Analytical Article | Will the Israel-Hamas War Change the Face of the Middle East?

The terrorist attack by the militant group Hamas, which resulted in the deaths of at least 1,400 people, and Israel's declaration of war against this group with the aim of "destroying" Hamas, may mark the beginning of a painful new chapter in a region that has been severely affected by decades of conflict and violence. Current and former officials, analysts, and aid groups warn that this situation is different from all previous conflicts between Hamas and Israel. They caution that Israel's efforts to "eradicate" Hamas this time could make Gaza, Israel, and the Middle East much more chaotic and even "less stable" than ever before. John Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes that the initial terrorist attack was "certainly just the first planned action by Hamas," and the question is what their next sudden action will be. This is a key question facing the Israeli army, which is preparing for a ground assault against Hamas and its allies. Nimrod Goren, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, notes that although Israel has a more powerful army and superior technology, fighting in the streets of Gaza "usually does not end well for the Israeli army." The last military incursion by Israel in 2014 resulted in the deaths of 67 Israeli soldiers. Israeli forces faced fierce resistance and did not penetrate more than a few kilometers into Gaza. This time, Israeli military commanders have promised a much more comprehensive campaign. However, most officials and analysts expect that Israel will face a much tougher test than it did nine years ago. The capabilities of Hamas are significant; U.S. intelligence estimates the number of Hamas fighters to be between 20,000 and 25,000 (and sometimes 30,000 or more), bolstered by support from about 12 other militant groups in Gaza. Hamas's firepower is also very high due to its own initiatives and support from the Islamic Republic of Iran. Joe Truzman, a research analyst at the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, states: "Their arsenal has grown exponentially over the years, and many of the weapons are self-made... They have rockets that target areas near the Gaza border, complemented by mortar fire, and then there are long-range missiles; they can strike major cities like Tel Aviv and Jerusalem." U.S. officials also assess that Hamas has many weapons that allow it to create problems for Israeli forces preparing to enter Gaza. Hamas also demonstrated its ability to use drones in its initial attack on Israel. It is also believed to possess drones that can attack the Israeli Navy. Truzman says: "They act like an army. About 10 to 12 armed terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip are all affiliated with Hamas and coordinate with each other during conflict." Gaza's tunnels Hamas has also shown that it utilizes a vast system of tunnels beneath Gaza to its advantage. During previous battles with Israel, Hamas used the tunnels to deploy rocket units and escape quickly to avoid retaliatory strikes, and in 2014, it ambushed Israeli forces in these tunnels. Rafael Cohen, a senior political scientist at the RAND Institute, says: "If you really want to eradicate Hamas and crush this military organization... you have to fight underground." Fighting Hamas above ground will also be difficult for Israeli forces. Thomas Trask, a retired American general, warns: "The way Hamas spreads its forces underground in homes and apartments in every corner of the city is really challenging... This will be a very tough neighborhood-to-neighborhood battle." Israel is likely to enter the battle with armored vehicles, tanks, and bulldozers, but the narrow neighborhoods of Gaza may complicate advances. Gaza, a narrow strip located on the border of Israel and the Mediterranean coast, is about 40 kilometers long and at its widest point 13 kilometers wide, and some say it may be the most densely populated area in the world, housing two million Palestinians. If Israel wants to fulfill its commitment to eliminate Hamas, its forces must penetrate much deeper into this area than they did before leaving Gaza in 2005. The closed neighborhoods St. Jones, director of the International Security Program at CSIS, says: "...militant groups... have precise information from the streets and alleys, underground facilities, tunnels, and buildings in Gaza, so... Israeli army soldiers... must contend with improvised explosive devices, suicide bombers, anti-tank missiles, RPGs, and drones." However, the closed neighborhoods of Gaza may complicate advances, and it is civilians who are caught between Hamas forces and Israeli forces. Mustafa Tohani, a senior analyst on Palestinian affairs at the International Crisis Group, said: "People have nowhere to take refuge. They have no safe rooms. They have no bomb shelters... ultimately, they have no choice but to go to the homes of relatives and friends or to schools and UN centers." By Tuesday, it is estimated that about 600,000 people heeded Israel's requests to leave northern Gaza, which is expected to be the frontline of the attack. However, Jones says that the presence of civilians, some of whom may take up arms, will make the potential Israeli attack even more daunting because, in high-stress situations, militant forces in densely populated urban areas will engage in killings, which will increase civilian casualties. Currently, Israeli airstrikes against Hamas in Gaza have resulted in significant casualties. According to the Gaza Health Ministry [which is under Hamas's responsibility], by Tuesday, Israeli airstrikes had killed about 3,000 people, about a quarter of whom were children, and