seems that Israel will pay less attention to the Biden administration's requests this time. Amir Taheri, a journalist, told Voice of America that this attack occurred at a time when some officials inside Iran are trying to maintain their composure, but the pressure for retaliation is also intense, and Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, typically tries to balance these two pressures. He added that in this context, reports have emerged of a recent meeting between the Russian Prime Minister and Iranian officials, in which it was stated that this attack was communicated to the United States and aimed at demonstrating Iran's military capabilities without causing damage to others. This journalist emphasized the mistake of the Islamic Republic's missile attack, adding that this situation allows Israel to appear as a victim and claim it is defending itself. Mr. Taheri believes that since the beginning of Hamas's attacks, indirect talks between the Islamic Republic and the United States have continued through Oman and Qatar to keep both sides in control of the situation, and during this time, the Islamic Republic has halted its proxy attacks against American targets and has tried to avoid direct confrontation. He pointed to reports that 12 countries have played a role in countering the Islamic Republic's missiles, indicating that Iran, despite spending large sums on its proxy forces, including $700 to $800 million for Hezbollah, has not achieved results. Jalil Roshandel, a political and military analyst, also discussed the impact of the Islamic Republic's missile attack on the status of proxy groups, especially Hezbollah, stating: 'It is unclear who is making decisions for Hezbollah and whether it is currently worthwhile for this group to carry out extensive military operations against Israel.'