injured 12,500. Human shields John Kirby, spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council, told reporters on Friday: "They (Hamas) use innocent men, women, and children as human shields... they even block safe routes for civilians trying to escape these urban neighborhoods - which have become war zones." Israeli officials have also repeated these accusations, but Palestinian officials and some aid groups in Gaza have denied these allegations, claiming that the Israeli army has targeted hospitals and schools. Other analysts warn that aside from the accusations, many Palestinians in Gaza are reluctant to leave for fear that they will never be allowed to return. Expansion One of the most prominent concerns is that the war between Israel and Hamas will not be limited to Gaza and will encompass much of the Middle East. The United States, in particular, is worried that [the Islamic Republic of] Iran and its proxy groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, may try to exploit this situation and join the fight against Israel. The U.S. military is increasing its support forces by deploying two aircraft carrier strike groups to the eastern Mediterranean and sending more fighter jets to the region. Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of Defense, stated on Sunday: "These actions demonstrate Washington's decision to deter any state or non-state actor seeking to escalate the war." However, the Islamic Republic of Iran, a long-time supporter of Hamas, has not backed down. Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, wrote on the social media platform "X" on Sunday: "By God's grace, this movement... will lead to the complete victory of the Palestinians." A day earlier, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, the Iranian Foreign Minister, also stated that Tehran or its proxy forces could join this war. It seems that some groups linked to the Islamic Republic are preparing. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has also announced that it is ready for war. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, said: "We will not reveal our next step. But whatever it is, it is linked to what is happening in Gaza." Hezbollah The latest U.S. intelligence estimates indicate that as of September 2022, Hezbollah had nearly 40,000 fighters with "state military capabilities," including air defense systems, Russian anti-ship and anti-tank missiles, precision-guided missiles, and drones. The CSIS also estimates that Hezbollah has about 130,000 missiles at its disposal. Currently, sporadic clashes and missile attacks by Hezbollah have occurred along the Israel-Lebanon border, but U.S. officials have stated that they have not yet seen signs that this Iran-backed group is preparing to enter the war. However, some analysts warn that Hezbollah may have other plans. John Alterman says: "My assessment is that they are willing to limit their contribution to diverting Israel and drawing its resources to the north of the country." Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran, despite its long-standing support for Hamas, there are those who believe that Tehran will be content to stoke the flames of war from a distance. Norman Roule, a former U.S. intelligence director for Iran, says: "Iran's method is to enter a geography, identify an arsonist, bolster, train, and empower it to dominate other arsonists in that region, and then give that arsonist very specific matches to ignite the fire." Foreign fighters U.S. counterterrorism and military officials are also concerned about another threat: the possibility of foreign fighters attempting to join Hamas. Military officials say they are tracking reports that some potential jihadists, including some who have fought for terrorist groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, are interested in entering Israel. One former Western counterterrorism official told Voice of America that Hamas's attack could certainly provoke anyone who sees Israel as an enemy. However, the point is that Gaza is under complete siege, and even if someone wanted to enter Gaza, how they could do so is questionable. Open-ended Currently, the war between Israel and Hamas is ongoing. Israeli planes are targeting militants and suspicious facilities in Gaza, and Hamas and other militant groups continue to bombard Israel with their missiles. Of course, the Israeli government, with U.S. support, may become more daring. Joe Biden said on Sunday that "Israel must respond; they must catch Hamas." And it seems that an Israeli ground assault on Gaza, and fighting on the ground and in underground tunnels, although it has its delays, is inevitable, and its goal is clear: to destroy Hamas, eradicate it in the Gaza Strip, and ensure that they can never rebuild. Amir Avivi, a retired Israeli general and founder of the Israeli Defense and Security Association, says: "However, achieving such a goal will not be quick or easy... to do this, we must regain control of Gaza. Cleaning Gaza of any terrorist presence will take at least several months." However, there are also analysts who do not find such an outcome realistic. They ask: even if such a thing is possible, who will govern and manage Gaza? And what is the endgame for Hamas? And has Hamas considered the consequences of its attack? A group of analysts believes that Hamas has been more successful than it anticipated, but others say that this attack is a life-and-death gamble for Hamas, and they will simply not vacate the field. Mustafa Tohani, an analyst on Palestinian affairs at the International Crisis Group, says: "In the end, no one will win this battle, especially Israel. In any case, Israel will emerge from this battle as a broken society."